本研究應用實質選擇權分析法(Real Options Analysis, ROA)探討在產品生命週期下之特許權價值與投資決策。實質選擇權分析法已在無數學者研究中證實，比傳統淨現值法更適合用於企業在投資計畫的決策上。參考目前文獻尚未發現有將實質選擇權的投資決策模型運用於標的資產具產品生命週期特性之特許權評價分析，故而本研究將產品生命週期之影響納入特許權之定價模型中，再以實質選擇權分析法探討特許經營者最佳投資決策。使用數值分析探討特許權考慮了產品生命週期後，影響企業最佳投資策略的關鍵因素為：(1)隨著特許權不確定性的增加，特許權價值也跟著上升。(2)當需求彈性越大，其特許權價值越低。(3)產品生命週期的期限越長，特許權價值越高。(4)無風險利率越大，對特許權價值的期待也越高。(5)特許期間越長，並不會因此降低特許權價值。(6)當固定成本越高，特許權價值也隨之減少。

Real options approach is used in this study to explore the concession value and investment decision-making under the product life cycle. The real options approach has been confirmed by many scholars, and it is more suitable for enterprises to make decisions on investment plans than the traditional net present value method. Referring to the current literature, no investment decision-making model that integrates the concession and product life cycle into the real options has not been found. Therefore, this study incorporates the impact of the product life cycle into the pricing model of the concession, and then uses the real options approach to discuss the investment decision-making model. The firm's optimal investment decision. After using numerical analysis to explore the concession with its underlying asset displaying product life cycle characteristics. We find the key factors affecting the company's optimal investment strategy are: (1) As the uncertainty of the concession increases, the value of the concession also increases. (2) When the demand elasticity is greater, the concession value is lower. (3) The longer the product life cycle, the higher the concession value. (4) The greater the risk-free interest rate, the higher the expectation of the concession value. (5) The longer the concession period, it will not reduce the concession value. (6) When the fixed cost of the concession increases, the concession value also decreases.

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