簡易檢索 / 詳目顯示

研究生: 陳韻伃
Chen, Yun-yu
論文名稱: 以分量迴歸模型探討美國金融控股公司獲利之決定因素
The Determinants of U.S. Bank Holding Companies Profitability:A Dynamic Perspective Using Quantile Regression
指導教授: 黎明淵
Li, Ming-yuan
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 財務金融研究所
Graduate Institute of Finance
論文出版年: 2008
畢業學年度: 96
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 53
中文關鍵詞: 服務風險獲利分量迴歸金融控股公司
外文關鍵詞: service, profitability, risk, bank holding companies, quantile regression
相關次數: 點閱:63下載:4
分享至:
查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報
  • 使用美國金融控股公司財務資訊來決定獲利的決定因素,樣本期間為2001年至2007年,本篇研究主要使用分量迴歸模型分析獲利在不同分量下,得到不同的估計值,與最小平方估計量相較之下, 此非線性的模型,可得到較多的資訊來解釋獲利與獲利決定因子間之關係,在不同分量下,估計值可能會產生正負相關性改變、大小以及顯著性的不同;從研究中,發現擁有高獲利的美國金融控股公司,亦即處於成長型生命週期階段,須承擔較多風險,亦須增加服務項目賺取手續費用來提升獲利;同時,擁有較高程度的財務槓桿,執行有利的投資機會,增加獲利;除此之外,維持高水準的流動性,避免高財務槓桿導致財務危機的產生。

    Financial data for U.S. bank holding companies (hereafter BHCs) listed during 2001-2007 are analyzed to identify determinants of BHCs profitability. A key feature of this study is analysis of changing distribution of RoE (return on equity) across BHCs and over time by quantile regression (hereafter QR) model and comparison of the results with OLS estimates. The empirical results of this model differ from th ose obtained by OLS estimates since the QR method processes more information from the sample distribution.
    The nonlinearities derived from conditional QR reveal considerable differences, including
    differences in size, significance, even sign of the impacts of identified determinants of
    BHCs’ profitability on BHCs with different degrees of profitability. It should be noted that
    certain existing puzzles of the relations between BHCs profitability and its determinants could be satisfactorily accounted for in t his study. Moreover, BHCs with higher profitability performance can increase not only risk-taking but also service activities to enhance their profitability. Meanwhile, they must maintain higher financial leverage to increase investment opportunities and h igher liquidity to avoid financial distress.

    I. Introduction ................................ ....1 II. Literature Review ...............................3 1. Credit Risk ......................................3 2. Liquidity Risk ...................................5 3. Market Risk ......................................6 4. Service Activities ...............................6 5. Bank’s Characters................................7 III. Empirical Methods ..............................11 1. No quantile models: OLS and LAD ..................11 2. QR model ................................ ........12 IV. Data and Empirical Results ......................15 V. Conclusions ......................................28 Reference ................................ ..........31 Table 1 Definition of Dependent/Independent Variables 37 Table 2 Descriptive Statistics Dependent/Independent Variables............................................ 37 Table 3 Correlation Matrix of Dependent/Independent Variables ............................................38 Table 4 OLS Estimation Results .......................38 Table 5 Impact of BHCs Size on Profitability across Various Quantile Levels .......................... ...39 Table 6 Impact of Debt Ratio on Profitability across Various Quant ile Levels ............................ 40 Table 7 Impact of Liquid Assets/Total Assets Ratio on Profitability across Various Quantile Levels .............................................. 41 Table 8 Impact of Gross Loans/Total Assets Ratio on Profitability across Various Quantile Levels ...............................................42 Table 9 Impact of Loan Concentration on Profitability across Various Quantile Levels .......................43 Table 10 Impact of Loan Loss Reserves/Gross Loans Ratio on Profitability across Various Quantile Levels ...............................................44 Table 11 Impact of Liquidity Ratio on Profitability across Various Quantile Levels ..............................45 Table 12 Impact of Trading Revenues/Total Assets Ratio on Profitability across Various Quantile Levels ...............................................46 Table 13 Impact of Natural Log of Service Revenues/Total Assets Ratio on Profitability across Various Quantile Levels ..............................47 Figure 1 The Perspective of Quantile Regression ................................ ..........48 (a) The Slope Changes in Magnitude Only ................................ ................48 (b) The Slope Changes in Both Magnitude and Sign ................................ ................48 Figure 2 Impacts of BHCs Size on Profitability: Constant Estimate by OLS versus Quantitle-varying Estimates by Quantitle Regression ................................ ..........49 Figure 3 Impacts of Debt Ratio on Profitability: Constant Estimate by OLS versus Quantitle-varying Estimates by Quantitle Regression ................................ ..........49 Figure 4 Impacts of Liquid Assets/Total Assets Ratio on Profitability: Constant Estimate by OLS versus Quantitle -varying Estimates by Quantitle Regression ............50 Figure 5 Impacts of Gross Loans/Total Assets Ratio on Profitability: Constant Estimate by OLS versus Quantitle -varying Estimates by Quantitle Regression ............50 Figure 6 Impacts of Loan Concentration on Profitability: Constant Estimate by OLS versus Quantitle-varying Estimates by Quantitle Regression ....................51 Figure 7 Impacts of Loan Loss Reserves/Gross Loans Ratio on Profitability: Constant Estimate by OLS versus Quantitle -varying Estimates by Quantitle Regression..51 Figure 8 Impacts of Liquidity Ratio on Profitability: Constant Estimate by OLS versus Quantitle-varying Estimates by Quantitle Regression ................................ ..........52 Figure 9 Impacts of Trading Revenues/Total Assets Ratio on Profitability: Constant Estimate by OLS versus Quantitle -varying Estimates by Quantitle Regression ............52 Figure 10 Impacts of Service Revenues/Total Assets Ratio on Profitability: Constant Estimate by OLS versus Quantitle -varying Estimates by Quantitle Regression..53

    Abadie, A., Angrist, J. and Imbens, G. , Instrumental variables estimates of the effect of
    subsidized training on the quantiles of trainee earnings . Econometrica, 70, 91-117,
    2002.
    Adjaoud, F. and Rahman, A., A note on temporal variability of Canadian financial services
    stock returns. Journal of Banking and Finance, 20, 165–177, 1996.
    Akella, S.R. and Chen, S.J. , Interest rate sensitivity of bank stock returns: specification
    effects and structural changes. Journal of Financial Research, 13, 147–154, 1990.
    Akhavein, J.D., Berger, A.N. and Humphrey, D.B., The effects of bank megamergers on
    efficiency and prices: evidence from the profit function. Review of Industrial
    Organization, 12, 95-139, 1997.
    Altunbas, Y., Gardener, EPM., Molyneux, P. and Moore B. , Efficiency in European
    banking. European Economic Review, 45, 1931-1955, 2001.
    Angbazo, L., Commercial bank net interest margins, default risk, interest -rate risk, and
    off-balance sheet banking. Journal of Banking and Finance , 21, 55-87, 1997.
    Angrist, J., Chernozhukov, V. and Fernandez -Val, I., Quantile regression under
    misspecification, with an application to the U.S. wage structure. Econometrica, 74,
    539-563, 2006.
    Arias, O., Hallock, K. and Sosa-Escudero, W., Individual heterogeneity in the returns to
    schooling: Instrumental variables quanti le regression using twins data. Empirical
    Economics, 26, 7-40, 2001.
    Baskin, J., An empirical investigation of the pecking order hypothesis . Financial
    Management, 18, 26-35, 1989.
    Bassett, G. and Chen, H.L. , Quantile style: Return-based attribution using regression
    quantiles. Empirical Economics, 26, 293-305, 2001.
    Berger, A.N., Hanweck, G.A., Humphrey, D.B., Competitive viability in banking: Scale,
    scope and product mix economies. Journal of Monetary Economics, 20, 501-520,
    1987.
    Berger, A.N. and Humphrey, D.B. , Efficiency of financial institutions: international survey
    and directions for future research. European Journal of Operational Research , 98,
    175-212, 1997.
    Berger, A.N., The relationship between capital and earnings in banking. Journal of Money,
    Credit, and Banking, 27, 432-456, 1995(b).
    Bikker, J.A., Hu, H., Cyclical patterns in profits, provisioning and lending of banks and
    procyclicality of the new Basel capital requirements. BNL Quarterly Review, 221,
    143-175, 2002.
    Boubakri, N., J.-C. Cosset, et al., Privatization and bank performance in developing
    32
    countries. Journal of Banking and Finance, 29, 2015-2041, 2005.
    Bourke, P., Concentration and other determinants of bank profitability in Europe, North
    America, and Australia. Journal of Banking and Finance , 13, 65–79, 1989.
    Boyd, John H., and Mark Gertler , Are banks dead? or are the reports greatly exaggerated?
    Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, 18, 85–117, 1994.
    Brewer III, E., Jackson III, W.E., Mondschean, T., Risk, regulation, and S & L
    diversification into nontraditional assets. Journal of Banking and Finance , 19,
    723–744, 1996b.
    Brewer III, E., Jackson III, W.E., Moser, J.T., Alligators in the swamp: the impact of
    derivative usage on the financial performance of depository institutions. Journal of
    Money, Credit, and Banking, 20, 482–498, 1996a.
    Brewer Jr., E., Lee, C.F. , How the market judges bank risk. Economic Perspectives,
    Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, 25–31, 1986.
    Brewer, E. and Lee, C.F. , An intracyclical analysis of the risk sensitivity of bank stock
    returns. Quarterly Journal of Business and Economics , 29, 125–144, 1990.
    Buchinsky, M., The dynamics of changes in the female wage distribution in the USA: A
    quantile regression approach. Journal of Applied Econometrics , 13, 1-30, 1997.
    Buchinsky, M., Recent advances in quantile regression models. Journal of Human
    Resources, 27, 88-126, 1998.
    Cantor, R., Johnson, R., Bank capital ratios, asset growth, and the stock market. Quarterly
    Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York , 10–24, 1992.
    Chamberlain, G.., Quantile regression, censoring and the structure of wages . Advances in
    Econometrics, 171-209, 1994.
    Chernozhukov, V. and Hansena, C. , Instrumental quantile regression inference for
    structural and treatment effect models . Journal of Econometrics, 132, 491-525, 2006.
    Chernozhukov, V. and Umantsev, L. , Conditional value-at-risk: aspects of modeling and
    estimation. Empirical Economics, 26, 271-292, 2001.
    Choi, J.J., Hiraki, T. and Takezawa, N. , Is foreign exchange risk priced in the Japanese
    stock market. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis , 33, 361–382, 1998.
    Conley, T. and Galenson, D. , Nativity and wealth in mid-nineteenth-century cities. Journal
    of Economic History, 58, 468-493, 1998.
    Demirguc-Kunt, A., Huizinga, H., Determinants of commercial bank interest margins and
    profitability: some international evidence. World Bank Economic Review, 13, 378-408,
    1997.
    Demirguc-Kunt, A., Huizinga, H., Financial structure and bank profitabil ity. World Bank
    Policy Research Working Paper, No. 2430, 2000.
    Demsetz, R. S. and Strahan, P. E. , Diversification, size, and risk at bank holding
    33
    companies. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking , 29, 300–313, 1997.
    DeYoung R. and Tara R., How do banks make money? a variety of business strategies.
    Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago , 52-67, 2004b.
    Docking, S., Hirschey, M., Jones, E., Information and contagion effects of bank loan -loss
    reserve announcements. Journal of Financial Economics , 43, 219–239, 1997.
    Eckard Jr., E.W., Concentration changes and large -firm/ small-firm efficiency differences:
    evidence from US manufacturing industries . Applied Economics, 22, 131-143, 1990.
    Eide, E. and Showalter, M. , The effect of school quality on student performance: A quantile
    regression approach. Economics Letters, 58, 345-350, 1998.
    Engle, R. and Manganelli, S. , CaViaR: Conditional autoregressive value at risk by
    regression quantiles. University of California, San Diego, Department of Economics,
    Working Paper 99/20. October, 1999.
    Flannery, M.J. and James, C.M. , The effect of interest rate changes on the common stock
    returns of financial institutions. Journal of Finance, 39, 1141–1153, 1984b.
    Goddard, J., Molyneux, P., Wilson, J.O.S., The profitability of european banks: a cross-sectional
    and dynamic panel analysis. Manchester School, 72, 363- 381, 2004.
    Golin, J., The bank credit analysis handbook: a guide for analysts, bankers and investors,
    John Wiley & Sons Ltd, 2001.
    Gosling, A., Machin, S. and Meghir, C. , The changing distribution of male wages in the
    U.K.. Review of Economic Studies, 67, 635-666, 2000.
    Guru, B.K., Staunton, J. and Balashanmugam, B., Determinants of commercial bank
    profitability in Malaysia. Working Paper, University of Multimedia, 2002.
    Haslem, J., A statistical analysis of the relative profitability of commercial banks. Journal
    of Finance, 23, 167-176, 1968.
    Hassan, M.K., The off-balance sheet banking risk of large U.S. commercial banks.
    Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 33, 51–69, 1993.
    Hassan, M.K and Bashir, A-H M., Determinants of Islamic banking profitability. The
    Economic Research Forum (ERF) 10 th Annual Conference, Marrakesh-Morocco,
    16-18 December, 2003.
    Hirtle, B., Public disclosure, risk, and performance at bank holding companies. Federal
    Reserve Bank of New York Working Paper, No. 293, 2007.
    Jahankhani, A., Lynge Jr., M.J., Commercial bank financial policies and their impact on
    marketdetermined measures of risk. Journal of Bank Research, 11, 169–178, 1980.
    Kane, E.J. and Unal, H., Change in market assessments of deposit-institution riskiness.
    Journal of Financial Services Research , 1, 207–229, 1988.
    Karels, G.V., Prakash, A.J., Roussakis, E., The relationship between bank capital adequacy
    and market measures of risk. Journal of Business Finance and Accounting , 16,
    34
    663–673, 1989.
    Kim, D., Santomero, A.M., Forecasting required loan -loss reserves. Journal of Economics
    and Business, 45, 315–329, 1993.
    Koch, T. W. and MacDonald, S. S., Bank management. Thomson South-Western, 2004.
    Koenker, R. and Hallock, K.F. , Quantile regression. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 15,
    143-156, 2001.
    Koenker, R., Bassett, G., Regression quantiles. Econometrica, 46, 33–50, 1978.
    Kosmidou, K., Pasiouras, F., The determinants of profits and margins in the Greek
    commercial banking industry: evidence from the period 1990 -2002. Working Paper,
    University of Crete, 2005.
    Laeven, L., Risk and efficiency in East Asian banks. World Bank Policy Research Working
    Paper, No. 2255, 1999.
    Lancaster, C., Hatfield, G., Anderson, D., Stock price reactions to loan -loss reserves: A
    broader perspective. Journal of Economics and Finance , 19, 29–41, 1993.
    Levin, J., For whom the reductions count: A quantile regression analysis of class size on
    scholastic achievement. Empirical Economics, 26, 221-246, 2001.
    Lynge, M.J. and Zumwalt, J.K. , An empirical study of the interest rate sensitivity of
    commercial bank returns: a multi-index approach. Journal of Financial and
    Quantitative Analysis, 15, 731–742, 1980.
    Machado, J. A. F. and Mata, J. , Counterfactual decomposition of changes in wage
    distributions using quantile regression. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 20, 445-465,
    2005.
    Madura, J. and Zarruk, E.R., Bank exposure to interest rate risk: a global perspective.
    Journal of Financial Research, 18, 1–13, 1995.
    Mansur, I., Zangeneh, H., Zitz, M.S. , The association between banks’ performance ratios
    and marketdetermined measures of risk. Applied Economics, 25, 1503–1510, 1993.
    Martins, P. S. and Pereira, P. T. , Does education reduce wage inequality? Quantile
    regression evidence from 16 countries . Labour Economics, 11, 355-371, 2004.
    Molyneux, P. and Thornton, J. , Determinants of European bank profitability: a note.
    Journal of Banking and Finance , 16, 1173–1178, 1992.
    Mueller, R., Public- and private-sector wage differentials in Canada revisited. Industrial
    Relations, 375-400, 2000.
    Musumeci, J.J., Sinkey Jr., J.F., The international bank crisis and b ank loan-loss reserve
    decisions: The signaling content of partially anticipated events. Journal of Money,
    Credit, and Banking, 22, 370–387, 1990.
    Pallage, S.J., An econometric study of the Belgian banking sector in terms of scale and
    scope economies. Brussels Economic Review, 130, 126-143, 1991.
    Panzar, J.C. and Willig, R.D., Economies of scale and the profitability of marginal -cost
    pricing: Reply. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 93, 743-744, 1979.
    Pettway, R.H., Market tests of capital adequacy of large co mmercial banks. Journal of
    Finance, 31, 865–875, 1976.
    Poterba, J. and Rueben, K. , The distribution of public sector wage premia: new evidence
    using quantile regression methods. NBER Working Paper, No. 4734, 1995.
    Rhoades, S. A., Market share as a source of market power: implications and some evidence.
    Journal of Economics and Business , 37, 343–363, 1985.
    Schultz, T. P. and Mwabu, G. ., Labor unions and the distribution of wages and employment
    in South Africa. Industrial and Labor Relations Review, 51, 680-703, 1998.
    Short, B.K., The relation between commercia l bank profit rate and banking concentration
    in Canada, Western Europe and Japan . Journal of Banking and Finance, 3, 209-219,
    1979.
    Smirlock, M., Evidence on the (non) relationship between concentration and profitability
    in banking. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 17, 69-81, 1985.
    Stiroh, K.J., Diversification in banking: is noninterest income the answer? Journal of
    Money, Credit, and Banking, 36, 853-882, 2004b.
    Stiroh, K.J., New evidence on the determinants of bank-specific risk. Journal of Financial
    Services Research, 30, 237-63, 2006.
    Strong, J.S., Meyer, J.R., Asset write-downs: Managerial incentives and security returns.
    Journal of Finance, 42, 643–661, 1987.
    Tanna S., Kosmidou K. and Pasiouras, F., Determinants of profitability of domestic UK
    commercial banks: panel evidence from the period 1995 -2002. Money Macro and
    Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference, Rethymno, Greece, 1–3 September,
    2005.
    Taylor, J., A quantile regression approach to estimating the dist ribution of multiperiod
    returns. Journal of Derivatives, 7, 64-78, 1999.
    Thakor, A.V., Discussion. Journal of Finance, 42, 661–663, 1987.
    Titman, S. and Wessels, R. , The determinants of capital structure choice. Journal of
    Finance, 43, 1-19, 1988.
    Trede, M., Making mobility visible: A graphical device . Economics Letters, 59, 77-82,
    1998.
    Vander Vennet, R., Cost and profit dynamics in financial conglomerates and universal
    banks in Europe. Working Paper, University of Ghent, 1998.
    Wahlen, J., The nature of information in commercial bank loan -loss disclosures.
    Accounting Review, 69, 455–477, 1994.
    Wetmore, J.L. and Brick, J.R. , Commercial bank risk: market, interest rate, and foreign
    36
    exchange. Journal of Financial Research, 17, 585–596, 1994.
    Williamson, O.E., Hierarchical control and optimum firm size . Journal of Political
    Economy, 75, 123-138, 1967.

    下載圖示 校內:2010-06-23公開
    校外:2010-06-23公開
    QR CODE