摘要
自豐田發明即時化生產系統後，許多企業由於具有經濟批量優勢而開始降低供應商數量，此外，企業由於重視核心競爭力，開始以專精化為目標，縮減服務範圍，也因此使得原本的供應鏈分工更為精細，精實生產雖能使供應鏈更具效率性卻也使得整個供應鏈變得相對脆弱，ㄧ旦供應鏈中任ㄧ結點間發生問題導致產能發生異變，即有可能危害整條供應鏈，造成供應鏈中斷的嚴重後果。有鑒於此，中斷風險(Disruption risk)的相關研究已是近年供應鏈管理的重要議題。

本研究延伸Wilson(2007)學者之研究，包括傳統功應鏈和供應商管理存貨 (Vendor managed inventory, VMI)供應鏈這兩種，並加入三種不同紓解政策(Mitigation strategy)：多供應商(multiple supplier)、重新鏈結(Rerouting)和被動接受(Acceptance)讓遭遇生產工中斷供應商選擇。本研究主要提出兩個探討議題：1.哪個位階發生生產中斷對供應鏈影響最大；2.採用不同供應鏈型態或不同紓解政策是否可以用來降低各類型生產中斷情境(不同中斷位階和中斷程度)對供應鏈之影響。

本研究提出下列三點結論：1. 後端供應商遭遇生產中斷，將對供應鏈上下游造成最大的影響；2.若生產中斷會導致顧客端缺貨數大量增加，則VMI供應鏈可維持上游原物料供應商和前端供應商之平均存貨於較低的狀態；3.由於後端供應鏈遭遇生產中斷將對供應鏈上下游影響最嚴重，故建議採用多供應商紓解政策來降低其發生生產中斷之危害。

關鍵字：供應鏈管理、生產中斷、紓解政策、系統動態學

Abstract
Since the advent of the Just-In-Time system created by Toyota, some enterprises gain economic scale advantage by reducing number of suppliers. Moreover, enterprises also focus on their core skill and decrease their service regions for enhancing core competency. The division of labor between supply chain members also becomes more delicate. Althrough Lean production makes supply chain operation more efficiency, it also makes supply chain became unreliable. Once any supplier or transit way in the supply chain is broken, it will cause great damage to the entire supply chain and lead to disrupted. “Disruption Risk” has becomes a major issue to supply chain research nowadays.

This research extends the Wilson’s (2007) study to include two different types of supply chain: traditional supply chain and vendor manage inventory supply chain, three mitigation strategies also considered in the study, acceptance, multiple suppliers and rerouting for supplier when production disruption occurs. In this research, two issues are addressed: 1. which echelon under production disruption will make the most damage to the entire supply chain? 2. which mitigation strategy or supply chain type should be used for reducing the damage of the entire supply chain under various production disruption scenarios?

Three conclusions are suggested in this study: 1. production disruption occur within tier1 supplier, it will result in the greatest damage to the entire supply chain; 2. if the production disruption made many customers’ order unfulfilled, the VMI supply chain can maintain a lower average inventory for raw material supplier and tier2 supplier; 3. tier1 supplier under production disruption will make the greatest damage to the entire supply chain, so it is suggested using multiple supplier strategy to decrease the damage cause from tier1 supplier disruption.

Keyword: Supply chain management, Production disruption, Mitigation strategy, System dynamic.

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