| 研究生: |
歐惠晴 Ou, Hui-Ching |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
緊急疏散下避難收容所區位選擇之雙層模式建立與分析 A Bi-level Model for Optimal Shelter Selection in Emergency Evacuation |
| 指導教授: |
胡大瀛
Hu, Ta-Yin |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
管理學院 - 交通管理科學系 Department of Transportation and Communication Management Science |
| 論文出版年: | 2012 |
| 畢業學年度: | 100 |
| 語文別: | 英文 |
| 論文頁數: | 102 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 雙層規劃模型 、區位問題 、緊急疏散 、避難收容所 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | Bi-level Programming Model, Location Problem, Emergency Evacuation, Shelter |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:157 下載:4 |
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因近數十年來天災人禍之發生,緊急事件管理遂成為重要的全球議題。由於威脅生命安全的災害將不預期地發生,因此,一個有效率的緊急疏散計劃,對於減輕即將到來之災害影響程度是至關重要的。然而,現行設計之運輸基礎設施可能無法提供足夠之道路容量來因應緊急疏散過程中所產生的疏散需求。為解決緊急疏散時可能面臨的交通擁擠現象,運輸部門應規劃設計適當的疏散計畫來提昇疏散效率。
由於疏散路徑與預定避難收容所位置息息相關,為制定完備的疏散計畫,避難收容所區位規劃應是政府必須優先處理的重要問題。除此之外,疏散者之疏散旅次分佈問題也應於評估候選避難收容所位置時納入考量。因此,本研究將利用雙層規劃模型分別探討避難收容所區位問題以及疏散旅次分佈問題。
本研究所提出之雙層模型適用於:在給定的疏散者需求量之下,求解得最佳避難收容所位置以及預定開放之避難收容所數量。本研究之實證分析為利用三組情境設計來探討高雄市三民區路網的緊急疏散問題。從數值實驗結果可得,本研究所提出之雙層模型可應用於相關單位在災前規劃階段時期,制定規劃周全的疏散計劃。
Emergency management has become an important issue around the world, since the happening of catastrophic natural and man-made disasters in recent decades. Life-threatening disasters may occur unexpectedly. Therefore, effective emergency evacuation plans are critical to alleviate the impact from approaching disasters. However, it is possible that the existing transportation infrastructure could not provide sufficient roadway capacity to meet the evacuation demand during the evacuation process. To deal with the possible traffic congestion in emergency evacuation, the transportation sector should design appropriate evacuation plans with the goal to enhance the efficiency of evacuation.
To make well-organized evacuation plans in Taiwan, the first priority of the government is to do the shelter planning since the evacuation routes are related to the destined shelters. Besides, the evacuation trip distribution problem for evacuees should be considered when evaluate the locations of potential shelters. Therefore, a bi-level programming model is proposed to combine with the shelter location problem and the evacuation trip distribution problem in this research.
This bi-level model for shelter locations is appropriate to search for the optimal shelter locations and the optimal number of shelters along with their locations in a given demand level to evacuate the evacuees. Three scenarios in the San-min district of the Kaohsiung City in Taiwan are studied in this research. From the result of numerical experiments, this bi-level model is applicable for pre-planning phase for the authority to make well-rounded evacuation plans.
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