本研究探討電信業門市於改制前台南市區高密度展店下的月營收額變化，以台灣電信三雄旗下所屬門市為例進行資料蒐集與分析。台灣地區手機門號數在2015年6月行動通信用戶數達到2,932萬戶，相當於平均每百居民有125個行動通信用戶，顯示出台灣手機使用者早已經超越了人手一機的情形。由於電信業者方案的同質性高，加盟通路的大舉擴展建立，可能會損及直營的銷售利益，使直營店生存環境受到擠壓。有鑑於此，本研究採用Fotheringham提出之目的地競爭模型，以GIS軟體為輔，計算模型中所須之距離參數，加入空間交互作用參數凝聚與競爭效果，計算台南市區中電信業門市平均營收額，並以電信業者年報為依據，驗證此模型的解釋能力。並透過空間統計的方法，得出目前門市之營收分布狀況。研究結果中可知，加入空間作用後的目的地競爭模型對於各門市營收額可以有良好的解釋能力，並將模型所得出之結果代入空間統計後可知目前台南市區中人口較為密集的地區如中西區、東區，門市營業額已呈現低營收群聚的現象，反觀市中心外圍地區如安南區，營收額呈現高營收群聚現象，由此可知電信業門市高密度展店策略於台南市中心已達瓶頸，未來展店區位應朝向市中心外圍地區發展，避免過度的競爭造成各門市皆無利可圖的現象發生，而現存之各門市如欲提高自身營業額，則可藉由管理上的方法增加門市的吸引力，增加消費者選擇的機率。

This research aims to explore the revenue change of high-density expansion strategy for services centers in Tainan area. We use telecommunication services centers as an example to conduct analysis and collect data. The phone numbers used in Taiwan reached more than 29 millions in June 2015, equivalent to an average of 125 per hundred mobile phone users. This shows Taiwan mobile phone users have surpassed the assumption that a person has only one phone. The nature of communications industry includes service centers’ price harmonization, high similarity of commodity suppliers and similar prices of different communication products with quality and high consistency (especially in stores with the same systems). So the heterogeneity of location become the main reason for competition between stores. Hence, the objective of our research about the services centers is to figure out the influence of overall benefit of enterprise if services centers continue to develop branches. Our methodology uses Competing Destinations Model to calculate the probability that customers choose each center. Then, we use historical data from telecom industry to verify the newly created model. Besides, our research also uses spatial statistics to evaluate the revenue distribution patterns of centers. The result indicates that Competing Destinations Model used in high-density development in urban area could end up with reasonable explanation. If telecom industries want to expand their centers, it must set them outside the city center. The existing centers should use managerial methods to increase their probability chosen by customers.

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