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研究生: 廖晨喻
Liao, Chen-Yu
論文名稱: 引入外送平臺對臺灣機車事故數量的影響
The impact of the introduction of food delivery platforms on the number of motorcycle accidents in Taiwan
指導教授: 林珮珺
Lin, Pei-Chun
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 交通管理科學系碩士在職專班
Department of Transportation and Communication Management Science(on-the-job training program)
論文出版年: 2024
畢業學年度: 112
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 71
中文關鍵詞: 機車事故外送平臺差異中的差異法結構性變動分析
外文關鍵詞: Motorcycle accidents, Food delivery service, Difference-In-Difference, Structural break test
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  • 外送平臺自2012年引入臺灣並快速普及,尤其在COVID-19疫情期間,外送需求急劇增加,至今提供外送服務已成為餐飲業的新常態。這個環境下臺灣的外送員人數在近三年間已經增加了十萬人次,使得道路上的外送機車數量遽增。外送機車駕駛人的高風險違規行為與道路安全問題成為廣泛關注的議題,其風險駕駛模式也已經在許多國內外研究中被討論,外送機車的違規行為可能增加交通事故的風險。而臺灣各縣市中臺南市的機車事故數在近年呈現明顯上升趨勢,且死傷人數也居高不下,外送平臺的引入也可能是臺南市機車事故上升的一個潛在原因。故本研究以臺南市作為研究地區提出了一個框架探討外送平臺的引入對機車事故的影響,將引入外送平臺的行政區設定為處理組; 與未引入外送平臺的行政區設定為控制組。先以結構性變動 (Structural Breaks Test) 分析處理組機車事故之時間序列資料的突升時間點出現在2018年1月,了解外送平臺引入後對機車事故的影響時間延滯效應情況。再透過差異中的差異法 (Difference-In-Difference) 比較2018年1月前後處理組及控制組,引入外送平臺的影響效果對機車事故總數增加是否顯著,研究結果顯示2018年前後六年處理組相較控制組機車事故多上升了51%,表示外送平臺的引入對機車事故總數有增加效果,建議臺南市交通局與警察局當局對交通事故紀錄加入明確註記是否涉入外送活動,以利對於外送活動的交通安全有更全面的監管。並建議未來機車事故因子相關的研究將「外送服務與否」作為對交通事故的影響因子,減少未知的解釋變數,以提升研究對真實現況的解釋力。

    Since the introduction of delivery platforms in Taiwan in 2012, their popularity has rapidly increased, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic when the demand for delivery services surged. This has led to a significant rise in the number of delivery motorcycles on the roads, with the number of delivery personnel increasing by 100,000 over the past three years. The high-risk behaviors of delivery motorcycle drivers have raised widespread safety concerns, with studies both domestically and internationally highlighting the potential increase in traffic accidents due to these behaviors. In Tainan City, the number of motorcycle accidents and the associated fatalities and injuries have been on the rise, potentially linked to the introduction of delivery platforms. This study examines the impact of delivery platforms on motorcycle accidents in Tainan by comparing districts with and without delivery platform services.

    Our research reveals that the introduction of delivery platforms corresponds with a significant increase in motorcycle accidents. The methodology involves the Structural Breaks Test to identify critical shifts in accident trends and the Difference-In-Difference method to analyze the impact over time. The results indicate a marked increase in accidents in areas serviced by delivery platforms, suggesting a direct correlation. This study highlights the need for enhanced regulatory measures and suggests further research to fully understand the implications of delivery platforms on traffic safety.

    摘要i Extended Abstract ii 目錄v 表目錄vi 圖目錄vii 第一章 緒論1 第一節 研究背景與動機1 第二節 研究目的7 第三節 研究流程8 第二章 文獻回顧9 第一節 交通事故之風險因子9 第二節 外送機車事故之風險駕駛因子12 第三節 時間序列分析應用於交通事故分析14 第四節 差異中的差異法應用於事故分析19 第三章 研究方法25 第一節 研究設計25 第二節 結構性變動分析27 第三節 差異中的差異法31 第四章 研究結果38 第一節 敘述性統計38 第二節 時間序列分析39 第三節 結構性變動分析41 第四節 差異中的差異法42 第五章 結論與建議50 第一節 結論50 第二節 研究貢獻51 第三節 研究限制53 第四節 後續研究建議54 參考資料55

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