台灣地區之堰塞湖多發生於人員與機具難以抵達之山區，災害發生之資訊往往無法於第一時間取得，而堰塞湖天然災害之應變時間極短，若能預測堰塞湖天然壩之形成區位，並針對堰塞湖潛勢區位進行監控，將能對堰塞湖及其所衍生之災害進行有效防治。
崩塌型堰塞湖之形成條件須考慮：崩塌土體移動距離能否抵達對岸、崩塌總土方量是否足夠、崩塌過程中坡面崩塌之土砂供應速率與河川水流侵蝕速率之關係三項條件。而本研究主要透過等價摩擦係數理論進行崩塌土體移動距離之評估；再以崩塌體積與落入河道堆積高之定量關係決定是否能高於水深滿足填補河道行水區之崩塌最小體積；並針對水流對河川之土砂侵蝕速率及崩塌對河川之土砂供應速率之比值關係進行室內實驗及現場調查，以量化崩塌過程中土砂供應及水流侵蝕對堰塞湖形成條件之關係，從實驗之結果建立堰塞湖天然壩形成判別指標LDFI (Landslide Dam Formed Index)，當LDFI > 54時，堰塞湖天然壩形成；反之，當LDFI < 47時，堰塞湖天然壩無法形成。本研究建立之堰塞湖天然壩形成條件，配合崩塌潛勢區位之河道地形及河川水理量等資訊，即可進一步判定崩塌潛勢區是否為堰塞湖潛勢區。

The basic data of initial landslide dam is very difficult to obtain due to its faraway and mountainous location. Because of time constraints and lack of information, how to make a reasonable assessment on the potential landslide dam hazard trend comes to very important. The criterion to be considered on formation of landslide dams are as follows; whether the landslide materials can reach across the river, whether the natural dam resulting from the collapse would cram the river 's active channel, and the competitive relationship between slope collapse and river discharge. In this study, the movement distance was estimated by equivalent friction coefficient theory. Then consider the quantitative relation between the minimum volume of the collapse, the height of natural dam and blocking river. And the ratio of sediment supply rate and flow erosion rate was established by experiment and field investigation, the ratio can be defined as LDFI (Landslide Dam Formed Index). The result can be used for the discriminant of landslide dam formed or not. Landslide formed when LDFI value larger then 54, and landslide unformed when LDFI value smaller then 47.By using this study along with the data of river terrain and the water flow, we can determine whether the potential landside area could trigger a landslide dam formation.

1. 中川博次, 辻本哲郎，水流による砂れきの移動機構に関する基礎的研究，土木學會論文報告集，第244號, 頁71-80，1975。
2. 中華水土保持學會，水土保持手冊，2006。
3. 匡尚富，斜面崩塌引起的天然壩形成機制和形狀預測，泥砂研究，第4期，頁50-59，1994。
4. 林震岩，多變量分析SPSS的操作與應用，台北：智勝文化，2007。
5. 林廣榮，堰塞湖類型及潰決機制之探討，國立屏東科技大學森林系碩士班專題討論報告，2006。
6. 周必凡，泥石流防治指南，科學出版社，1991。
7. 胡卸文、黃潤秋、施裕兵、呂小平、朱海勇、汪雪瑞，唐家山滑坡堵江機制及堰塞壩潰壩模式分析，岩石力學與工程學報，第28卷第1期，頁181-189，2009。
8. 胡廣韜，滑坡動力學，地質出版社，1995。
9. 高橋保、匡尚富，天然ダムの決壊による土石流の規模に関する研究，京都大學防災研究所年報，第31期，B-2，頁601-615，1988。
10. 柴賀軍、劉漢超、張倬元，滑坡堵江的基本條件，地質災害與環境保護，第7卷第1期，頁41-46，1996。
11. 陳樹群，堰塞湖潰決機制與減災工法研究，中華水土保持學報，第30卷第4期，頁299-312，1999。
12. 陳樹群、許中立，莫拉克颱風形成之堰塞湖及危險度評估，地工技術，第122期，第77-86頁，2009。
13. 陳昆廷、臧運忠、郭玉樹、呂明鴻、謝正倫，莫拉克颱風引致堰塞湖之案例分析，中華防災學刊，第2卷第1期，頁43-50，2010。
14. 呂明鴻，堰塞湖天然壩體形狀預測，國立成功大學水利及海洋工程研究所碩士論文，2010。
15. 蔡元融，流域水砂生產及運動模式之研究，國立成功大學水利及海洋工程研究所博士論文，2012。
16. 林務局屏東林區管理處，崩坪坑集水區土砂災害調查分析與治理規劃期末報告書，2008。
17. Bagnold RA., The flow of cohesionless grains in fluids,Trans. Roy. Soc. London Ser. A, 249: 235-297, 1954.
18. Casagli, N., Ermini, L., and Rosati, G., Determining grain size distribution of the material composing landslide dams in the Northern Apennine: sampling and processing methods, Engineering Geology, Volume 69, Issues 1-2, pp. 83-97, 2003.
19. Costa, J.E. and Schuster, R.L., The formation and failure of natural dams, Geological Society of America Bulletin, 100 pp. 1054-1068, 1988.
20. Einstein, H. A., The bed-load function for sediment transportation in open channel flows, USDA, Soil Conservation Service, Technical Bulletin, No. 1026, pp. 1-71, 1950.
21. Fausto Guzzettia, Francesca Ardizzonea, Mauro Cardinalia, Mauro Rossia, Daniela Valigib, Landslide volumes and landslide mobilization rates in Umbria, central Italy, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 279(3-4)pp. 222–229, 2009.
22. Fernandez-Luque, R., “Erosion And Transport Of Bed-Load Sediment,“ Journal of Hydraulic Research, Volume 14, Issue 2, pp. 127-144, 1976.
23. Heim A., Bergsturz und Menschenleben. Zürich: Fretz und Wasmuth, 1932.
24. HUNGR O., Rock avalanche occurrence, process and modeling, Landslides form Massive Rock Slope Failure, NATO Science Series Volume 49, pp 243-266, 2006.
25. Okura et al., Topography and volume effects on travel distance of surface failure, Engineering Gelogy, Volume 67, Issues3-4, pp. 243-254, 2003.
26. Ming-Hsu Li, Rui-Tang Sung, Jia-Jyun Dong, Chyi-Tyi Lee, Chien-Chih Chen, “The formation and breaching of a short-lived landslide dam at Hsiaolin Village,Taiwan — Part II: Simulation of debris flow with landslide dam breach,” Engineering Geology, 123(1-2) pp. 60-71, 2011.
27. Nagakawa., H., and Tsujimoto, T., “Sand bed instability due to bed-load motion,“Journal of the Hydraulics Division, Volume 106, No. 12, pp.2029-2051, 1980.
28. Rijn, L. C. van, "Sediment Pick-Up Functions," Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, ASCE, 110 (10), 1984.
29. Scheidegger, A.E., On the prediction of the reach and velocity of catastrophic landslides, Rock Mechanics 5, pp. 231- 236, 1973.
30. Yalin, M. S., “Mechanics of sediment transport,“ 2nd Ed., Pergamon Press, Oxford, England, 1977.