由於國內產業發展政策與資源分配不均，導致許多都會區以外中小型城市受磁吸作用，整體都市呈現人口衰退與萎縮現象，而地方政府為解決市中心人口大量外移問題，通常會動用都市計畫手段透過市中心大規模公共資源投入，來吸引新的人潮回流中心商業區。而近年我國鐵路立體化政策即屬一例，透過沿線鐵路立體化以及車站更新，來縫合市中心都市發展，並藉此來促進車站周邊都市土地產生量便與質變的結果。然而該項政策除大都會區之外，同樣包括像員林、屏東等中小型城市，該類型城市現況皆面臨著人口衰退與都市萎縮現象，故許多學者對此公共建設將帶來多少土地變遷效益帶有一定疑慮。
此外過去研究通常著重於土地呈現的結果，反而忽略個人偏好選擇以及社會不同群體間對話所產生的行為模式，且人類本身對於周遭環境認知牽涉到多重面向影響，在單一因子對於決策者本身影響即具有階層性差異，甚至對於不同決策者具不同比較上區別，落在單一土地上也因空間條件不同在區位的選擇上也具異質性，故在現實中對於因子的階層性高低，對應到不同決策者的影響程度差異，其實很難整合至同一模式中或沒辦法完整呈現，以至於對於模式解釋程度上產生一定的差距。
故本研究將探討中小型城市市中心受到立體化建設後，車站周邊土地使用強度變化情形，並嘗試建立立體化車站周邊的土地使用變遷模擬架構，並依該架構模式預測未來車站周邊土地變化趨勢，同時去釐清都市土地的變遷驅動力以及不同決策者間的互動關係以及階層性差異。
本研究選取彰化員林車站周邊500公尺範圍，以95年與107年國土利用調查作為鐵路立體化前後土地使用狀態，運用多項Logit模式與行為者基礎模型建構土地強度轉換模式，以及各因子之顯著性檢定操作成果，作為影響土地使用因素程度之參考；行為者設定上則選擇政府、開發商與居民三者作為都市土地變遷關鍵決策者，依照相鄰土地使用型態與因子變數計算網格效用與門檻值，進而模擬不同決策者評估土地效用值後選擇高低種強度使用；最終模擬結果透過整體正確率與實際土地使用比較進行檢定與校估，以利後續策略情境模擬。
研究結果顯示，立體化本身對於中小型城市車站周邊土地使用強度變化，具有一定強度增加的趨勢，然而該趨勢呈現集中在特定強度土地發展且具有明顯前後站差異，更甚至有都市穿孔問題；同時本研究所建構之土地使用變遷模擬架構，能夠有效表達都市土地變遷過程中，各種群體間與土地對話結果，整體而言模行解釋力良好；並且在本模式中，各驅動因子劃分為不同階層等級，以及對應到前後站拆分進行模擬，對於模式的整體正確率有所提高，代表因子階層權重對於決策者以及土地本身是具有一定的影響力。本研究可作為後續研究者本身、地方政府規劃者與都市決策者三方在模型上的整合，以及中小型城市立體化政策評估與制定上之參考。

This study explores the change of intensity of land use around the station after the railway grade separation construction of the center of the small and medium-sized city, and tries to construct a simulation framework, and predicts the future trend of land use around the station, while clarifying the driving forces of change and different decision makers. The interaction between the two and the hierarchical differences.
The study selected the Yuanlin Station, Changhua, Taiwan from 2006 to 2018, the land intensity change before and after the railway grade separation, combined with ABM and MNL to construct land conversion model. The results show that the railway grade separation has a certain increase for the change of land use intensity around stations in small and medium-sized cities, and this trend presents two transformation phenomena with obvious differences in the development of the front and rear stations; at the same time, the land use changes constructed by this research institute. The simulation framework can effectively express the results of dialogue between various groups of people and the land in the process of urban land changes; and in this model, the driving factors are divided into different levels, and the simulations are gradually carried out corresponding to the front and rear stations, which is correct for the overall model The rate has increased, and the weight of the representative factor class has a certain influence on decision-makers and the land itself. The follow-up can be used as a reference for the researcher, local government planners and urban decision makers on the model integration, as well as for the evaluation and compilation of the railway grade separation policy of small and medium-sized cities.

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