近年來中國國內金融市場逐漸擴大，外資的參與以及中國國內自身之金融交易成長，皆使得人民幣對國際經濟的影響力逐漸加深。觀察2009年後人民幣相關政策導向，各界皆認為人民幣匯率處於制度自由化與國際化進程中。本文擬藉由檢驗人民幣匯率與選定之總體經濟變數間的影響程度，觀察其自由化的進程發展。在模型選擇部分，本文利用向量自我迴歸模型 (vector autoregressive models，簡稱 VAR) 中的衝擊反應函數 (impulse response) 與預測誤差變異數分解 (forecast error variance decomposition) 進行分析。其中，人民幣名目與實質有效匯率 (effective exchange rate) 為主要被解釋變數；實質利率、外國直接投資、實質GDP、股價指數以及美元指數等為解釋變數，研究期間為1994年第1季至2017年第1季。分析結果顯示，人民幣匯率受到自身落後期與美元指數變動的影響較為顯著；其餘變數則因制度放寬時間點不一致，使該變數對於人民幣匯率的影響較小。最後觀察近年的相關議題，人民幣於2016年年初被正式納入國際貨幣基金組織 (International Monetary Fund, IMF) 所公布之特別提款權 (special drawing rights, SDR) 之中；且中國於2015年起逐漸將人民幣匯率與美元脫鉤，此舉可能使未來中國的總體經濟衝擊因應策略發生改變。綜合以上觀察，本文認為人民幣匯率確實處於自由化進程之中，且建議持續追蹤相關變數，以作為未來應對準備。

Due to the fast-growing financial market and accumulating inflow foreign investment in China, Renminbi gradually gains its global influence in recent years. Overview the Renminbi related policies after 2009, which is considered has been on the path of regime liberalization and internationalization. By examining the influence between Renminbi exchange rate and selected macroeconomic variables, this paper takes Renminbi’s liberalization process into consideration. The analysis employs the time series data of 1994Q1 to 2017Q1 and the vector autoregressive (VAR) models, which includes the impulse response function (IRF) and the forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD) methods. The response variables are the real and nominal Renminbi effective exchange rates; while real interest rate, foreign direct investment, real GDP, and U.S. dollar index (USDX) are the explanatory variables. The regression results indicate that the effective exchange rates of Renminbi are most significantly influenced by the lagged variables and the USDX. The other variables have less influence on the exchange rates because the regime of variables was liberalized on the different time point. Finally, the recent development events could be valuable issues for further discussion. For example, International Monetary Fund included the Renminbi to the special drawing right currencies in 2016. Moreover, China started to release the Renminbi's peg to U.S. dollar from 2015, and it may changes the economic shock response of China's government in future. In sum, we consider that the Renminbi exchange rate is on the path of liberalization, and we should keep track of the related variables for future investigation .

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二、中文
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（二）期刊論文
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