20世紀前半葉，學者專家們憂心人口爆炸將帶來世界大災難，甚至預測地球將進入「只剩下供人站立空間、野生環境被破壞、自然資源消耗殆盡」的恐怖時代。世事難料，才多久時間，人口生育率、人口結構產生巨大轉變，多數國家擔憂的不再是人滿為患的問題，而是少子化、高齡化所帶來的新衝擊。台灣面臨這種趨勢非常嚴重，為了探究這個問題的原因，我們觀察到在生育率下滑的同時，台灣的房地產價格卻呈現長期上升的趨勢，究竟台灣的生育決策是與房地產價格高低有關聯？亦或其它經濟因素?有鑑於此，本研究綜合社會及經濟的變數(房價所得比、自有住宅率、結婚率、女性勞動參與比率、失業率)以模型實證研究，運用共同整合分析檢視影響少子化的因素。因此，本論文採用房價所得比作為生育率的主要影響自變項，並以固定效果的迴歸模型來進行實證分析。實證結果顯示，我國的房地產價格上漲與生育率呈現出正相關的關係，其可能的解釋為與我國高度的自有住宅比例有關，房價的上揚帶動了財富效果讓人民更積極地去進行生育行為。

In the early twentieth century, scholars and experts were worry about that the population explosion will bring about the world’s catastrophe, and they even predicted that the earth will enter the terror era which has space for people standing only, whose wild environment is destroyed, and whose natural resources were exhausted. Everything is unpredictable . A huge change took place in population fertility and structure in a short time. Most countries are worry about the new impact that is caused by the aging society with fewer children rather than overcrowding. Taiwan is facing this trend seriously. In order to explore the reasons for this problem, we observed when the fertility declined. Taiwan’s real estate price were showing a long-term upward trend. Is Taiwan’s fertility decision associated with the real estate prices or other economic factors? In view of this, the social and economic variables (house price ratio, own house rate, marriage rate, female labor participation rate, unemployment rate) are studied modeled and empirical analysis to inspect the factors influencing the low-birth rate. Therefore, this paper uses the house price income as the main influence of the fertility variable, and the fixed effect of the regression model to carry out an empirical analysis. Our empirical results reveal that real estate price is positively associated with the birth rate in Taiwan. The result may due to the high percentage of owned houses in Taiwan. The rising price of the estate will increase wealth effect which prompt people to give birth more actively.

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