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研究生: 林佳蓉
Lin, Chia-Jung
論文名稱: 成交量與未平倉量對期貨價格波動性之關聯性─臺灣期貨市場之實證
指導教授: 許溪南
Hsu, Hsinan
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 企業管理學系碩士在職專班
Department of Business Administration (on the job class)
論文出版年: 2003
畢業學年度: 91
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 41
中文關鍵詞: 價格波動性預期與未預期交易活動未平倉量成交量不對稱性效果
外文關鍵詞: expected and unexpected activity, volume, asymmetric effect, volatility, open interest
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  • 本研究利用三種不同的波動性估計式(歷史波動性估計式、Garman-Klass 模式、高/低價模式)來研究台灣四種股票指數期貨價格波動性與成交量、未平倉量(市場深度)之關係。為了解預期與未預期交易活動對波動性的影響,本研究進一步將交易量與未平倉量分成預期與未預期兩部分進行分析。實證研究發現,未預期交易活動對波動性的影響較預期交易活動為大。在成交量對波動性的不對稱實證裡我們發現臺股小指期具有不對稱效果,然一般而言,正向對波動性的衝擊較負向為大。我們亦發現,未平倉量能降低價格波動性,但其不對稱效果隨波動估計式的不同而有所改變。最後我們發現,Garman-Klass 模式與高/低價模式之配適度約高出歷史波動性估計式一倍左右。

    This paper employs three volatility estimators (historical volatility estimator, Garman-Klass model and High-Low model) to investigate the relations between volatility, volume, and open interest (market depth) in Taiwan for stock index futures. In this study, we partition the trading activities into expected and unexpected components. Evidence suggests that unexpected volume shocks have a large effect on volatility. Further, the relation in Mini-TAIEX futures is asymmetric; on average, the impact of positive unexpected volume shocks on volatility is larger than the impact of negative shocks. Consistent with theories of market depth, this paper shows that large open interest mitigates volatility. However, the asymmetric relation varies among different volatility estimators. Finally, the fitness of Garman-Klass model and High-Low model estimators are twice efficient than historical volatility estimator.

    中文摘要……………………………………………………………………Ⅰ 英文摘要……………………………………………………………………Ⅱ 誌謝…………………………………………………………………………Ⅲ 目錄…………………………………………………………………………Ⅳ 表目錄………………………………………………………………………Ⅴ 第壹章 緒論…………………………………………………………………1 第一節 研究背景與動機……………………………………………………1 第二節 研究目的……………………………………………………………3 第三節 本文的組織架構……………………………………………………4 第貳章 文獻回顧……………………………………………………………5 第一節 混合分配假說………………………………………………………5 第二節 連續資訊到達模型…………………………………………………6 第三節 價格波動性與成交量、未平倉量之關係…………………………7 第四節 星期效應與不對稱效果……………………………………………10 第叁章 研究方法……………………………………………………………12 第一節 歷史波動性估計式…………………………………………………12 第二節 高/低價格波動性估計式與Garman-Klass波動性估計式……….14 第三節 成交量與未平倉量對價格波動性的不對稱效果…………………15 第四節 資料來源與敘述統計………………………………………………16 第肆章 實證結果與分析……………………………………………………19 第一節 前期報酬、前期波動性對當期報酬之條件迴歸分析……………19 第二節 成交量、未平倉量的預期量與未預期量對價格波動性之影響…23 第三節 成交量與未平倉量對價格波動性不對稱效果之迴歸分析………28 第伍章 結論與建議…………………………………………………………33 第一節 結論…………………………………………………………………33 第二節 建議…………………………………………………………………34 參考文獻 ……………………………………………………………………36

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