盲盒作為不確定性行銷的創新模式增長強勁，但各國法規不一，使零售商面臨資訊透明度與娛樂價值的權衡。本研究整合比例偏誤與控制錯覺理論，探討機率揭露格式（未揭露、分數、百分比格式）對購買意圖的影響，並分析情境「知覺幸運感」的中介路徑，以及「選擇模式」（主動挑選對比被動接受）的調節邊界條件。研究採用 3 × 2 的組間實驗設計，於台灣回收 175 份有效樣本進行分析。結果顯示，總體資料下機率格式的主效果及中介效果皆未達顯著。然而，選擇模式具有顯著的調節式中介效應：在缺乏自主權的「被動接受」情境下，百分比格式（11.1%）的數學精準性會流於冷酷的現實檢視，顯著壓低知覺幸運感與購買意圖，而分數格式（1/9）則能維持較高幸運感；相反地，在「主動挑選」情境下，物理挑選引發的控制錯覺形成了心理緩衝，完全抵消了精準機率格式的負面衝擊。本研究拓展了數值框架效應，實務上建議業者在販賣機等被動通路優先採用分數格式，以兼顧合規與享樂幻想，亦為政策制定者提供了立法依據。

As an innovative form of uncertainty marketing, blind boxes have experienced explosive growth, yet inconsistent regulatory frameworks for probability disclosure pose a strategic dilemma for retailers. Grounded in Ratio Bias and the Illusion of Control frameworks, this study investigates the impacts of "Probability Disclosure Formats" (No Disclosure, Ratio, and Percentage) on consumers' "Purchase Intention," exploring the mediating mechanism of "Perceived Luck" and the moderating role of "Selection Mode" (Active Choice vs. Passive Acceptance). A 3 × 2 between-subjects experimental design was deployed, yielding 175 valid responses in Taiwan. The empirical results indicate that the aggregated direct main effect of probability formats and the standalone mediating role of perceived luck are not statistically significant. Crucially, however, selection mode exerts a robust moderated mediation effect. Under "Passive Acceptance" (e.g., vending machines), the mathematical precision of the percentage format (11.1%) triggers a reality check that suppresses luck perception and buying intent, whereas the ratio format (1/9) mitigates this decline. Conversely, under "Active Choice," the physical act of choosing generates an illusion of control that functions as a psychological buffer, completely neutralizing the negative impact of explicit mathematical precision. This study extends numerical risk framing into hedonic consumption, guiding marketers to strategically prioritize ratio formats within passive channels to safeguard hedonic illusions, while offering regulators insights for balanced policy-making.

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