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研究生: 莊智豪
Chuang, Chih-Hao
論文名稱: 在遞減的放棄價值下退出策略的評價
Valuation of Exit Strategy under Decaying Abandonment Value
指導教授: 王明隆
Wang, Ming-Long
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 財務金融研究所
Graduate Institute of Finance
論文出版年: 2006
畢業學年度: 94
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 49
中文關鍵詞: 殘值經濟折舊退出策略放棄選擇權
外文關鍵詞: Salvage value, Depreciation rate, Exit strategy, Abandonment option
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  • 管理者在進行資本預算時須考量在投資進行時,投資計畫修正或變更的可能性在實務上,部分原始投資,例如廠房設備等,有次級市場的存在。當投資計畫的預期收益不如放棄價值時,投資計畫的營運有被終止的可能,管理者會選擇退出市場。我們將此管理彈性稱為「放棄選擇權」。又因廠房設備有其經濟使用年限,導致市場價值會隨著時間而降低,且投資計畫之放棄應為管理者在計畫進行時之任一時間,比較當時的預期投資收益與放棄價值,所做出之最佳決策。然而投資計畫價值的變動不一定來自於計劃本身,可能是受限於某些特定的市場條件或商品價格。故管理者是依據不確定性的變動作為決策依據,而並非投資計畫之價值。換言之,管理者心理存在者一退出門檻(Exit Threshold),當某特定不確定性小於這門檻時,意謂著投資計畫的預期收益小於放棄價值,廠商應退出市場。而隨著時間與放棄價值的變化,此退出門檻亦會變化。故「放棄選擇權」應為履約價格不確定之美式選擇權。本研究擬考量在實質選擇權的架構下,以資產的經濟折舊作為投資計畫的放棄價值。而資產又受限於有限的經濟使用期限,使得放棄價值會呈現遞減的狀況。在如此假設前提下,探討放棄選擇權對退出策略的影響與退出門檻在不同因素下的變化情形。

    Some capital budgeting methods measure the investment cost as irreversible, but in reality, many facilities have its resale value or salvage value. When management decides to exit the market, they may get some compensation called abandonment value or exit value. The exit strategy will depend on the relative amount between the expected operating profit of the project and abandonment value. However, the real determinant is not necessarily the project value, but market condition or product price is. We define the exit threshold as the indifferent point that the project value equals to abandonment value and management treat it as a trigger. Once the observed market condition is below the exit threshold, the optimal strategy is to exit the market and get the abandonment value. The abandonment value will decay with time due to its limited economic life and it implies that the exit threshold will vary with decaying abandonment value. Therefore, the abandonment option should be considered as an “American” put option with various strike values. This paper describes a capital budgeting framework based on the economic depreciation that improves the decision-making with an abandonment option model. We provide significant results that illustrate how the exit strategy can be pursued more easily with the increase of exit opportunities. In addition, although there are no certain directions concerning the variation of exit threshold, we will identify some simulation results under different sensitive factors.

    1. Introduction 1 2. Literature Review 5 2.1 Abandonment Option 5 2.2 Evaluating Methods 6 2.3 Economic Depreciation Rate 8 2.4 Market Competition and Exit Strategy 9 2.5 The Implications of Abandonment Option 9 3. Methodology 11 3.1 Basic assumption 11 3.2 The evaluation of a project with an abandonment opportunity at terminal 15 3.3 The evaluation of a project with two abandonment opportunities at a predetermined node and terminal 16 3.4 The evaluation of a project with abandonment opportunities at anytime before maturity 21 4. Numerical Solutions 26 4.1 The expected abandonment value under different abandonment opportunities 26 4.2 The Delta variations under different abandonment opportunities 28 4.3 The impacts of Volatility on the expected abandonment value and the exit threshold at different abandonment nodes 29 4.4 The impacts of Variable cost on the expected abandonment value and the exit threshold at different abandonment nodes 31 4.5 The impacts of Growth Rate on the expected abandonment value and the exit threshold at different abandonment nodes 33 4.6 The impacts of Depreciation Rate on the expected abandonment value and the exit threshold at different abandonment nodes 35 4.7 The impacts of Facility Value on the expected abandonment value and the exit threshold at different abandonment nodes 37 5. Conclusions and Further Research 40 5.1 Conclusions 40 5.2 Further Research 41 Appendix 42 Reference 43

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