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研究生: 黃鉦凱
Huang, Cheng-Kai
論文名稱: 燃料煤價格之影響因素分析
Analysis of Affecting Factors on Steam Coal Price
指導教授: 吳榮華
Wu, Jung-Hua
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 工學院 - 資源工程學系
Department of Resources Engineering
論文出版年: 2015
畢業學年度: 103
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 96
中文關鍵詞: 燃料煤價格影響因素紮根理論
外文關鍵詞: Steam coal price, Affecting factors, Grounded theory.
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  • 台灣自產能源缺乏需仰賴進口,是屬於能源價格接受者,易受國際能源價格波動影響。在燃料煤方面,台灣進口燃料煤成本費用十分龐大,而且燃料煤為國內發電燃料之重要能源,在發電結構中屬於基載,因此如何降低燃料煤採購成本並維持穩定供電,係一重要且值得研究之議題。
    本研究主要目的是分析影響燃料煤價格之因素。過去探討燃料煤價格相關文獻中,以數量分析或聚焦於單一層面的文獻居多,而本研究嘗試利用質性的方法論 — 紮根理論研究法,進行三階段編碼,蒐集約40篇相關文獻和書籍,分析歸納其中的影響因素,並分成基本面和市場實務面進行探討。
    最後,將分析歸納出的影響因素進行彙整,建構出亞太市場燃料煤價格之影響因素機制圖,以及運用此機制圖之步驟,從中分析影響燃料煤價格變動之重要關鍵因素,可供燃料煤採購時之參考。
    研究結果顯示,運用紮根理論建構出亞太市場燃料煤價格之影響因素機制圖,其篩選後之重要關鍵因素為:(1)常規:季節性因素及日澳長約因素;(2)短期:供需大國市場影響力、替代能源價格…等,(3)長期:供需國政策性因素、國際整體經濟情勢…等。

    Because of the shortness of indigenous energy resources and the reliance on imported energy, Taiwan is not only an energy price taker but also easily influenced by international energy price fluctuation. Besides, the cost of steam coal is very expensive. Steam coal is an important part of Taiwanese power generation and be used as base load plant. Therefore, it is essential to study how to reduce procurement cost of stem coal and maintain supply of power steadily.
    The main purpose of this study is to analyze the factors which affect stem coal price. In the past, most researches on this issue would use quantitative analysis or focus on single aspect. However, in this study we attempt to use qualitative analysis - Grounded Theory to execute three phase coding. This study searches about 40 references and books. Then, constructing the figure of setting mechanism for steam coal price by relevant literature and analyzing the key factor which affects steam coal price.
    According to the results of this study by using Grounded Theory, we find the key factors are (1)General factors:season factor and the signing time of long-term contracts in Japan and Australia.(2)Short-term factors:market influence of high supply and demand country, the price of substitute energy…and so on (3)Long-term factors:the policy of supply and demand country, economic trend in all countries…and so on.

    目錄 中文摘要 I 英文延伸摘要 II 致謝 VI 目錄 VIII 表目錄 X 圖目錄 XI 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究背景與動機 1 第二節 研究目的 3 第三節 研究內容與架構 4 第四節 研究範圍與限制 7 第二章 文獻蒐集與探討 8 第一節 燃料煤市場相關文獻 8 第二節 燃料煤價格影響因素相關文獻 11 第三節 紮根理論研究法相關文獻 13 第三章 燃料煤市場分析 16 第一節 煤炭分類及性質特性 16 第二節 國際燃料煤市場之供需 21 第三節 亞太燃料煤市場之供需 33 第四節 台灣燃料煤市場之供需 40 第五節 本章結語 43 第四章 研究方法及研究設計 45 第一節 紮根理論研究法介紹 45 第二節 紮根理論研究法的分析與流程設計 47 第三節 本章結語 56 第五章 燃料煤價格影響因素分析與結果 57 第一節 燃料煤基本面因素分析 59 第二節 燃料煤市場實務面因素分析 66 第三節 建構燃料煤價格之影響因素機制及運用 77 第四節 本章結語 82 第六章 結論與建議 83 第一節 結論 83 第二節 建議 84 參考文獻 86 附錄(A) 三階段編碼彙整表 92

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