有鑑於過去探討供應鏈管理(Supply Chain Management，SCM)都著重在存貨成本的管理、製造與物流策略，大體說來就是報酬利潤方面的探討，但在整個供應鏈的體系上，通路關係是很重要的一環，只要其中一個環節發生問題都會產生嚴重的損失，故如何管理供應鏈上的不確定因素成為主要的問題。所以將投資組合風險值的觀念引入到供應鏈管理，使供應鏈和財務觀念作結合，提出供應鏈整體風險量化觀念與評估對策，因為目前半導體產業垂直分工現象明顯，市場變化快速，營運成本提高與產品生命週期縮短，故造成整個IC產業競爭情況激烈，只要任何一個供應鏈環節發生問題都會嚴重威脅全球半導體供貨。所以我們利用投資組合風險值的觀念搭配IC產業供應鏈，找出IC產業供應鏈上下游的結盟廠商，先看其鏈內各部分組成份子的產業定位以及營運概況，做報酬率分析，之後再做鏈間、群間以及產業間的風險值分析，看不同的型態結盟方式(晶圓代工鏈v.s.IDM鏈)其風險值是否有差，以及和整體產業鏈的比較，分析方法採用共變異數法和歷史模擬法以及蒙地卡羅模擬法，研究結果可證明出組成供應鏈後的廠商，其上中下游報酬率平均來說是相同的，而風險值方面的話，鏈間的風險值差異並不顯著，群間的風險值差異則很顯著，加進整個產業鏈之後風險值亦有差異。
關鍵字:供應鏈管理、晶圓代工鏈、IDM鏈、風險值、共變異數法、歷史模擬法、蒙地卡羅模擬法

In the past,we probed into supply chain management about inventory cost、manufacturing and logistic strategies. In a word,the discussion is almost in the light of payoff and profit. It is important to manage uncertainty factors on supply chain,because any link in trouble will lead to big loss. Therefore we will lead the concept about value at risk of portfolios into supply chain management. Because it is obvious about vertical division of labor in the semiconductor industry、the change of the market is rapid、the operation cost raises and the life cycle of product shortens,all IC industry competes violently and any link of supply chain in trouble theatens seriously the supply of the world. So we bring up an idea which estimates value at risk in amount. Then when we use the concepts about value at risk of portfolio into supply chain of IC industry and the companions of supply chain from up to down,we will observe what is the firm position and operation condition in every composition. After that,we can make the analysis of payoff and value at risk on chain between chain、group between group and among industries and see different styles of companions whose values at risk are the same or not and also compare with the whole industry. The analytic methods include variance-covariance method、historical data simulation method and monte carlo simulation method. The researches conclude when the firms compose the supply chain,the average of profits is the same approximately and the value at risk between chains is not distinct but between groups and among industries are so distinct.
Key words：supply chain managenent，Foundry，Integrated Device Manufacturer(IDM)，value at risk，variance-covariance，historical data simulation，monte carlo simulation

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