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研究生: 蔡禮鴻
Tsai, Li-hung
論文名稱: 框架理性:以展望理論檢驗預期效用理論的普遍性
Framed Rationality: Examining Universality of Expected Utility Theory by Prospect Theory
指導教授: 賴世剛
Lai, Shih-kung
陳彥仲
Chen, Yen-jong
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 規劃與設計學院 - 都市計劃學系
Department of Urban Planning
論文出版年: 2009
畢業學年度: 97
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 127
中文關鍵詞: 預期效用框架決策風險展望
外文關鍵詞: Expected Utility, Risk, Prospect, Frames, Decision Making
相關次數: 點閱:86下載:10
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  • Kahneman和Tversky(1979)經由實驗發現,受試者會受到問題框架(frames)的影響,做出違反預期效用理論(Expected Utility Theory,EUT)的風險下決策,因而提出展望理論(Prospect Theory,PT)來替代EUT,做為一個個體於風險下決策的描述性理論(descriptive theory)。然而,PT的實驗,並未探討受試者在實驗中所選擇的賭博,是否為預期效用(Expected Utility,EU)最大的賭博。換言之,僅根據該實驗的實驗結果,並無法完全推翻以EU最大化假設為基礎的EUT。基於此,本研究提出一個「框架理性」(Framed Rationality,FR)假說,假設個體在框架的影響下,仍保有追求某種偏好衡量基準最大化的決策特性。為檢驗此假說,本研究除了複製PT實驗之外,並另外進行一項可用以取得PT實驗中,各賭博對受試者之EU的實驗,依此來探討受試者在PT實驗中的決策,是否仍遵循EU最大化的原則。本研究除了探討EU此最大化基準之外,亦探討預期價值(Expected Value,EV)和經決策權數(decision weight)修正過後的EV、EU(簡寫為EVdw、EUdw)等基準。研究結果發現,在EUdw基準之下,有充分證據證明個體之風險下決策有符合FR假說的傾向。因此,當EUdw基準經相關研究證實係描述性有效時,本研究提出之FR假說亦應同時成立。

    In 1979, Kahneman and Tversky found the subjects of an experiment made decisions that violated Expected Utility Theory (EUT) because of the influence of problem frames. They proposed to replace EUT with Prospect Theory (PT) as a descriptive theory of individual decision making under risk. However, the PT experiment did not examine whether the gambles the subjects chose maximized expected utility (EU) between alternatives. In other words, they rejected EUT based on the principle of EU maximization only by the incomplete results of this experiment. In the research, we propose a Framed Rationality (FR) hypothesis in that individuals still maximize some measuring criterion of risky preferences subject to frames of questioning. In order to examine this hypothesis, we not only replicated the PT experiment, but also implemented two experiments that measured the subjects’ utilities of the gambles in the PT experiment. We tested whether the subjects still conformed to the principle of EU maximization in these two experiments. In this study, we not only tested the EU criterion, but also test the Expected Value (EV), EVdw and EUdw. EVdw and EUdw are the EV and EU adjusted by decision weights. There is sufficient evidence supporting the FR hypothesis under the EUdw criterion; therefore, the FR hypothesis is confirmed if the EUdw criterion is considered as valid as a descriptive model of choices.

    第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究緣起 1 第二節 研究目的與論文架構 4 第三節 都市規劃與決策 5 第二章 文獻 7 第一節 個體理性 7 一、完全理性(Perfect Rationality) 7 二、有限理性(Bounded Rationality) 7 三、框架理性(Framed Rationality) 10 第二節 風險下決策理論 11 一、預期價值(Expected Value) 11 二、預期效用理論(Expected Utility Theory) 11 三、展望理論(Prospect Theory) 16 四、累積展望理論(Cumulative Prospect Theory) 26 第三章 實驗 30 第一節 目的 30 一、在EV和EU之偏好衡量基準下 32 二、在EVdw和EUdw之偏好衡量基準下 33 第二節 方法 35 一、第一次實驗 35 二、第二次實驗 40 第三節 分析 59 一、項目 59 二、統計檢定項目與方法 62 第四章 結果 64 第一節 PT複製實驗 64 一、實驗結果 64 二、結果分析 66 第二節 效用引出實驗結果分析 70 第三節 FR分析 74 一、PT複製實驗和效用引出實驗之實驗順序影響分析 83 二、實驗模式影響分析 89 三、FR假說檢驗分析 96 四、決策權數影響分析 101 第四節 綜合分析 105 第五章 結論與建議 106 第一節 結論 106 第二節 建議 107 一、未來可改良的部分 107 二、可進一步探討的議題 109 參考文獻 111 附錄一 PT複製實驗 115 附錄二 第一次效用引出實驗 121 附錄三 第二次效用引出實驗之實驗題 125 附錄四 實驗說明紙條 127

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