本研究蒐集與校估全台門市數量前三大超市(全聯福利中心、美廉社、頂好)的年營收資料、台灣民眾於超市購物之頻率與平均消費金額，建構出模擬超市營收之模型，並將模擬之營收以空間統計進行分析。本研究以台灣門市數量最多的全聯福利中心為主要研究對象，並以台北市為研究範圍，透過地理資訊系統SuperGIS軟體計算出消費者至超市間的距離以及超市與超市之間的距離，以Fotheringham於1985年提出之目的地競爭模型(Competing Destinations Model, CDM)計算出消費者選擇超市的效用、選擇超市的機率，最後以支出方程式模擬出超市總營收以及平均單店日營收，並於模型中加入競爭與凝聚效果參數，觀察不同參數值下的營收變化。最後加入空間統計分析，檢定超市的門市營收以及競爭範圍內門市數量在空間中的分布情形，推測目前仍有機會獲利的展店位置以及競爭過度不建議再繼續展店的區域。研究結果顯示，北投區雖為台北市人口密度最低的區域，但在區域中競爭門市數量也較少，得以產生高營收群聚的現象，士林區以及信義區屬於營收高群聚，而競爭範圍內門市數不顯著，表示這兩個區域營收較高且門市間不至於過度競爭，故北投區、士林區以及信義區為全聯業者可考慮展店的區域；而在人口密度較高的地區如中山區、大安區及中正區，區域內的全聯門市密度高，門市間易產生相互瓜分營收的現象，以致於無法產生高營收群聚，故本研究認為全聯業者較不適宜於此區域繼續展店。

This research aims to explore the high-density expansion for supermarket chains in Taipei City. According to statistics, there are more than 2,000 supermarket stores in Taiwan until now. With the rising of store density, the two nearby stores will immediately have an influence on their revenue. Therefore, the objective of this research is to observe the influence on the revenue of supermarkets. We use Competing Destinations Model in this research to calculate the probability and expenditure of each store of supermarkets. Besides, we consider agglomeration and competition effect of supermarkets and observe the change of revenue under different effect. We use spatial statistics to analyze the spatial distribution of the revenue and the number of stores within competitive range. According to the analysis results, we suggest that PX Mart consider open new stores in Beitou District, Shihlin District and Xinyi District. By contrast, it is not supposed to open new stores in Zhongshan District, Da’an District and Zhongzheng District.

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