過度自信經理人常因高估自身能力、未來收益的期望，或低估決策風險所延伸出的傷害，而導致投資決策的偏誤，造成公司價值減損。本研究以公司理財角度為出發點，企圖切入動態競爭文獻中較少提及部分–廠商競爭對公司市場價值的影響，從理論建構，假設推導，以了解資本市場對於過度自信經理人所作公司決策的看法。本研究認為，經理人的過度自信行為，因為廠商能見度與搶市場先機的影響下，在競爭環境中會更加明顯。而競爭環境下的強烈不確定性則可能扮演著公司經理人做決策時，展現過度自信行為的重要驅動因素。另外，資本市場可能會因為公司的內部資源、成長機會、對競爭對手的回應速度、產業競爭性，甚至經理人股權結構的影響而有不同反應。根據事件分析法，本論文以有效的165筆對偶樣本，進行一系列實證研究，並針對結果提出討論及應用。本研究對動態競爭文獻的貢獻在於以資本市場反應來探討競爭行為是否能為公司帶來價值；也說明了公司理財中的行為決策文獻，加入競爭因素後，對經理人行為的影響。

The managerial overconfidence hypothesis states that firms distort investment decisions on account of overestimation in their ability and future returns. This article highlights how the relationship between managerial overconfidence motive underlying a competitive response and firm value is influenced by firm-, industry-, and action-response attributes. An analysis of 165 pair-wise sample firms varied across 12 industries is employed to investigate whether the overconfidence motive drives executives to make a competitive response, and how the contingent effects govern the relationship between managerial overconfidence and firm performance. Our results show that firms suffer negative firm value when managerial overconfidence is involved in a price war because investors speculate it as a risky action under uncertainty. However, the corporate constitutions and appropriate response timing decisions can tamper investors’ unfavorable reactions. The findings state that the impact of contingent factors such as financial distress, financial constraint, growth opportunity, industrial competitiveness, response delay and managerial ownership are statistically and economically sizable.

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