本論文主要目的是開發出一個結合模糊理論、層級分析法與品質機能展開(Fuzzy AHP-QFD)的方法，以評估機械因素的權重來解決複雜的飛航安全問題。層級分析法被用來量化相對權重的強度，且經由一致性檢定來避免在決策過程中無效的問卷；再者經由專家應用在品質機能展開的輸入來改善傳統層級分析法分類性的問題。目的是在經由專家們推舉出一個可以有效獲得權重值和排序的的風險評估方法。經由結合模糊層級分析法和品質機能展開，在決策過程中合理性與客觀性可以得到解釋。在建構模式的有效性上，應用在飛航安全機械因素上是可行的。經由模擬結果顯示，其中“發動機重大故障，無法維持正常推力”和“引擎過熱，螺旋槳失效”的機械因素經由層級分析法得到個別的權重是31.38% 和20.01%，但是經由品質機能展開的結合，權重降低至11.96% 和11.21%。另一方面，當“設計，製造”、“失火，煙霧”、“未經同意修改零組件”和“其他”的權重值增高時，這個結果顯示機械因素在飛航安全裡透過此論文之方法(Fuzzy AHP-QFD)可以得到較好的評估。

This thesis aims at evaluating a complex aviation safety problem by assessing the importance weighting of the technical factors. A model integrating fuzzy logic, analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and quality function deployment (QFD) is developed to evaluate aircraft safety. AHP is applied to quantify the strength of the relative importance weighting and to avoid the invalid questionnaire in decision process by consistency checking, and QFD is applied to improve the categorical problem of AHP model by expert’s input. The objective is to propose a model to acquire the importance weighting/ranking by experts for efficient risk assessment. By integrating fuzzy-AHP and -QFD, the justification and objectivity can be explained/obtained in the decision process. The effectiveness in modeling, evaluating and assessing is validated by the application to technical factors of aviation safety. Simulation results show that the weightings of technical factors “Extensive engine failure, uncontained engine fire” and “Engine overheat, propeller failure” are 31.38% and 20.01% by AHP model, but they are decreased to 11.96% and 11.21%, respectively by the fuzzy AHP with QFD model. While the weightings of “Design, manufacture”, “Fire, smoke (cockpit, cabin, cargo)”, “Unapproved modification/bogus parts” and “Other” are increased. The result shows that the technical factors can be better evaluated in aviation safety.

[1]Andronikidis, A., Georgiou, A. C., Gotzamani, K. and Kamvysi, K., “The Application of Quality Function Deployment in Service Quality Management,” TQM Journal, Vol. 21, No. 4, pp. 319-333, 2009.
[2]Benedetto, A., “A Decision Support System for the Safety of Airport Runways: The Case of Heavy Rainstorms,” Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practices, Vol. 36, No. 8, pp. 665–682, 2002.
[3]Bhattacharya, A., Sarkar, B. and Mukherjee, S. K., “Integrating AHP with QFD for Robot Selection under Requirement Perspective,” International Journal of Production Research, Vol. 43, No. 17, pp. 3671-3685, 2005.
[4]Boeing, “Accidents by Primary Cause,” Statistical Summary of Commercial Jet Airplane Accidents, pp. 17, 2006.
[5]Boeing, “Accident Rates and Onboard Fatalities by Year,” Statistical Summary of Commercial Jet Airplane Accidents, pp. 18, 2009 a.
[6]Boeing, “Aviation Occurrence Categories,” Statistical Summary of Commercial Jet Airplane Accidents, pp. 23, 2009 b.
[7]Buckley, J. J., “Fuzzy Hierarchical Analysis,” Fuzzy Sets and Systems, Vol. 17, No. 3, pp. 233-247, 1985.
[8]Cheng, C. H., Yang, K. L. and Hwang, C. L., “Evaluating Attack Helicopters by AHP Based on Linguistic Variable Weight,” European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 116, No. 2, pp. 423-435, 1999.
[9]Cheng, C. H. and Mon, D. L., “Evaluating Weapon System by Analytic Hierarchy Process Based on Fuzzy Scales,” Fuzzy Sets and Systems, Vol. 63, pp. 1-10. 1994.
[10]Cheung, A., Ip, W. H. and Lu, D., “Expert System for Aircraft Maintenance Services Industry,” Journal of Quality in Maintenance Engineering, Vol. 11, No. 4, pp. 348-358, 2005.
[11]Chuang, C. Y., “Application of Fuzzy QFD for Knowledge Acquisition in Product Design,” Master Thesis, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan R.O.C, 2008.
[12]Dubois, D. and Prade, H., “Additions of Interactive Fuzzy Numbers,” IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, Vol. AC-26, No. 4, pp. 926-936, 1981.
[13]Edwards, E., “Man and Machine: Systems for Safety,” The BALPA Technical Symposium, London, 1972.
[14]Fiorenzo, F. and Alessandro, R., “Rating Scales and Prioritization in QFD,” International Journal of Quality & Reliability Management, Vol. 16, No. 1, pp. 85-97, 1999.
[15]Forman, E. and Peniwati, K., “Aggregating Individual Judgments and Priorities with the Analytic Hierarchy Process,” European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 108, pp. 165-169, 1998.
[16]Hanumaiah, N., Ravi, B. and Mukherjee, N. P., “Rapid Hard Tooling Process Selection Using QFD-AHP Methodology,” Journal of Manufacturing Technology Management, Vol. 17, No. 3, pp. 332-350, 2006.
[17]Heinrich, H. W., “Industrial Accident Prevention,” McGraw-Hill Insurance Series, USA, 1931.
[18]Herrera, F., Viedma, E. H. and Verdegay, J. L., “A Linguistic Decision Process in Group Decision-Making,” Group Decision and Negotiation, Vol. 5, No. 2, pp. 165-176, 1996.
[19]Huang, L. and Li, X., “Research on Determining the Key Technology of New Product Plan and Design,” IEEE International Conference on Robotics and Biomimetics, pp. 1532-1537, 2008.
[20]IATA, “IATA’s Accident Classification System,” IATA Safety Report 2006, Annex1, A1, pp. 67-71, 2007.
[21]Conway, J., “Murphy’s Law and the Value of Work,” The Journal of Value Inquiry, Vol. 16, No. 4, 1982.
[22]Kaufmann, A. and Gupta, M. M., “Introduction to Fuzzy Arithmetic: Theory and Applications,” Van Nostrand Reinhold Company, New York, 1985.
[23]Mineata, N. Y., “Avoiding Aviation Gridlock: A Consensus for Change,” Technical Report, National Civil Aviation Review Commission, 1997.
[24]Moisiadis, F., “The Fundamentals of Prioritizing Requirements,” SETE (The Conference of The Systems Engineering Society of Australia (SESA) and International Test and Evaluation Association (ITEA)), Sydney, Australia, 2002.
[25]Myint, S., “A Framework of an Intelligent Quality Function Deployment (IQFD) for Discrete Assembly Environment,” Computers and Industrial Engineering, Vol. 45, No. 2, pp. 269-283, 2003.
[26]Partovi, F. Y., “A Quality Function Deployment Approach to Strategic Capital Budgeting,” The Engineering Economist, Vol. 44, No. 3, pp. 239-260, 1999.
[27]Partovi, F. Y. and Epperly, J. M., “A Quality Function Deployment Approach to Task Organization in Peacekeeping Force Design,” Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Vol. 33, No. 2, pp. 131-149, 1999.
[28]Partovi, F. Y. and Corredoira, R. A., “Quality Function Deployment for the Good of Soccer,” European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 137, No. 3, pp. 642-656, 2002.
[29]Partovi, F. Y., “An Analytic Model for Locating Facilities Strategically,” The International Journal of Management Science, Omega, Vol. 34, No. 1, pp. 41-55, 2006.
[30]Reason, J., “Human Error,” Cambridge University Press Limited, England, 1990.
[31]Saaty, T. L., “A Scaling Method for Priorities in Hierarchical Structures,” Journal of Mathematical Psychology, Vol. 15, No. 3, pp. 234-281, 1977.
[32]Saaty, T. L., “The Analytic Hierarchy Process, Planning, Priority Setting, and Resource Allocation,” McGraw-Hill, New York, 1980.
[33]Saaty, T. L., “How to Make a Decision: The Analytic Hierarchy Process,” European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 48, pp. 9-26, 1990.
[34]Shillito, M. L., Advanced QFD, John Wiley & Sons, 1994.
[35]Steuer, R. E. and Na, P., “Multiple Criteria Decision Making Combined with Finance: A Categorized Bibliographic Study,” European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 150, No. 3, pp. 496-515, 2003.
[36]Vaidya, O. S. and Kumar, S., “Analytic Hierarchy Process: An Overview of Applications,” European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 169, No. 1, pp. 1-29, 2006.
[37]Wang, L., Sun, R. and Yang, Z., “Analysis and Evaluation of Human Factors in Aviation Maintenance based on Fuzzy and AHP Method,” International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management, pp. 876-880, 2009.
[38]Wiegmann, D. and Shappell, S., “A Human Error Approach to Aviation Accident Analysis: The Human Factors Analysis and Classification System,” Aldersho, Great Britain: Ashgate Publishing Company, 2003.
[39]Wilhelm, M. R. and Parsaei, H. R., “A Fuzzy Linguistic Approach to Implementing a Strategy for Computer Integrated Manufacturing,” Fuzzy Sets and Systems, Vol. 42, No. 2, pp. 191-204, 1991.
[40]William, H., “Integrated Analytic Hierarchy Process and Its Applications-A Literature Review”, European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 186, No. 1, pp. 211-228, 2008.
[41]Zakarian, A. and Kusiak, A., “Forming Teams: An Analytic Approach,” IIE Transactions, Vol. 31, No. 1, pp. 85-97, 1999.
[42]Zhao, Z., “Evaluating Airlines Safety Using Fuzzy Simulation Technique,” International Symposium on Intelligent Information Technology Application Workshop, pp. 851-854, 2008.
[43]Zhao, Z., Liu, L. and Liu, F., “Airport internal safety risk assessment using fuzzy hierarchy process approach,” International Symposium on Computational Intelligence and Design, Vol. 1, pp. 170-173, 2008.