隨著科技快速發展與新技術不斷地創新，且研發工作的營運模式大多是以專案型態進行，而在科技與新產品的快速發展過程中，常因複雜的科技研發過程難以控制，因此公司如何慎選開發專案與辨識風險將會影響著公司營運發展，並使用科學化的方法，盡可能事前預防或降低風險所帶來的衝擊，增加專案完成的機會，以達成專案的目標，使得專案風險管理是專案人員值得思索的課題。
模糊決策樹（Fuzzy Decision Tree）是結合模糊理論與決策樹演算法的新演算法，且近年來也逐漸被討論，並且被廣泛地使用於資料探勘的分類方法論。它的發展是建立在利用模糊集合減少分類不明確，並能自然地表示人們的想法，更穩健地處理認知與觀念上模糊分類的問題。
因此本研究嘗試以降低專案執行風險為目標，根據模糊決策樹的架構，定義出分類項目與衡量指標，採用歸納演算法生成可讀的規則。在研究過程中，探討影響專案風險的構面及風險因子，並透過問卷調查某一研發專案組織對該組織專案風險因子的影響程度，以探討分類專案風險等級及量化其風險值之管理意涵。
本論文提出之風險評估模式，已提供公司在依序執行的研發專案進行風險辨識，使得專案人員可以更清楚掌握關鍵風險因子，且加強對專案風險的概念及對專案目標的影響。執行此風險評估模式後已獲成效，公司在獲利上已有顯著提升，且明顯改善先前經常造成專案失敗的情況。

It is difficult to control the process of scientific and new products development. This is because the development of science and new technology, and operation modes of development are often going with the project. Hence, how the company selects to develop a project and distinguishes risks will influence the company a lot. So, using the scientific method, preventing or reducing the impact that a risk brings as soon as possible and offering more opportunities that a project is successful, are the projects that should be focused on.
Fuzzy decision tree is a new algorithm, which combines the fuzzy theory and the decision tree algorithm. It has been gradually discussed in recent years, and has been widely used the in categorized methodology prospected of material. Fuzzy decision tree is set upon utilizing and gathering fuzzily for reducing and classifying indeterminately. Also, it can express people's idea naturally, which helps to deal with cognition and fuzzy problem more surely.
This research will discuss about reducing risks of the project. Besides, categorized projects and indicators will be defined through the fuzzy decision tree theory and the rule of algorithms. In the process of studying, I’ve discussed the risk factors of the projects, surveyed an organization about how risk factors influence the project, in order to discuss the level of categorized the project risk and the meaning of quantization management risk.
The thesis of risk evaluates which is discussed in this research, has offered the company to distinguish risks when assessing the projects. Also, it enables risk factors easy to be identified, strengthen the concept of the project risk and help to success a project. A company has already obtained more profit, and prevented the failures which it used to face very often before, through assessing the thesis of risk evaluates.

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