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研究生: 陳宗成
Chen, Tsung-Cheng
論文名稱: 規模效應之探討-考量存活偏誤與破產風險
The Study on Size Effect after Taking into Account Survivorship Bias and Risk of Bankruptcy
指導教授: 簡金成
Chien, Chin-Chen
學位類別: 博士
Doctor
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 會計學系
Department of Accountancy
論文出版年: 2007
畢業學年度: 95
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 63
中文關鍵詞: 存活偏誤破產風險Heckman兩階段方法
外文關鍵詞: Heckman Two-Step Method, Risk of Bankruptcy, Survivorship Bias
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  • Reinganum在1982年之實證研究顯示系統風險(貝他值)的衡量誤差似乎無法完全地解釋規模效應的存在性。然而,以往文獻甚少從事後的存活偏誤與事前的破產風險溢酬角度去進一步探討規模效應
    。因此,本研究旨在從樣本存活偏誤與投資人對破產風險之考量去分析規模效應之存在性。
    從事後的樣本存活偏誤角度,研究結果顯示存活偏誤是顯著且重大的。在修正了樣本存活偏誤與控制Dimson 的系統風險衡量後
    ,小公司高報酬的現象傾向不是一個顯著的異常校應。基於穩健性
    ,全部樣本的實證結果亦得到相似的結果。從事前的破產風險角度
    ,實證證據顯示在考慮了預期的破產風險溢酬後,發現了大公司具有較高的超額報酬現象。此外,此一反向規模效應之證據在非元月份時更為明顯。
    本研究之研究貢獻為對投資人分配資金的投資具有實務意涵,並補足文獻上甚少同時從事後存活偏誤與事前破產風險角度探討規模效應之不足。

    Empirical research proposed by Reinganum (1982) has indicated that the bias in beta estimations appears to not completely explain the size effect, and the small firm anomaly is still a significant phenomenon. However, the ex-post survivorship bias and ex-ante risk premium of bankruptcy were seldom discussed in prior studies. In this paper, we focus on analyzing size effect under the considerations of the ex-post survivorship bias and ex-ante bankruptcy risk.
    From ex-post view, this paper shows that the survivorship bias is significant and important. Thus, the small firm effect tends to be not a significant anomaly after correcting for the survivorship bias of the sample and controlling for the Dimson beta. For robustness, the results from the overall sample including the delisting firms and the returns at the delisting months are similar.
    From the ex-ante view, the empirical evidence presents a significant large firm anomaly when taking account into the neglected risk premiums of bankruptcy in the previous literature. The results are consistent regardless of what different estimations of beta, what different sub-periods, or what the sample for surviving firms or overall firms. Furthermore, the large firm effect is more apparent in months other than January.
    There will be two contributions in this paper. First, the findings will have implications for investors such as mutual fund investors and pension sponsors to allocate their funds. Second, this paper makes up for the literature for size effect for survivorship bias and risk premiums of bankruptcy.

    Chapter 1 Introduction 1 Chapter 2 Literature Review and Two Alternative Explanations 5 A. Literature Review 5 A.1. Evidence for Small Firm Anomaly 5 A.2. Evidence for the Relationship between Size Effect and Seasonality Anomaly 9 B. Alternative Explanations for Size effect 10 B.1. Survivorship Bias 10 B.2. Risk of Bankruptcy 12 Chapter 3 Research Design 13 A. The Sample Selection and Data Source 13 B. The Research Methodology and Measurement of Variables 15 B.1. Regression Analysis and Estimation of Beta 15 B.2. Testing Survivorship Bias: Heckman Two-Step Method 16 B.3. Measurement for Probability of Bankruptcy and Estimation of Excess Returns Adjusting for Risk Premiums of 18 B.4. Regression Analysis after Controlling for January Effect 21 Chapter 4 Empirical Results and Analyses 21 A. The Characteristic of Sample and the Differences between Different Size Portfolios 21 B. Regression Analysis Compared to Reinganum 24 C. The Adjustment for Risk Premiums of Bankruptcy 25 D. The Impact of Seasonality on Size Effect 26 Chapter 5 Conclusions and Implications 27 References 57

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