在台灣的光伏產業中，太陽能電池是最具有國際競爭力的產品。台灣的太陽能電池產值也已在全球排名第四，有鑑於太陽能電池的銷售量隨著全球的綠色環保風潮而不斷攀升，太陽能產業已被視為是極具發展潛力的台灣產業發展方向。本研究的目的便是要協助企業更影響太陽能電池出口供需的因素，並為台灣太陽能電池廠商的經營策略奠定決策基礎。

本研究中之模型變數為2007第一季至2009第三季的季資料，一共四十四筆，其中包含了匯率和油價等等可能影響出口供需之變數。出口價格及數量等資料則是取自台灣太陽能電池出口銷售量排名前四大的茂迪、益通、新日光及昇陽科。本研究先以計量經濟學中的Hausman Test檢定進出口影響因子模型中可能有內生性的變數，確認有內生變數存在後，再使用兩階段最小平方法進行資料的統計檢定。在實證結果方面，顯著影響出口需求的變數為美國的國內生產毛額(GDP)。另一方面，只有機器與設備支出(M&E) 顯著影響出口供給。

In Taiwan’s solar photovoltaic industry, the solar cell is one of the most internationally competitive products. Taiwan’s output value of solar cells has been ranked as fourth in the world. Moreover, the sales of solar cells continue to rise with the global “Green Trend”. With this in mind, the solar cell industry should be viewed as a very promising industrial development direction for Taiwan. This research paper is expected to assist companies to understand what affects the quantity of export demand and supply and provide strategic decision bases for solar cell manufacturers in Taiwan.

A total of 44 samples of the quarterly data from 2007 to 2009 were examined, including variables like Exchange rate and oil prices. Export price and quantity data were obtained from Motech, Yitong, NSP and PSI, which are the top four solar cell manufacturers in Taiwan (Gintech was excluded for its limited data). From the empirical results, only one variable, the GDP of America, affected export demand significantly; on the other hand, also only one variable, M&E, significantly affected export supply.

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