本研究運用海運運量(包含貨櫃運量與散裝運量)、實質 GDP 成長率、布蘭特原油價格、採購經理人指數、工業生產指數、消費者物價指數、消費者信心指數與 COVID19 確診人數作為研究變數，建構時間序列模型，分別分析海運運量與經濟指標，以及運量與 COVID-19 確診人數之因果關係，觀察影響運量之因果。研究結果顯示，海運運量與經濟指標或 COVID-19 確診人數皆有共整合，具長期因果關係；經由誤差修正模型，分析其間之短期因果，得出以下結論，(1)散貨運量與實質 GDP 成長率為雙向因果關係；(2)散貨和貨櫃運量與消費者物價指數為單向因果關係；(3)工業生產指數與散貨和貨櫃運量為單向因果關係；(4)消費者信心指數與散貨運量為單向因果關係。另外，由各國 COVID-19 確診人數對於海運運量之研究結果可發現，(1)新興國家中，印尼、巴西之確診人數與海運運量無短期因果關係；(2)新興國家中，印度、俄羅斯與中國之確診人數與海運運量有單向因果關係；(3)先進國家之確診人數皆與海運運量呈現單向因果關係。本研究建議，海運經營者於研擬決策時，若遇特殊事件，除了其平常考量之因素外，可再考量多項領先指標之趨勢，以因應未來運量之變化。另外，研究中之國家，除了印尼與巴西，在本研究無特殊之結論外，其餘新興國家或先進國家，可透過疫苗或其他防護措施來降低確診人數所帶來之經濟衝擊。

In this research, shipping volume, the real GDP growth rate, the Brent crude oil price, Purchasing Managers Index, Industrial Production Index, Consumer Price Index, Consumer Confidence Index,, and the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases as research variables to construct a time series model and analyze shipping volume and economic indicators, as well as the causal relationship between shipping volume and the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in an effort to determine the cause of effects on volume. The research results show the following: (1) Bulk volume and the growth rate of the real GDP have a two-way causal relationship; (2) the bulk volume, container volume, and the CPI have a one-way causal relationship; (3) the IPI and bulk volume have a one-way causal relationship with container, and (4) CCI and bulk volume have a one-way causal relationship. In addition, in terms of the effects of the number of COVID-19 confirmed cases in countries on the shipping volume, it was be found that (1) among emerging countries, in Indonesia and Brazil, COVID cases had no short-term causal relationship with the shipping volume; (2) among emerging countries, there was a one-way causal relationship between COVID cases and the shipping volume found for India, Russia, and China; (3) among advanced countries under consideration, there was a one-way causal relationship between COVID and the shipping volume found for all of them. The findings of this research suggest that in cases of special events such as the COVID outbreak, maritime operators should consider the trends of leading indicators to cope with future changes in shipping volume. In addition, with the exception of Indonesia and Brazil, other emerging or advanced countries could reduce the economic impact by reducing the number of confirmed cases through vaccines or other protective mechanisms.

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