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研究生: 黎靜怡
Li, Ching-Yi
論文名稱: 具交互作用效應項之加速壽命模型試驗規劃
Planning Accelerated Life Tests With Interaction Effects
指導教授: 李宜真
Lee, I-Chen
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 統計學系
Department of Statistics
論文出版年: 2021
畢業學年度: 109
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 62
中文關鍵詞: 加速壽命試驗 、最佳設計 、粒子群最佳化 、依序設計
外文關鍵詞: Accelerated life test (ALT), Optimal design, Particle swarm optimization (PSO), Sequential design
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  • 由於現今多數產品的壽命時間較長,使得在開發短期內評估產品可靠度及訂定保固期等任務變得較為艱難,為了解決此問題,加速壽命試驗 (accelerated life tests, ALT) 被廣泛應用於產品可靠度研究中。由於實驗成本和時間因素的考量,如何設計一既有效率又能準確地推估產品在正常使用條件下壽命的試驗計畫是一重要課題。過去已有許多文獻針對一因子及二因子加速壽命模型提出找尋最佳試驗計畫之方法。本研究將延伸討論當兩個因子具有交互作用項時,如何找尋最佳試驗計畫。首先透過粒子群演算法 (particle swarm optimization, PSO) 來尋找最佳試驗計畫,並輔以一般等價定理 (general equivalence theorem, GET) 驗證其為全域最佳解。本研究亦將文獻上提出之試驗配置策略與最佳試驗計畫比較,其中二因子不具交互作用項之加速模型找尋最佳試驗計畫的方法,結果顯示由降維計畫推廣至非降維計畫此方法於具有交互作用項之模型下不可行。而透過演算法找尋之最佳試驗計畫和傳統的2^2、3^2因子設計進行比較,結果顯示使用PSO找到的試驗計畫更有效率。最後應用依序設計,即逐點依序決定測試樣本之實驗應力水準,結果顯示和使用PSO找到的最佳試驗計畫有相似結論。

    Due to the long lifespan of most products nowadays, it is more difficult to evaluate product reliability and set warranty period in a short period of development. In order to solve this problem, accelerated life tests (ALT) are widely used on product reliability research. Due to the consideration of experimental cost and time factors, how to design a test plan that is both efficient and can accurately estimate the lifetime of the product under normal use conditions is an important topic. In the past, many literatures have proposed methods to find the optimum test plan for one-factor and two-factor accelerated life models. This study will extend the discussion on how to find the optimum test plan when the model considers the interaction term of two factors. To determine the optimum plan, the particle swarm optimization (PSO) is used to find the optimum test plan, and the general equivalence theorem (GET) is supplemented to verify that it is the global best solution. This study also compares the method proposed in the literature with the optimum test plan. The results show that the extension of the degenerate plan to the nondegenerate plan is not feasible under the model with interaction terms. The optimum test plan is also compared with the traditional 2^2 & 3^2 factorial design, and the results show that the test plan found using PSO is more efficient. Finally, a sequential design is applied, that is, the experimental stress level of the test unit is determined point by point, and the result shows that there is a similar conclusion to the optimum test plan found using PSO.

    摘要 i 英文延伸摘要 ii 誌謝 xiv 目錄 xv 表目錄 xvii 圖目錄 xviii 第一章 緒論 1 1.1. 研究背景與動機 1 1.2. 文獻回顧 1 1.2.1. 最佳實驗規劃 2 1.2.2. 一般等價定理 2 1.2.3. 粒子群最佳化演算法 2 1.3. 概述 3 第二章 加速壽命試驗 4 2.1. 二加速因子之加速壽命模型 4 2.2. 概似函數與漸近變異數 5 第三章 研究方法 9 3.1. 最佳試驗計畫之準則 9 3.2. 一般等價定理(general equivalence theorem, GET) 10 3.3. 粒子群最佳化(particle swarm optimization, PSO) 11 3.4. 二因子加速壽命試驗最適配置之演算法 12 第四章 最佳試驗計畫 14 4.1. 資料介紹 14 4.1.1. 絕緣材料實驗之模型設定(Nelson, 1990) 14 4.1.2. LED 燈之模型設定(Pascual 等人, 2006) 15 4.2. 應用粒子群最佳化求解 16 4.3. 與傳統實驗設計之比較 20 4.4. 應用降維計畫 21 4.5. 應用依序設計求解 23 第五章 敏感度分析 26 第六章 結論與未來研究方向 33 參考文獻 35 附錄A 建構費雪訊息矩陣 37 附錄B Nelson(1990)絕緣材料實驗 42 B.1. 敏感度分析中最佳試驗計畫的GET 圖形 42 B.2. 應用降維計畫於不同的交互作用效應項 48 B.3. 應用依序設計求解 48 附錄C Pascual等人(2006)LED燈 51

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