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研究生: 楊曉青
Yang, Hsiao-Ching
論文名稱: The Impact of Hedging Against Oil Price Movements on Stock Prices: Evidence from the Shipping Industry
The Impact of Hedging Against Oil Price Movements on Stock Prices: Evidence from the Shipping Industry
指導教授: 張紹基
Chang, Shao-Chi
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 國際經營管理研究所碩士在職專班
Institute of International Management (IIMBA--Master)(on the job class)
論文出版年: 2010
畢業學年度: 98
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 44
外文關鍵詞: Shipping industry, Stock return, Hedge, Derivative, International oil price, BDI
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  • The international oil price kept rising and fluctuated dramatically in recent years. The demand of oil from 2004 was much higher than what used to be forecast. Since oil business always ties with political views, changes in politics make the international oil price fluctuate more dramatically and it is much harder for the companies to forecast the trend of oil price. Facing the problems of international oil price rise and fluctuation, shipping companies try to use hedge to eliminate risk, besides signing long-term contract for a stable supply of oil. But some financial reports show that some shipping companies lost money in operating hedge.
    This study tries to investigate the relationship between the application of hedgy and company stock returns when shipping companies face the problem of international oil price rise and fluctuation. The objectives are 1) to test whether to apply hedge is related to the stock return during the research period; 2) to test how the amount is operated in hedge based on total sales amount is associated with the stock return. The results show that the variables of using hedge or not, international oil price and debit ratio have negative correlations with stock return of shipping industry. The variables, BDI and growth ratio, have positive correlations with stock return. This study also explains how the increase usage of hedge will increase firms’ exposure and the volatility of stock earning during the period in which the oil price constantly goes up.

    ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I 致謝 II ABSTRACT III 摘要 IV TABLE OF CONTENTS V LIST OF TABLES VII LIST OF FIGURES VIII CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Research Background and Motivation. 1 1.2 Research Objectives. 3 1.3 Research Flow. 3 CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW 5 2.1 Introduction. 5 2.1.1 Domestic Shipping Industry. 7 2.1.2 Hedge in Domestic Shipping Industry. 7 2.2 The Price of Oil and the Stock Index. 8 2.3 Hedge. 11 2.3.1 Selecting the Method of Hedging. 11 2.3.2 Articles Support Hedge Increasing Firm Value. 12 2.3.3 Articles Oppose Hedge Increasing Firm Value. 13 CHAPTER THREE RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY 16 3.1 Relative Statistics Systems. 16 3.2 Research Variables and Data. 16 3.3 Baltic Dry Index. 18 3.4 Research Model and Hypothesis. 19 3.5 Description Variables. 20 CHAPTER FOUR EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS AND RESULTS 22 4.1 Descriptive Statistics. 22 4.2 Durbin-Watson Test. 27 4.3 White Heteroskedasticity Test. 28 4.4 Significant Test. 29 CHAPTER FIVE CONCLUSIONS 38 5.1 Conclusion. 38 5.2 Managerial Implication. 40 5.3 Limitations. 41 5.4 Signification and Suggestions 41 REFERENCES 43

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