本研究主要藉由灰關聯分析與因素分解法探討可能變因，如經濟成長、原油價格、碳交易價格與人口，對於歐盟27國能源消費的影響。因此灰關聯分析用以確認所選擇因子是否與能源消費存在關聯性，因素分解法將整體能源消費變動分解為部門別所占能源消費比例、能源密集度、環境成本效應、碳與能源價格比與原油價格五項因素。此外，由於歐盟27國運輸部門的二氧化碳排放於1990至2008年呈現增長，迥異於其他部門，因此運輸部門能源消費為本研究第二部分探討目標。而其能源消費變動被因素分解為運具別所占運輸能源消費比例、人均能源消費、科技因子、能源貢獻與原油價格五項因素。研究結果顯示，所挑選因子皆與能源消費相關聯，碳排放交易實質造成能源消費下降，為外部成本內部化的實證，然而研究區域存在著高原油依賴度的能源風險，運輸部門尤為顯著，因此使用再生能源與替代運具為可行方案，而替代運具如德國鐵路部門也於研究結果顯示為此地區之標竿產業。

The aim of this research is to explore the impacts of economic growth, crude oil price, carbon price and population on the energy consumption of the EU-27 by means of grey relational analysis and decomposition analysis. The grey relational analysis is used to investigate the relationships between energy consumption and selected variables. Energy consumption is decomposed to five factors: energy share, energy intensity, environmental cost effect, carbon-energy price ratio and crude oil price. In addition, transport energy consumption is also examined in this study, since the CO2 emissions from this sector increased between 1990 and 2008, while other sectors saw declines. Therefore, transport energy consumption is decomposed to another five factors: energy share, energy consumption per capita, technology, energy contribution and crude oil price. The findings are as follows: first, all the selected variables are grey related to energy consumption. Second, carbon emissions trading helps reduce energy consumption. Third, high oil dependence threaten energy security in the study areas, especially in the transport sector, and the development of renewable energy sources and alternative transport modes are feasible solutions to this. German rail transport, regarded as an alternative transport mode, is concluded by this research to be a good model in both the transport sector and related research areas.

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