在歷經了數十年的不斷的改良和演變，成長管理系統已經演化至最新一代的智慧型成長(Smart Growth)，國內也不斷嘗試將其概念融入都市規劃之過程之中，甚至在制訂中的國土計畫法結合其發展理念。但在未來政策多不確定之狀況下，智慧型成長是否能夠結合相關策略手段，達到其所要求的「緊密成長」以抑止都市蔓延的產生？故本研究嘗試在規劃支援系統的協助下，以情境模擬之方式探討智慧型成長策略對於都市發展的影響，並分析不同策略情境下的發展型態。

就模擬結果而言，在缺乏都市更新手段的智慧型成長策略情境中，雖然強調開發活動往市中心聚集，並且集中在已開發地區之中，使得該情境下新發展地區之分佈型態的確有較一般發展狀況下更為向市中心聚集的現象，但就人口的分佈而言，卻呈現了往低密度地區蔓延的發展型態，並不能夠完全達到智慧型成長所強調的抑止都市蔓延的政策目標。但在結合了都市更新政策的智慧型成長策略情境下，不僅能夠將人口導回市區之中，也提供更多的發展用地，就空間和人口分佈上，都能夠有效促成緊密型態的發展，增加都市發展效率。

Growth management had developed to the latest generation of Smart Growth after unceasing changes and improvement in decades. We are trying to combine the Smart Growth into the city planning in the nation, furthermore, fusing its central concept into the Territory Plan Law which was still under the process of enacting. However, would the Smart Growth reach its requests for compact growth by combine with the relative ploys and use the requests to inhibit the producing of urban sprawl under the unascertained policies in the future? This study assisted by the planning support system was to evaluate the effect of Smart Growth ploy on the urban development by scenarios and to analyze the developing forms under the different scenarios.

For the results of scenarios, Smart Growth device planning lacked a medium of urban renewal. In this scenario, it emphasized on the exploitation activities assembling to the downtown area and centered on the developed area. Moreover, the distributing form in the new developing area actually assembled to the downtown more than the general developing system. However, the distribution of population became clustering to the low density area rather than reached the aim of the Smart Growth which inhibited the urban sprawl. Therefore, the scenarios of the Smart Growth device combined with the urban renewal is not only leading the population back to the city, but also providing more development areas. Regarding the distribution of the population and space, it also promoted the development of the tight forms and raised the efficiency of the urban developing.

英文文獻
1.Alonso, W. (1964). Location and Land Use: Toward a General Theory of Land Rent. Cambridge Massachusetts: Harvard University Press.

2.Asgary, A., Klosterman, R., & Razani, A. (2007). Sustainable urban growth management using What-If? International Journal of Environmental Research, 1(3), 218-230.

3.Behan, K., Maoh, H., & Kanaroglou, P. (2008). Smart growth strategies, transportation and urban sprawl: simulated futures for Hamilton, Ontario. Canadian Geographer-Geographe Canadien, 52(3), 291-308.

4.Boyle, R., & Mohamed, R. (2007). State growth management, smart growth and urban containment: A review of the US and a study of the heartland. Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, 50(5), 677-697.

5.Dai, F. C., Lee, C. F., & Zhang, X. H. (2001). GIS-based geo-environmental evaluation for urban land-use planning: a case study. Engineering Geology, 61(4), 257-271.

6.DeGrove, J. M. (1984). Land Growth & Politics. Ciago: Planner Press American Planning Association.

7.DeGrove, J. M. (2005). Planning policy and politics. Cambridge, Mass. :: Lincoln Institute of Land Policy.

8.Doygun, H., Alphan, H., & Gurun, D. K. (2008). Analysing urban expansion and land use suitability for the city of Kahramanmaras, Turkey, and its surrounding region. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 145(1-3), 387-395.

9.EPA. (2006). This Is Smart Growth. In U. S. E. P. Agency (Ed.). Washington, D.C.: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

10.Ewing, R., Rendall, R., & Chen, D. (2002). Measureing sprawl and its impact. Washington, DC: Smart Growth America Press.

11.Filion, P. (2009). The mixed success of nodes as a smart growth planning policy. environment and Planning B-Planning & Design, 36(1), 1-18.

12.Foley, J. A., DeFries, R., Asner, G. P., Barford, C., Bonan, G., Carpenter, S. R., et al. (2005). Global consequences of land use. Science, 309(5734), 570-574.

13.Galster, G., Hanson, R., Ratcliffe, M. R., Wolman, H., Coleman, S., & Freihage, J. (2001). Wrestling sprawl to the ground: Defining and measuring an elusive concept. Housing Policy Debate, 12(4), 681-717.

14.Geertman, S. (2002). Participatory planning and GIS: a PSS to bridge the gap. Environment and Planning B-Planning & Design, 29(1), 21-35.

15.Geertman, S., & Stillwell, J. (Eds.). (2003). Planning Support Systems in Pratice. New York: Springer.

16.Gottmann, J., & Harper, R. A. (Eds.). (1967). Metropolis on the move :geographers look at urban spraw. New York: Wiley.

17.Howell-Moroney, M. (2008). A description and exploration of recent state-led smart-growth efforts. Environment and Planning C-Government and Policy, 26(4), 678-695.

18.Irwin, E. G., & Geoghegan, J. (2001). Theory, data, methods: developing spatially explicit economic models of land use change. Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment, 85(1-3), 7-23.

19.Jacobs, J. (1961). The death and life of great American cities. New York: Random House.

20.Kammeier, H. D. (1999). New tools for spatial analysis and planning as components of an incremental planning-support system. Environment and Planning B-Planning & Design, 26(3), 365-380.

21.Jaret, C., Ghadge, R., Reid, L. W., & Adelman, R. M. (2009). The Measurement of Suburban Sprawl: An Evaluation. City & Community, 8(1), 65-84.

22.Jiang, F., Liu, S. H., Yuan, H., & Zhang, Q. (2007). Measuring urban sprawl in Beijing with geo-spatial indices. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 17(4), 469-478.

23.Klosterman, R. E. (1999). The What if? collaborative planning support system. Environment and Planning B-Planning & Design, 26(3), 393-408.

24.Knaap, G.-J., Haccou, H. a., Clifton, K. J., & Frece, J. W. (Eds.). (2007). Incentives, regulations and plans : the role of states and nation-states in smart growth planning. Cheltenham, UK ; Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar.

25.Knaap, G., & Talen, E. (2005). New urbanism and smart growth: A few words from the academy. International Regional Science Review, 28(2), 107-118.

26.Koomen, E., Stillwell, J., Bakema, A., & Scholten, H. J. (Eds.). (2007). Modelling land-use change :progress and applications. Dordrecht: Springer.

27.Landis, J., & Zhang, M. (1998a). The second generation of the California urban futures model. Part 1: Model logic and theory. Environment and Planning B-Planning & Design, 25(5), 657-666.

28.Landis, J., & Zhang, M. (1998b). The second generation of the California urban futures model. Part 2: Specification and calibration results of the land-use change submodel. Environment and Planning B-Planning & Design, 25(6), 795-824.

29.Lopez, R., & Hynes, H. P. (2003). Sprawl in the 1990s - Measurement, distribution, and trends. Urban Affairs Review, 38(3), 325-355.

30.Lemp, J. D., Zhou, B., Kockelman, K. M., & Parmenter, B. M. (2008). Visioning versus modeling: Analyzing the land-use-transportation futures of urban regions. Journal of Urban Planning and Development-Asce, 134(3), 97-109.

31.McColl, C., & Aggett, G. (2007). Land-use forecasting and hydrologic model integration for improved land-use decision support. Journal of Environmental Management, 84(4), 494-512.

32.Newburn, D. A. (2002). Spatial economic models of land use change and conservation targeting strategies. University of California, Berkeley.

33.Parker, D. C., Manson, S. M., Janssen, M. A., Hoffmann, M. J., & Deadman, P. (2003). Multi-agent systems for the simulation of land-use and land-cover change: A review. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 93(2), 314-337.

34.Pettit, C. J. (2005, 2003). Use of a collaborative GIS-based planning-support system to assist in formulating a sustainable-development scenario for Hervey Bay, Australia. Paper presented at the 8th International Conference on Computers in Urban Planning and Urban Management, Sandai, JAPAN.

35.Reginster, I., & Rounsevell, M. (2006). Scenarios of future urban land use in Europe. Environment and Planning B-Planning & Design, 33(4), 619-636.

36.Riveira, I., & Maseda, R. C. (2006). A review of rural land-use planning models. Environment and Planning B-Planning & Design, 33(2), 165-183.

37.Ruth, M. (Ed.). (2006). Smart growth and climate change : regional development, infrastructure and adaptation. Cheltenham, UK ; Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar Pub.

38.Soule, D. c. (Ed.). (2006). Urban sprawl :a comprehensive reference guide. Westport: Green wood Press.

39.Szold, T. S., & Carbonell, A. (Eds.). (2002). Smart growth: form and consequences. Cambridge, MA: Lincoln Institute of Land Policy.

40.TRB. (2002). Smart Growth and Transportation: issue and lessons learned. Paper presented at the Smart Growth and Transportation.

41.Vonk, G., Geertman, S., & Schot, P. (2007). A SWOT analysis of planning support systems. Environment and Planning A, 39(7), 1699-1714.

42.Waddell, P. (2002). UrbanSim - Modeling urban development for land use, transportation, and environmental planning. Journal of the American Planning Association, 68(3), 297-314.

43.Waddell, P., Ulfarsson, G. F., Franklin, J. P., & Lobb, J. (2007). Incorporating land use in metropolitan transportation planning. Transportation Research Part a-Policy and Practice, 41(5), 382-410.

中文文獻
國內文獻
1.丁志堅. (1996). 運用馬可夫鏈模式度量土地利用變遷之研究. 國立台灣大學地理環境資源學研究所碩士論文
2.丁敬忠. (2006). 土地利用變遷對於農地適宜性之影響分析－以宜蘭地區為例. 國立台北大學都市計畫研究所碩士論文
3.王昱茗. (2003). 以非規則空間ca和gis基礎的都市空間發展預測模擬方法. 逢甲大學都市計畫研究所碩士論文
4.何錦杭. (2005). 一個以ca為基礎之永續城鄉土地劃設支援模式. 國立成功大學都市計畫研究所碩士論文.
5.李家儂, 賴宗裕. (2007). 大眾捷運車站周邊土地使用規劃模型之探討--多目標與多評準決策方法之應用. 都市交通, 第22卷(第七期), 頁35-49.
6.李家儂, 羅健文. (2006). 大眾運輸導向發展設計概念中步行可及性與大眾捷運系統旅次關係之初探. 都市交通, 20:4, 頁1-14.
7.李萬凱. (2007). 應用UrbanSim分析台北市土地使用變遷之研究. 臺灣大學土木工程學研究所博士論文
8.沈燿在. (1993). 改善山坡地開發管理制度之研究──應用成長管理之理念. 淡江大學建築研究所碩士論文
9.林元興. (2005). 都市土地開發方式與成長管理策略之研究-以南崁都市計畫區為例. 台北市.
10.林承緯. (2004). 台灣都市蔓延發展型態之研究--以台灣四大都會區為例. 國立成功大學都市計畫研究所碩士論文
11.林漢彬. (2004). 國土計畫法下城鄉發展區劃設之研究-以台中地區為例. 國立成功大學都市計畫研究所碩士論文.
12.邱穀工程顧問公司. (1992). 台灣地區環境敏感地劃設與土地使用適宜性分析-南部區域部分. 內政部營建署 (Ed.). 台北.
13.姜瑞菁. (2006). 應用智慧型成長概念檢視台北都會區改善空間分散發展機制之研究. 逢甲大學土地管理研究所碩士論文
14.施鴻志. (1997). 都市規劃. 新竹市: 建都文化事業股份有限公司.
15.徐國城. (2006). 緊密都市形態之正負面效益論述--兼論對臺灣城鄉空間發展之參考觀點. 土地問題研究季刊, 第5卷(第四期), 32-45.
16.高佩菁. (2002). 都市蔓延發展之研究. 國立台北大學都市計畫研究所碩士論文
17.張永葵. (2005). 應用gis與細胞自動機(Ca)模擬都市空間之擴張—以宜蘭平原為例. 中國文化大學地學研究所碩士論文
18.張曜麟. (2004). 都市土地使用變遷之研究. 國立成功大學都市計畫研究所博士論文
19.許珮漩. (2006). 台灣都市蔓延之影響因素分析. 國立政治大學地政研究所碩士論文.
20.陳玉嬌. (1998). 台中都會區成長管理策略之研究-以人口及住宅為例. 國立中興大學都市計畫研究所碩士論文
21.黃書偉. (1998). 區域成長管理監測評估支援系統之研究. 國立成功大學都市計畫研究所碩士論文
22.黃書禮, 游輝禎, 鄭秀藝. (1988). 土地使用適宜性分析--評估方法與應用. 都市與計劃, 15, 頁1-29.
23.黃國平, 洪慈佑. (2007). 都市緊密程度與捷運發展之系統動態關係. 規劃學報, 第34期, 49-67.
24.葉惠中, 盧光輝, & 陳朝龍. (2004). 坡地利用生態保育適宜性分析. 華岡農科學報, 14, 頁103-119.
25.詹士樑, 黃書禮, 王思樺. (2003). 臺北地區洪水災害風險分區劃設之研究. 都市與計劃, 30:4, 頁263-280.
26.鄒克萬、許智翔. (1997). 工商綜合區選址規劃支援系統之研究. 地理資訊學報, 1, 頁23-42.
27.鄒克萬, 郭幸福, 林漢彬. (2005). 一個以GIS為基礎之城鄉發展區劃設方法. 規劃學報, 32, 頁45-58.
28.鄒國信. (2001). 台北都會郊區土地利用變遷研究--以樹林市為例. 中國文化大學地學研究所碩士論文
29.嘉義市環境保護局, 弘傑不動產顧問股份有限公司. (2004). 嘉義市永續發展示範計畫書. 嘉義市.
30.劉小蘭. (1998). 完全預知下兩期都市擴張模型之研究. 國立政治大學學報, 76, 頁261-281.
31.劉瑋. (2003). 都市土地利用變遷與道路關係之探討 以台中市平地地區為例. 國立臺灣大學地理環境資源學研究所碩士論文
32.蔡勇美, 郭文雄. (1984). 都市社會學. 台北: 巨流圖書公司.
33.賴宗裕. (2003). 從成長管理到智慧型成長－理念與應用的發展. 第一屆土地研究學術研討會.
34.謝孟謙. (2005). 臺灣都市擴張之研究. 逢甲大學都市計畫研究所碩士論文
35.謝啟賢. (2006). 養殖土地利用變遷預測模式之建立－個體施為取徑. 國立臺灣大學地理環境資源學研究所碩士論文
36.簡文謙. (2003). 以gis及非規則空間ca為基礎的都市土地使用模擬方法. 逢甲大學建築與都市計畫研究所碩士論文
37.簡龍鳳, 賴宗裕. (2005). 論永續發展概念下緊密都市之空間結構思維. 土地問題研究季刊, 4卷2期, 16-24.
38.闕志峰. (1996). 以成長管理策略指導土地開發之研究. 國立政治大學地政研究所碩士論文
39.邊泰明. (2003). 土地使用規劃與財產權-理論與實務. 台北市: 詹氏書局.

簡體文獻
1.付海英, 郝普, 安萍莉, & 劉瑞. (2007). 基於精明增的城市空展方向分析-以山省泰安市例. 源科, 第29卷(第1期), 63-69.
2.任奎, 周生路, 張紅富, 廖富強, 吳紹華. (2008). 基於精明增理念的域土地利用构优化配置-以江宜市例. 城市管理与科技, 第30卷(第6期), 912-918.
3.鈕心毅. (2006). 規劃支持系統:一種運用計算機輔助規劃的新方法. 城市規劃學刊(02), 96-101.
4.諸大建, 劉東華. (2006). 管理城市成長：精明增長理論及對中國的啟示. 同濟大學學報（社會科學版）, 17(4), 22-28.
5.娟, 李江. (2006). 美“精明增”我城市空展的示. 城市管理与科技, 8卷五期, 203-205.
6.杜寧睿, 李淵. (2005). 規劃支持系統(PSS)及其在城市空間規劃決策中的應用. 武漢大學學報（工學版）, 38, 137-142.