本篇研究探討企業經理人的特質-過度自信與其從事盈餘管理行為的關聯性，並分別以裁決性應記數、實質盈餘管理作為判別盈餘管理行為的變數，且進而探討過度自信經理人是否相較理性經理人傾向達成盈餘門檻。後續亦加入外部投資人情緒探討過度自信經理人是否受投資人情緒影響進而改變其從事盈餘管理行為。

本篇研究之樣本為2007至2017年間美國S&P 500公司之盈餘管理與經理人資料，為了修正縱橫資料因橫斷面與時間序列相依而產生係數估計上的問題，本研究採用One-way cluster-robust standard errors分析方法維持各變數間關係之穩定性。經由實證結果得知，過度自信之經理人與進行裁決性應記數盈餘管理存在負向顯著的關係，與異常活動現金流和異常裁決性費用存在顯著正相關，而與盈餘門檻間呈現顯著負相關，由以上結果可知過度自信經理人相較理性經理人傾向從事正向(負向)的盈餘管理行為。對於作為調節變數的經理人情緒，本篇分別探討兩種投資人情緒(Baker et al, 2006綜合投資人情緒指標與S&P500選擇權隱含波動率VIX指標)做為調節變數，然實證結果證實經理人情緒確實對於過度經理人使用盈餘管理有顯著影響效果。

本篇研究在更進一步探討經理人過度自信特質在受投資人情緒下的行為研究，也希望同時提供內外部利益關係人評斷公司管理階層決策風險的依據。

The purpose of this thesis is to understand the relationship of CEO’s characteristics-overconfidence, and earnings management behavior. We develop a series of measurement of earnings management, including accrual-based earnings management and real activities manipulation to observe whether overconfident CEOs tend to use both accrual-based and real activities manipulation to display company’s earnings well-performance. Also we test whether overconfident CEO tend to achieve three earnings threshold. We also take into account the moderating effect of investor sentiment to strengthen the relationship between CEO overconfidence and earnings management.

The sample collects from the U.S. S&P500 company, and includes the period from 2007 to 2017. In order to correct the standard error generates from cross-sectional and time series data set, we adopt one-way cluster-robust standard error methodology to improve the robustness effect between each variable. The empirical results show that the overconfident CEO has a strong and negative relationship with accrual-based earnings management. And have strong and positive relationship with real activities manipulation included both abnormal cash flow and abnormal discretionary expense. And also have a strong and negative relationship with achieving earnings target. As to the moderating effect of investor sentiment, the results show that both sentiment indicator variable (Baker et al, 2006 and S&P500 option VIX) have strong moderating effect on overconfidence CEO to implement earnings management.

The thesis calls for more research to investigate this important topic that not only advances our understanding of CEO overconfidence characteristic and earnings management behaviors during different investor sentiment atmosphere, but also provides useful insights to help inside and outside stakeholders to manage their risk.

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