2012年全球產業供應鏈中經過日本311大地震、泰國水災，兩大災害重擊後，企業管理者清楚體會風險存在供應鏈的每一個生產環節，在這種極端災害的情況下，可見現今製造業對供應鏈系統之風險管理觀念仍薄弱，因此本研究認為中斷風險管理在製造商採購策略扮演關鍵的角色。
本研究中，強調之重心為製藥劑產業供應商個數探討，其中因規範限制原料藥供應來源只能唯一，即製藥劑廠商所使用之原料藥來源一次只能由一家供應廠商進行供貨生產。在製造商面臨供應失效情況所評估的各項影響成本因子繁多，而本研究針對製藥劑廠商的驗證成本、設置成本、系統失效成本作為主要影響製藥劑廠商之成本加以探討，期使製藥劑廠商之生產期望總成本最小。經由驗證分析影響備用原料藥供應商數目之參數有：當供應中斷或是系統失效時廠商的經濟損失成本、原料藥供應廠商之失效率、廠商之生產週期、製藥劑廠驗證一家原料藥供應商之單位成本。接著本研究針對四項參數影響進行數值分析，目的找出影響製藥劑廠商面對供應中斷風險下選取備用原料藥供應商使製藥劑廠商之生產期望總成本最小數目，以利管理者做決策分析。

Since the tragedies of Japan's 311 earthquake, Thai floods, after the two disasters hit, as well as other disasters, it has become increasingly clear that risks exist in every link in supply chains and open our eyes to the vulnerability of many of the systems in use today. Risk management, with no exception, is a vital part of purchasing planning, and purchasing managers are encouraged to be proactive.
We consider three cost that for the fist forming the set of eligible suppliers is costly to the firm; a set-up cost, which involves operations-related efforts, in order for the supplier to officially supply the materials to the firm; Supplier fails and the supplier list is empty, the firm incurs supply disruption, and thus is unable to produce any products, and a significant financial cost.
The main purpose of the thesis is considering a special type of supply chains where a firm adopts single sourcing to produce its products. However, single sourcing is liable to supply disruption which is costly to the firm. Therefore, the firm forms a set of eligible suppliers of size n from which the firm chooses a supplier from the eligible supplier set if the existing supplier fails within the production cycle.

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