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研究生: 姜尚旻
Jiang, Shang-Min
論文名稱: 以雙重差分法探討智慧路邊停車計費系統對道路交通事故之影響-以臺南市為例
Applying difference-in-difference method to investigate the effect of smart on-street parking system on road accidents-A case study of Tainan City
指導教授: 沈宗緯
Shen, Chung-Wei
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 交通管理科學系碩士在職專班
Department of Transportation and Communication Management Science(on-the-job training program)
論文出版年: 2022
畢業學年度: 110
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 55
中文關鍵詞: 智慧路邊停車計費系統雙重差分法路邊停車交通事故
外文關鍵詞: smart on-street parking system, Difference-in-difference method, on-street parking, traffic accident
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  • 過往研究多在探討路邊停車相關行為及其影響。如巡航行為之影響、車流量增減之影響或智慧化之發展等議題,本研究探討智慧路邊停車計費系統建置後,對於道路交通事故之影響。透過交通事故件數變化情形進行研究,探討系統建置後之影響顯著與否。以臺南市為範圍,選取109年6月建置完竣並啟用智慧路邊停車計費系統(第一期)之路段作為研究範圍,逐件挑選刪留範圍內所發生之交通事故樣本,統計分析設置前、後之肇事資料變化情形。
    由於影響肇事發生之因素種類繁多,彼此之間亦可能相互影響,且肇事本身具有隨機性、突發性及不可預測等性質,故本研究將利用雙重差分法(Difference in Difference, DID)進行研究,透過該研究方法將時間差異與組間差異作相互對照,排除我們所未能準確估量、較複雜或難以觀察之因素干擾,環扣在建置智慧路邊停車計費系統與否對於肇事之影響。
    惟本研究最終統計分析結果,不同建置區域有不同之增減影響,且其影響在統計上均顯示為不顯著。故本研究進一步分析相關建置區域所發生之交通事故,其肇事原因、肇事車種及區域人口特性等,是否有其他較明顯之變化存在。就本研究撰寫至今之現有資料,僅可暫論智慧路邊停車計費系統之建置不會顯著影響該地區之道路交通事故產生變化,然尚不能據以推斷該政策之實施對於交通安全之影響不復存在,俟第二期智慧路邊停車計費系統整體建置完竣且更廣為普及時,屆時可再更全面性進一步探討對於交通事故之影響與否。

    In the past, most of the researches discussed on-street parking behavior and its impact. Such as the impact of cruising behavior, the impact of traffic flow increase or decrease, or the development of intelligence. This study explores the impact on road traffic accidents after the implementation of the smart on-street parking system. Through the research on the changes in the number of traffic accidents, it is discussed whether the impact of the system is significant or not. Take Tainan City as the scope, and select the road section that was completed in June 2019 and activated the Smart Street Parking System (Phase 1) as the research scope. Analyze the changes in the accident data before and after the setting.
    This study use the DID method (Difference in Difference, DID) to conduct research. Through this research method, the time difference and the difference between groups will be compared with each other.And the interference of factors that we cannot accurately measure, complex or difficult to observe will be excluded. Focus on the impact of building a smart on-street parking billing system on accidents.
    However, according to the final statistical analysis results of this study, different construction areas have different increases or decreases, and the effects are not statistically significant. Therefore, this study further analyzes the traffic accidents that occurred in the relevant construction areas, the causes of the accidents, the types of vehicles involved in the accident, and the characteristics of the regional population, etc., and whether there are other obvious changes. Based on the current data from the writing of this study, it can only be tentatively stated that the construction of the smart on-street parking system will not significantly affect the changes in road traffic accidents in the area. It cannot be inferred that the implementation of this policy will no longer have an impact on traffic safety.

    第一章 緒論 1 1.1研究背景 1 1.2研究動機 3 1.3研究目的 5 1.4研究範圍 6 1.5研究流程 6 第二章 文獻回顧 8 2.1智慧化系統與收費管理對停車行為影響之相關研究 8 2.1.1 停車收費管理對於停車行為之影響 8 2.1.2 智慧化系統對於停車衍生行為之影響 10 2.2路邊停車相關行為對交通流量影響之相關研究 12 2.2.1 巡航行為之產生 12 2.2.2 巡航行為促使車流量之提升 12 2.2.3 其它因停車所衍生的二次車流行為 13 2.3車流量變化對於交通事故影響之相關研究 15 2.3.1 車流量之大小與肇事之影響 15 2.3.2 路邊停車行為常見之違規態樣 16 2.3.3 易導致肇事之違規態樣 18 2.4 小結 19 第三章 研究資料與方法 20 3.1 應用於比較分析研究方法 20 3.2 雙重差分法 Difference-in-Difference 22 3.3資料蒐集與分類 22 3.3.1 停車格位資料部分 22 3.3.2 實驗組與對照組之選擇 24 3.3.3 肇事資料部分 26 3.4 雙重差分法模型與變項定義 26 第四章 實證結果與研析 28 4.1研究資料剖析 28 4.1.1 資料總覽與分組原則 28 4.1.2 交通事故件數篩選原則 29 4.1.3 篩選後之肇事件數分區綜覽 31 4.2雙重差分法驗證 35 4.2.1 研究前提 35 4.2.2 迴歸分析 36 4.2.3 分區求取迴歸分析結果 37 4.3 兩區特性比較 40 4.3.1東區實驗組路段之肇因分析 40 4.3.2東區實驗組路段之肇事車種分析 42 4.3.3 各項人口數統計比較 45 第五章 結論與建議 48 5.1 結論 48 5.2 研究限制與建議 51 參考文獻 52 中文文獻 52 英文文獻 53

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