本文之研究目的為提升以地震為誘因之山崩潛勢分析之預測精度。本文主要分成兩部分，第一部份將因山區地形起伏所導致之地震強度放大的現象，納入預測山崩產生區的分析程序中；第二部分為對地震後山崩產生區上崩壞之岩土體進行滑動模擬，估計其滑動之軌跡與最終之停止位置，以預測山崩之滑動區與堆積區。
地震發生時，山區之地震強度會隨山區地形起伏而有放大或縮小的現象，一般來說，山頂處之地震強度會被放大，而山腳處之強度則會縮小，此現象統稱為地形放大效應；一般傳統的山崩潛勢分析很少將地形放大效應納入考慮，如此將高估山頂處邊坡之安全性；本研究採用可將複雜地形設置於自由面之波傳數值模型，並將波傳數值模型之自由面依實際山區之數值地形模型(DEM)建構，輸入應力波至波傳數值模型後計算起伏自由面之加速度強度，另外並計算當自由面設置成平坦水平面時所對應之加速度強度，兩加速度強度值相除後即為地形效應之放大倍率；接著考慮研究區附近位於平坦堅硬地盤上之地震測站，將此測站之地震記錄視為無受地形效應影響之地震強度，接著將放大倍率乘上此地震記錄後，即獲得受地形效應影響後之地震加速度歷時；進一步將尖峰加速度(PGA)與Arias Intensity此兩地震強度參數由加速度歷時中粹取，再將此地震強度參數連同邊坡強度參數(臨界加速度)一起帶入經驗公式後，即可計算出累積位移量值，此累積位移量參數為邊坡安全性之指標，累積位移量越大，表示越有可能於地震時發生邊坡破壞；將研究區中各規則網格點之累積位移量依上述方式計算後，即可獲得納入地形效應影響之累積位移量分佈圖，圖中累積位移量越大之區域，為越有可能形成山崩產生區之位置。
一般山崩潛勢分析大多著重於山崩產生區位置之預測，然而山崩發生時，山崩滑動區與堆積區上的生命財產亦承受相當程度的威脅；本文根據上述預測山崩產生區之潛勢分析結果，配合設定的崩壞門檻值，定義出山崩產生區的位置，接著再以模擬崩壞岩土體滑動行為之數值模型，模擬山崩產生區上岩土體崩壞後因重力作用而下滑的過程，並記錄其滑動軌跡與最終停止位置，此軌跡與終止位置即為某崩壞門檻值下山崩滑動區與堆積區的預測結果。
本研究選取九九峰、岩山與白石牙山等三個面積約共190平方公里的研究區域進行案例分析，此三區域於集集地震時皆發生山崩，本研究藉由此區域於集集地震前後之影像變異點資料所判釋的實際山崩位置，測試上述建議之山崩潛勢分析程序之預測正確性；執行上述所建議之分析程序後發現：考慮地形效應後預測山崩產生區之正確性，會高於傳統無考慮地形效應之預測結果；再進一步施以滑動模擬預測山崩滑動區與堆積區後，則能更正確的預測集集地震前後影像變異點位置。

A procedure that considers topographic effects and runout behavior is proposed for analyzing seismic landslide hazards. The theoretical topographic amplification factors and corresponding amplified ground motion are calculated. By using the amplified motion, a cumulative displacement map is generated through Newmark’s displacement method. The high displacement areas are defined as the source areas of landslides. A runout simulation that identifies sliding routes and the final deposition areas of the sliding material from these source areas is performed. Finally, the complete set of landslide zones, including source, and sliding and deposition areas, is predicted.
Three landslide hazard maps of the 99 Peaks region, Mt. Yan region and Mt. Baishiya region are evaluated, and the maps of actual landslides triggered by the September 21, 1999, Chi-Chi earthquake are compared with the prediction. Relative to the conventional procedure, the results show that the proposed procedures which include the topographic effect can obtain a better result for predicting the source area of landslides. And the proposed procedures, which combines topographic effects and runout simulation, can generate more accurate predictions for predicting the complete set of landslide zones, including source, and sliding and deposition areas.

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