| 研究生: |
奧馬爾 Lopez, Omar Alberto Ramirez |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
建構經濟政策不確定性指數-以阿根廷為例 Construction of an Economic Policy Uncertainty Index in Argentina |
| 指導教授: |
江明憲
Chiang, Ming-Hsien |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
管理學院 - 國際企業研究所 Institute of International Business |
| 論文出版年: | 2020 |
| 畢業學年度: | 108 |
| 語文別: | 英文 |
| 論文頁數: | 246 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 經濟政策不確定性 、阿根廷 、衝動反應 、溢出 、總投資 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | Economic policy uncertainty, Argentina, Impulse response, Spillovers, aggregate invest-ment |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:85 下載:1 |
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此篇論文中的阿根廷經濟政策不確定指數是根據Baker et al.(2016)的方法,資料期間為2009年1月至2019年12月。實證結果中,阿根廷EPU指數與智利、哥倫比亞、墨西哥和美國等美洲國家的EPU指數呈正相關。此指數能夠有效捕捉國際和國內的重大事件所引起的不確定性,例如中美貿易戰、阿根廷立法機關衝突、阿根廷的選舉、腐敗醜聞或是前總統克里斯蒂娜·費爾南德斯·德·基希內爾的司法案件。即使財政、貿易、匯率、貨幣和政治不確定性指數遵循相似的趨勢,但之間有細微的差異。此外,阿根廷的系列EPU指數和CBOE的VIX以及BCBA(布宜諾斯艾利斯的瓦薩加權股價)的收益波動率呈現正相關。實證結果顯示,主要經濟體出口大量的不確定性至阿根廷。此外,根據VAR模型的實證結果,從EPU指數對貸款、存款、消費者信心指數、出口、進口、工業生產指數、豆油產量、柴油產量、非居民酒店需求、BCBA的市值以及交易市值的反應,暗示著阿根廷總體經濟的惡化。
It is developed an Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) indices for Argentina from January 2009 to December 2019, this were built using the approach of (Baker et al., 2016a). Fur-thermore, the EPU index co-varies positively with other EPU of other countries located in the same geographical position such as Chile, Colombia, Mexico and United States. Also rises during high international and local major events like USA-China trade war, clashes in the Argentinian deputy assembly, Argentinian elections and corruption scandals and judicial case of ex-president Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner. The uncertainty indices of domestic, fiscal, trade, exchange rate, monetary and political uncertainty even though they follow a similar trend and behavior they also display some small but interesting differ-ences. Moreover, the EPU series has a confident relationship through other volatility in-dexes like Cboe VIX and the Volatility of Stock Returns of BCBA (Bolsa de Valores de Buenos Aires). Additionally, it was estimated uncertainty spillovers from abroad and was found a big amount of uncertainty preceding from major world and regional economies into Argentina. Finally, VAR models imply that EPU innovation foreshadows deteriora-tion in Argentina’s macroeconomic performance, as reflected by impulse responses for Loans, Deposits, Consumer Confidence Index, Exports, Imports, Industrial Production Index, Soybean Oil Production, Biodiesel Production, Non - residents Hotel Demand, Market Capitalization BCBA and Trading Value BCBA.
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