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研究生: 董李延楠
Dong, Li-Yan-Nan
論文名稱: 考量企業生命週期之選股策略-以台灣50指數所含成分股為例
The Theory Of The Corporate Life Cycle And Stock Selection Strategy-Empirical Evidences From Taiwan 50 Index Component stocks
指導教授: 王明隆
Wang, Ming-Long
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 財務金融研究所
Graduate Institute of Finance
論文出版年: 2016
畢業學年度: 104
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 88
中文關鍵詞: 三分位研究方法現金流組合法F-score企業生命週期選股
外文關鍵詞: Life cycle of enterprise, Three-dimensional analysis, Combination of cash flow, F-score selection of stock, Taiwan 50 Index
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  • 本研究主要探討台灣上市公司股票報酬率與其所在不同生命週期之間關聯。本研究希望能夠藉由不同方式篩選出的成長期與成熟期公司組成的投資組合,瞭解是否能夠打敗市場台灣50指數,產生超額報酬,幫助投資者盈利。本研究欲運用Anthony 和Ramesh(1992)三分位研究方法、以及Dickinson(2011)現金流組合法篩選出成長期及成熟期之投資組合,並加入Piotroski(2000)的F-score選股方式。
    由實證結果得出以下數點結論:1.從平均報酬率方面,四指標成長組投資組合6年中每一年都打敗台灣50指數;四指標成熟組投資組合6年中有5年打敗台灣50指數;現金流成長組投資組合6年中有3年打敗台灣50指數;現金流成熟組投資組合6年中每一年都打敗台灣50指數。F高分組投資組合6年中全部年打敗台灣50指數。
    2.從夏普績效指標方面,四指標成長組投資組合6年中有3年打敗台灣50指數;四指標成熟組投資組合6年中有5年打敗台灣50指數;現金流成長組投資組合6年中有2年打敗台灣50指數;現金流成熟組投資組合6年中有4年打敗台灣50指數;F高分組投資組合6年中4年打敗台灣50指數。

    The paper mainly discusses the relations between the return rates of stocks issued by listed companies in Taiwan and the different life cycles the stocks are in. Meanwhile, the paper plans to select the investment portfolio combined by companies at growth and maturity stages through multiple ways, hoping to find that whether they could break the Taiwan Index 50 for excess returns and investors’ profits. The three-dimension analysis proposed by Anthony and Ramesh (1992), plus the combination of cash flow put forward by Dickinson (2011) and the F-score way of selecting stocks by Piotroski(2000), were employed to select the investment portfolio of companies at growth and maturity stage.

    目錄 摘要 i 誌謝 vi 目錄 vii 第一章 緒論 - 1 - 1.1研究流程 - 1 - 1.2研究背景與動機 - 1 - 1.3研究目的 - 4 - 1.4研究範圍及對象 - 5 - 第二章 文獻回顧 - 6 - 2.1台灣50指數 - 6 - 2.2企業生命週期理論之文獻 - 7 - 2.3 F-score - 11 - 2.4績效衡量(Performance Measurement) - 14 - 2.4.1 Treynor績效指標(Treynor Index) - 14 - 2.4.2 Sharpe績效指標(Sharpe Index) - 14 - 2.4.3 Jensen績效指標(Jensen Index) - 15 - 第三章 研究樣本與研究方法 - 16 - 3.1研究假說 - 16 - 3.1.1四指標打分法 - 17 - 3.1.2現金流組合法 - 23 - 3.1.3 F-score計算方法 - 23 - 3.2報酬率計算方式 - 26 - 第四章 實證結果與分析 - 27 - 4.1各變數之敘述統計量 - 27 - 4.1.1四指標成長組各年度敘述統計量 - 27 - 4.1.2四指標成熟組各年度敘述統計量 - 28 - 4.1.3現金流成長組各年度敘述統計量 - 28 - 4.1.4現金流成熟組各年度敘述統計量 - 29 - 4.1.5 F高分組各年度敘述統計量 - 29 - 4.2結果分析 - 30 - 4.2.1台灣50指數每年報酬及夏普指數 - 30 - 4.2.2四指標成長組每年報酬及夏普指數 - 32 - 4.2.3四指標成熟組每年報酬及夏普指數 - 33 - 4.2.4現金流成長組每年報酬及夏普指數 - 35 - 4.2.5現金流成熟組每年報酬及夏普指數 - 36 - 4.2.6 F高分組每年報酬及夏普指數 - 38 - 第五章 結論與建議 - 40 - 5.1結論 - 40 - 5.2建議 - 41 - 參考文獻 - 42 - 附錄 - 44 -

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