本研究探討波羅地海指數變化的影響因素，根據過去文獻研究，使用全球實質GDP成長率、全球鋼鐵指數、全球農金指數、以及布蘭特原油期貨，探討其因果關係。資料時間取自2009年Q1到2018年Q1，研究透過自我迴歸分配落後模型（autoregressive distributed lag－ARDL) 邊際共整合，及誤差修正模型（error correction model, ECM，分析BDI指數與各變數間長期均衡與短期動態調整，最後再以Granger因果關係檢定，探討變數間因果關係。本研究結論為確立波羅地海海運指數BDI、全球實質經濟成長率GDP、全球鋼鐵指數CRU、全球農金指數DAX以及布蘭特原油期貨間有長期均衡關係。落後一期至四期的全球實質GDP成長率對波羅地海海運指數BDI有顯著正向關係，證實當全球實質經濟成長率為散裝海運運價指數的影響因子。

The aim of the research presented in this paper is to analyse influencing factors of the Baltic Dry Index. Based on past literature research, the global real GDP growth rate, global steel index, global agribusiness index, and Brent crude are used to explore the causal relationship. The data was taken from Q1 in 2009 to Q1 in 2018. The research used the marginal co-integration through autoregressive distributed lag-ARDL and the error correction model (ECM), which analyzed the relationship of long-term and short-term between the BDI index and each variable. Finally Granger causality is used to explore the causal relationship between variables. The conclusion of this research is to establish there are a long-term relationship between the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and global real economic growth rate (GDP), global steel index (CRU), global agricultural gold index (DAX), Brent crude. The global real GDP growth rate from the first to the fourth period has a significant positive relationship with the Baltic Dry Index, confirming that the global real economic growth rate is the Baltic Dry Index impact factor.

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