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研究生: 吳桂燕
Wu, Kuei-Yen
論文名稱: 台灣再生能源電力發展之產業關聯分析
Interindustry Analysis of Renewable Electricity Development in Taiwan
指導教授: 吳榮華
Wu, Jung-Hua
學位類別: 博士
Doctor
系所名稱: 工學院 - 資源工程學系
Department of Resources Engineering
論文出版年: 2018
畢業學年度: 107
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 149
中文關鍵詞: 再生能源電力產業關聯性產值影響就業影響專業結構影響
外文關鍵詞: Renewable electricity, Interindustry linkage, Output impact, Employment impact, Professional structure impact
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  • 2016年起,台灣政府積極推行電力部門能源轉型,除了加速再生能源電力投資,也積極地推動離岸風力發電產業與人才在地化。台灣經濟體內產業關聯性、產值、就業與人才專業結構,將因為再生能源電力部門的出現而有所改變。
    此研究針對再生能源電力發展對整體經濟及個別部門進行兩項主要分析:
    1)產業關聯性: 評估再生能源電力建置與發電部門出現後,部門影響度與感應度變化。另外,分析再生能源電力建置部門之主要供應部門。
    2)經濟影響: 量化2016至2025年期間,再生能源電力的國內投資所產生之產值、就業及人才專業結構影響。
    此研究將台灣2011年產業關聯表以RAS方法更新至2016年,並擷取日本次世代能源系統分析產業關聯表(the Input-Output Table for a Next-Generation Energy System, IONGES)中再生能源電力部門之技術係數,完成2016年擴增產業關聯表。在專業結構係數上,藉由問卷調查獲得再生能源電力企業之專業(或職業)結構百分比。
    研究結果顯示:
    1)化學材料與鋼鐵及基本金屬部門有顯著的影響度與感應度變化。並且,產業發展關鍵部門之鋼鐵及基本金屬、電氣設備與機械設備是太陽能或風力發電建置部門之主要供應部門。
    2)太陽能與風力發電國內投資將帶動年平均產值為5,890億元新台幣,相當於2006-2016期間年平均產值之1.77%,產值乘數為3.33。國內投資總共創造142萬個再生能源電力相關部門之就業,年平均新增再生能源就業占總就業人數約0.12%,就業乘數為0.42。再生能源電力發展期間之人才需求,在再生能源部門51.90%的新增專業需求以專業技術人員為主。然而,在製造部門,55.55%的新增專業需求以基層勞動人員或操作員為主。
    此研究藉由整合台灣專業結構問卷調查與日本再生能源電力部門技術與就業係數,進行全面性的產業關聯性研究。此研究不僅擴充台灣產業關聯表於再生能源電力發展之應用,也量化其產業關聯性與經濟影響,期能作為政策制定者之參考。

    Since 2016, Taiwan’s government has actively been implementing energy transition in the electricity supply sector. Besides speeding up to invest renewable electricity, public and private sectors also actively promote the offshore wind power industry and talent localisation. As the emerging of renewable electricity sectors, interindustry linkages, output, employment and professional structures within Taiwan's economy will be influenced.
    The study purposes aim two segments derived from renewable electricity development at Taiwan's economy-wide and sectoral levels, shown as followings:
    1)For interindustry linkages, estimating varieties of the index of power of dispersion (IPD) and the index of sensitivity of dispersion (ISD), after the emergence of renewable electricity construction and operation and maintenance (O&M) sectors. Furthermore, analysing major supplying sectors of renewable electricity construction sectors.
    2)For economic impacts, quantifying output, employment, and professional structure impacts, derived from domestic investments of renewable electricity from 2016 to 2025.
    This study uses the RAS technique to update Taiwan’s Input-Output (I-O) table of 2011, and extracts technical and employment coefficients of renewable electricity sectors from Japan’s “Input-Output Table for a Next-Generation Energy System” to form the extended I-O table of 2016. For professional coefficients, this study obtains percentages of professional (or occupational) structures from renewable electricity enterprises by questionnaires.
    The study results show that:
    1)The Chemical Materials, and the Iron, Steel and Miscellaneous Metals have significant varieties both on the IPD and ISD. Moreover, key sectors of industry development, such as the Iron, Steel and Miscellaneous Metals, the Electrical Equipment, and the Mechanical Equipment, are major supplying sectors for photovoltaic and wind power construction sectors.
    2)The average annual output adds about 589 billion NTD, equivalent to 1.77% of the average annual gross output between 2006 and 2016; the output multiplier is 3.33 derived from photovoltaic and wind power domestic investment. It also totally creates 142 thousand jobs in renewable electricity sectors and the average annual added job in renewable electricity sectors accounts for about 0.12% of total employments; the employment multiplier is 0.42. During the renewable electricity development, in the renewable electricity sector, 51.90% of the professional demand adds on professionals and technicals. However, in manufacturing sectors, 55.55% of the professional demand adds on craft related workers and elementary labourers.
    This study is comprehensiveness by integrating Taiwan's professional structure questionnaires and Japanese technical and employment coefficients of renewable electricity sectors. Moreover, it not only enlarges the applicability of Taiwan's I-O table for renewable electricity development, but also quantifies interindustry linkages and economic impacts. Furthermore, it is expected to serve as one of references for policy makers.

    中文摘要.................................................Ⅰ 英文延伸摘要............................................II 誌謝...................................................IV LIST OF FIGURES......................................VIII LIST OF TABLES.........................................Ⅹ CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION.................................1 1 Background and Motivation.............................1 2 Approaches and Purposes...............................2 3 Scopes, and Structures................................2 4 Importance and Outline................................7 CHAPTER 2 SITUATIONS OF THE ELECTRICITY SUPPLY SECTOR AND RENEWABLE ENERGY SECTORS...........................10 1 Electricity Supply...................................10 1.1 Taiwan’s Electricity Supply and Economic Growth....10 1.2 Taiwan’s Electricity Supply and Consumption........13 2 Energy Transition in the Electricity Sector..........17 2.1 The Global Status of Energy Transition.............17 2.2 The Roadmap of Taiwan’s Energy Transition..........21 3 The Status of Renewable Energy Sectors in Taiwan.....22 3.1 Photovoltaic Technology............................22 3.2 Wind Power Technology..............................25 4 The Status of Renewable Energy Sectors in Japan......30 CHAPTER 3 LITERATURE REVIEW...........................33 1 Output and Inerindustry Linkages on Renewable Energy.33 2 Employments on Renewable Energy......................35 3 Professional Structures on Renewable Energy..........38 4 Application of the Input-Output Model on Renewable Energy.................................................39 CHAPTER 4 METHODOLOGIES...............................46 1 Theoretical Framework of the Input-output Model......46 2 Analysis of Interindustry Linkage....................48 3 The RAS Technique....................................49 4 Augmented New Sectors for the Extended Input-Output Table..................................................51 5 Multipliers for Output and Employment................53 6 The Mechanism of Employment Impacts..................57 CHAPTER 5 DATA COLLECTION AND PROCESSING..............59 1 The Original Input-Output Table of 2011..............59 2 The Updated Input-Output Table of 2016 and the GDP Deflator Table.........................................61 3 The Extended Input-Output Table Covering the Renewable Energy Sector..........................................62 4 Investment Level (Changes of Domestic Final Demands) .......................................................64 5 Employment Coefficients and Professional Structures..71 5.1 Employment and Professional Coefficients of 2016 in 42 sectors.............................................72 5.2 Employment Coefficients of Renewable Energy Sectors................................................75 5.3 Professional Coefficients of Renewable Energy Sectors................................................76 CHAPTER 6 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION......................82 1 Interindustry Linkage................................82 2 Economic Impacts Derived From Renewable Electricity Development............................................89 2.1 Output Impacts of Renewable electricity Development............................................89 2.2 Employment Impacts of Renewable electricity Development...........................................100 2.3 Professional Structure Impacts of Renewable Electricity Development...............................108 2.3.1 Business Status of Renewable Electricity Sectors...............................................108 2.3.2 Professional Structure Impacts..................111 2.4 Summary of Chapter................................118 CHAPTER 7 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION..............121 1 Interindustry Linkage...............................121 2 Economic Impacts....................................122 2.1 Output Impacts....................................122 2.2 Employment Impacts................................122 2.3 Business Status and Professional Structures.......123 3 Policy Implications.................................124 4 Limitations.........................................127 5 Future Research.....................................128 References............................................130 Appendix..............................................142

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