間接利用世代間某等位基因頻率的變化來估計有效母體總數，已是不少生物學家研究的方向。其中 R. S. WAPLES ( 1989 ) 參考 NEI and TAJIMA ( 1983 ) 所提的模式 ( N–T model ) 與抽樣方案，將此方法一般化，此一般化之模式亦為本文主要的參考依據。在推論的過程中，根據 WRIGHT–FISHER ( 1931 ) 模式，等位基因變化量標準化後之變異數 ( F ) 扮演要角。藉由計算 F 的近似期望值，吾人可推得有效母體總數的估計量。因此，也有學者提出不同的 F 計算式，希望藉此改善有效母體總數估計量的估計值。
　　模擬過程中發現，當母體中原始的等位基因頻率比較極端或抽樣世代數增加時，原估計值會偏高。為了改善這樣的狀況，我們做了些嘗試。其中利用馬克勞林展開式 ( Maclaurin expansion ) 並取一次近似所得估計量，可以改善原估計量高估之情形，第三章便介紹 R. S. WAPLES 推論的估計量以及吾人所推得的新估計量。在第四章，除了介紹模擬的方法，也會比較 F 的各計算式引入新、舊估計式之結果，以說明新的 F 計算式 Fna 引入有效母體總數估計量的估計值最佳。第五章是結論，並說明目前仍可進行的部份，循此模式可進一步討論的問題，與其他可以考慮的研究方法。最後附上遺傳漂變 ( genetic drift ) 中，等位基因期望值與變異數之推導，以及研究過程中曾考慮的方法以供參考。

　Several authors have explored the temporal method for estimating effective population size ( Ne ) from the standardized variance in allele frequency change ( F ). The model considered in the thesis is proposed by NEI and TAJIMA ( 1981 ), followed by POLLAK ( 1983 ) and generalized by WAPLES ( 1989 ). By the MacLaurin expansion, we derive a new estimator. Computer simulations show that the estimates of our new estimator are, in general, lower than that of the original estimator proposed by WAPLES . Although previous authors have proposed some method for estimating F, such as the Fc of NEI and TAJIMA ( 1981 ) and the Fk of POLLAK ( 1983 ), we also suggest a new estimator for F, said Fna. Not only simulation results indicate that the effects of Fna are much better than that of other estimators of F, but theoretical demonstration can be shown to support the point of view.

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