在過去研究都市發展的課題中，對於服務都市居民生活機能的運輸系統，多顯示其扮演關鍵角色；而相當規模的都市更藉由捷運系統提供穩定、可靠、有效率的運輸服務，期望使都市可以永續健康發展。本研究即以捷運與都市發展互動關係為主軸，嘗試建立兩者間之系統動態模型，探討捷運系統引導都市發展的趨勢，及都市發展下捷運經營的狀況。首先歸類都市高度、密度、精度與巧度各面向的指標，並參考過去建構都市活動系統的邏輯，回顧捷運系統對都市影響的研究成果，利用系統動態方法，簡化後建立土地利用、社經活動、運輸服務需求及捷運系統實務操作構面的相互影響模型。

過去有關捷運系統服務範圍、路線對於土地使用影響的研究，多就一個站區或特定捷運路線影響範圍的微觀旅行行為，或分析單一土地使用變數的變化。本研究著眼在捷運系統對於整體都市的發展影響評估，以台北捷運通車後各項台北市社經發展和捷運資料為基礎，運用模型進行模擬，並於系統內探討永續的捷運系統模式，後轉移此模式以預測即將通車的高雄捷運以及高雄市發展趨勢。另為輔助在系統動態關係中未能表達的捷運沿線與非沿線差異，續以地理資訊系統軟體展示台北捷運部分沿線商業與建物的相關統計。

綜合以上系統動態模擬結果和空間統計呈現的發展結果，台北市及高雄市在捷運營運後，在土地使用的變化方面，短期皆不容易顯示捷運所帶來的差異，但都市的人口密度都有下降的趨勢。而捷運系統對於提升都市居民的生活便利性、可及性等皆有幫助，會吸引大量旅次且創造車站周邊的經濟效益，但後續的路網建設才是促使車站周邊發展的關鍵。但由於北、高兩市的產業特性、都市發展週期等皆不相同，高雄市腹地較小且具較少可能搭乘人次，雖然高雄捷運在營運上不致於長期負債，但可能要藉由其他投資利益才能回收捷運系統的龐大投資成本。因此在規劃捷運及擴增路線時，必須衡量社會綜合利益與付出的沈沒成本和社會成本，劃分地區內與區域間的運輸系統定位，達成運輸系統之間的綜效。

Most of past urban development studies mentioned the transportation system served habitants’ live and needs revealed playing the key role in city. A City in large scale usually provides stable, reliable and efficient transportation service to ensure this area keeping healthy and sustainable develops. This study builds the system dynamic model to simulate the interaction between mass rapid transit system (MRT) and urban development, to probe into their sustainability. After searching and collecting references of urban compactness, this study tried to categorize indicators into “High”, “Density”, “Efficiency”, and “Flexibility”, then referring past studies about the logic of building urban activities system.

There is so many studies focus on the relationship between MRT and types of cities, such as land use influenced by the service scope and routes of MRT. But they often point at changes in one station area, around-area of special MRT route or single land-use variance. This study based on the social-economic datum after Taipei MRT had began serving, and dynamic factor had simulated between MRT operation and financial affairs which were structured by model, confer the sustainable MRT pattern and observe land-use changes. Then this study transfers the model to use Kaohsiung datum, forecasts Kaohsiung city and MRT. However, for assisting in distinguish between alongside and away the MRT route, displaying networks of MRT effect in metropolis, this study use GIS to show statistic datum along the mass transit line in Taipei.

Through the simulation process and spatial statistic result, Taipei city and Kaohsiung city can’t display changes on land-use easily in short term after MRT working, but they all have trend of decreasing urban population density. MRT is helpful to promote urban habitants’ convenience and accessibility, attract mass trips and economic benefits nearby stations; yet follow-up route constructions are the key point of development. Because two cities have different industry composition and development period, there is small region and less probable riders in Kaohsiung. Although Kaohsiung MRT is not expected to get into debt chronically，but huge investment will hard to retrieve. Therefore, when planning or extend MRT route, we have to try achieving the “Synergy” of transportation system.

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