根據過往文獻研究，經濟政策不確定性(EPU)對企業績效有負面影響，間接影響了企業的財務風險，原因包含了企業獲利減少、降低企業外部融資機會、管理層對現金管理的把控壓力以及企業對外做出投資策略的變化，內外資訊不對稱性的加劇，而中國的市場環境則更有國家政體與政策體制的複雜性。
本研究以2007到2023年中國深滬A股上市企業為研究樣本，並以預期違約替代模型(EDF)作為衡量信用風險的工具，使用Davis et al. (2019)所制定的經濟政策不確定性指數作為經濟政策不確定性之衡量變數。研究結果顯示：經濟政策不確定性對企業信用風險有顯著正面影響。穩健性測試也獲取的一樣的結果；在額外測試中，以企業的獲利能力(ROA)作為中介變數，發現其有助於緩衝經濟政策不確定性對企業信用風險的負面衝擊，增添企業因應經濟變動的管道與可能性。

Following the CSRC’s regulatory reforms in China’s capital and bond markets, the expansion of corporate bond issuance and financing channels has provided firms with more diversified financing options. However, easier access to external funding may also increase firms’ reliance on debt financing and refinancing activities. However, when economic and policy conditions become more uncertain, financial institutions and investors tend to adopt a lower risk appetite, which may increase financing costs, tighten refinancing conditions, and further exacerbate firms’ default risk when liquidity conditions deteriorate.
Building on prior research, this study links economic policy uncertainty (EPU) to firms’ external financing conditions, business operations, and corporate governance, and examines how China’s institutional and macroeconomic environment shapes this relationship. Using a sample of Chinese A-share listed firms on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges from 2007 to 2023, this study employs expected default frequency (EDF) as the proxy for corporate default risk. The sample period captures several critical economic and financial events, including the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis, the 2015 Chinese stock market turbulence, the comprehensive implementation of the CSRC bond reforms, and the macroeconomic shifts of the early 2020s. The empirical results show that higher EPU significantly elevates the probability of corporate default, revealing the financial vulnerability of Chinese enterprises under heightened macroeconomic uncertainty. These findings highlight the importance of macro-level economic uncertainty in shaping firms’ financing conditions and credit risk.

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