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研究生：	王瀚濃 Wang, Han-Nung
論文名稱：	升級至第二代地面數位視訊廣播標準之觀望策略分析 Wait and See Strategy Analysis for DVB-T2 Technology Migration
指導教授：	黃光渠 Huang, Kuang-Chiu
學位類別：	碩士 Master
系所名稱：	管理學院 - 電信管理研究所 Institute of Telecommunications Management
論文出版年：	2014
畢業學年度：	102
語文別：	英文
論文頁數：	62
中文關鍵詞：	數位無線電視、第二代地面數位視訊廣播標準、成本效益分析
外文關鍵詞：	Digital terrestrial television, DVB-T2, Cost benefit analysis
相關次數：	點閱：108 下載：0
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台灣無線電視(DTT)產業採用的DVB-T標準有了下一代的升級版，DVB-T2。DVB-T2可以提供更高的頻譜使用效率。但是升級需要耗費DTT業者的時間與轉換成本，同時觀眾也必須要換機上盒。台灣在2012年才進行完數位轉換，民眾可能有抗拒的心態再次換機上盒。此外，DVB-T2對業者帶來的效益仍是未知數。存在於許多不確定因素下，科技升級規劃對政府與電視廣播業者需要有通盤的考量。
本研究探討兩種情況：一、DTT業者可以自由決定要不要升級，二、政府規定DTT業者一定要升級。如果業者可以自由決定，本研究嘗試藉由現有的資訊，包含業者財務狀況、頻道利用率、其他業者的選擇等等，找出既有業者與新業者是否會升級。而如果政府規定要升級，本研究將考慮業者的廣告收入、升級成本，以及時間價值，試圖找出最佳的升級時間點。
研究結果顯示，當無線電視廣播業者可以自由選擇，由於財務情況以及製播能力有限導致高重播率，他們傾向停留在DVB-2。然而，如果業者在新的執照期間內被規定要升級至DVB-T2的話，透過研究的成本效益分析，馬上升級是最佳的策略。

The new DTT standard, DVB-T2, has been widely adopted internationally. It enables higher spectrum efficiency, however, the migration to DVB-T2 takes time and money for television broadcasters, and viewers also have to buy new set top boxes for DVB-T2. The digital switchover had just be finished in 2012 in Taiwan, so the DTT viewers may be reluctant to buy new set top boxes. Moreover, the benefits brought by DVB-T2 is a question for DTT broadcasters. Since there are a lot of uncertainties of DVB-T2 migration, the transition issue requires a further investigation.
In this research, there are two scenarios: DTT broadcasters are free to decide whether to migrate, and DTT broadcasters are forced by the government to migrate in a certain period. When broadcasters are free to choice, this study analyzes what kind of action would be adopted for incumbent broadcasters and new entrants with the current information like financial capability, channel utility, other broadcasters’ decisions. While the incumbent DTT broadcasters are forced to migrate to DVB-T2, the model considers revenue, cost, and time to figure out the right timing.
The result concludes if broadcasters are free, they are not going to migrate to DVB-T2 since the current financial capability and the high rerun rates. However, if broadcasters are forced to migrate in a period of time, migrate instantly is the best strategy.

Abstract	I
摘要	II
謝誌	III
Chapter 1	Introduction	1
1.1	Background	1
1.1.1	Global DTT standards	1
1.1.2	Introduction of DVB-T and DVB-T2	3
1.2	Motivation	5
1.2.1	History of DTT standard evolution in Taiwan	6
1.2.2	The development from DVB-T to DVB-T2	7
1.3	Purpose/Objectives	10
1.4	Process	11
Chapter 2	Literature Review	13
2.1	History of DVB-T2 migration	13
2.1.1	Countries have not completed digital switchover	15
2.1.2	Countries with low DVB-T penetration rates	15
2.1.3	Countries with high DVB-T penetration rates	16
2.2	Previous research about cost-benefit analysis	17
2.2.1	History of cost-benefit analysis	17
2.2.2	The development of CBA in Taiwan	18
2.2.3	Cost-benefit analysis of DTT	19
2.2.4	Theory, processes, and the principles of CBA	20
2.2.5	Calculation model of CBA	20
Chapter 3	Broadcasters’ Analysis	24
3.1	DVB-T2 emulation in Taiwan	24
3.2	Stakeholder analysis	25
3.3	Channel utilization	26
3.4	Financial analysis	29
3.5	Broadcasters’ interaction model and analysis results	30
3.5.1	Incumbent broadcasters	31
3.5.2	New entrants	33
Chapter 4	Cost Benefit Analysis	37
4.1	Data collection, assumptions, and calculation	37
4.2	The analysis results	41
4.3	Sensitive analysis	43
4.4	Discussions	47
Chapter 5	Implications and Conclusions	48
5.1	Policy implications	48
5.2	Conclusions	48
5.3	Research limitations and future works	50
Reference	51
[中文文獻]	51
[English Reference]	52
Appendix	55

Figure 1-1: World adoption of DTT standards	5
Figure 1-2: The flow chart of this research	12
Figure 2-1: World DTT penetration rates for DVB-T2 countries	14
Figure 2-2: Two options of keeping DTT	21
Figure 3-1: The different type of broadcasters of DVB-T2	31
Figure 4-1: The two groups and members	41
Figure 4-2: NPV analysis for group 1	42
Figure 4-3: NPV analysis for group 2	43
Figure 4-4: Sensitive analysis result for group 1	45
Figure 4-5: Sensitive analysis result for group 2	46


Table 1-1: DVB-T vs. DVB-T2	4
Table 1-2: Countries of keeping using DVB-T and migrated to DVB-T2	8
Table 2-1: Development of CBA in Taiwan	19
Table 3-1: Stakeholders analysis	26
Table 3-2: DTT SD channels rerun rate	28
Table 3-3: DTT HD channels rerun rate	29
Table 3-4: Broadcasters’ profit in recent years	30
Table 3-5: Payoff model between FTV and other broadcasters	31
Table 3-6: Payoff matrix between FTV and other broadcasters	33
Table 3-7: Payoff model between incumbents and new broadcasters	34
Table 3-8: Payoff matrix between incumbents and new broadcasters	36
Table 4-1 The OPEX of broadcasters in 2013	38
Table 4-2: DTT rating points	39
Table 4-3: Estimated advertisement revenue of DTT broadcasters	40
Table 4-4: NPV analysis for FTV	41
Table 4-5: NPV analysis for group 2	42
Table 4-6: Conclusion for all groups	47
Table 5-1: The overall conclusion	49


                                    

[中文文獻]
[1] TV234(2014)，無線數位電視節目表，取自：
http://tv324.com/
[2] 「公共廣電數位化發展及高畫質電視頻道建置計畫」，公共電視，2012，取自：
http://web.pts.org.tw/~web02/2years/pdf/1-3.pdf
[3] 「公共廣電與文化創意及數位電視發展計畫」效益評估，行政院研究發展考核委員會，2010，取自：
www.ndc.gov.tw/m1.aspx?sNo=0052144
[4] 公共電視(2014)，關於公共電視，取自：http://info.pts.org.tw/intro/ab_mission.html
[5] 「民視蟬聯無線吸金王三立有線稱霸」，中時電子報，2014/01，取自：http://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20140123000802-260112
[6] 「民視39億營業額無線吸金王三立衝50億有線No.1」，蘋果日報，2013/02，取自：http://ent.appledaily.com.tw/enews/article/entertainment/20130201/34807759/
[7] 李羏(2012)，DVB-T2系統在歐洲的推廣現況，取自：http://rnd.pts.org.tw/p9/2012/08/DVB-T2%20in%20Europe.pdf
[8] 李羏(2011)，法國採用DVB-T2的廣電政策思維與推廣課題，取自：http://rnd.pts.org.tw/p9/2011/10/DVB-T2%20in%20France-final.pdf
[9] 李羏(2011)，現狀的停滯與不明的未來：台灣數位無線廣播電視營運情境分析研究，中華傳播學會年會，取自：http://rnd.pts.org.tw/p1/2011/07/Taiwan%20DTT%20Research.pdf
[10] 國家通訊傳播委員會(2010)，高畫質時代收視更精采，台北：國家通訊傳播委員會
[11] 國家通訊傳播委員會(2013)，無線廣播電視事業年度產值表，取自：http://www.ncc.gov.tw/chinese/show_file.aspx?table_name=news&file_sn=38409
[12] 國家通訊傳播委員會(2013)，無線電視台數位頻道播出比率，取自：http://www.ncc.gov.tw/Chinese/print.aspx?table_name=news&site_content_sn=8&sn_f=19065
[13] 「臺灣電視事業股份有限公司」，MoneyDJ 財經知識庫，2010，取自：http://www.moneydj.com/kmdj/wiki/wikiviewer.aspx?KeyID=bf817169-7075-45c9-a1a9-de2f1e88273b
[14] 臺灣證券交易所 (2014)，公開資訊觀測站，取自：http://mops.twse.com.tw/mops/web/index

[English Reference]
[1] Agilent Technologies (2012). DVB-T and DVB-T2 transmitter test challenges. Retrieved from: http://cp.literature.agilent.com/litweb/pdf/5991-1923EN.pdf
[2] Broadbandtvnews (2013). Belgium switches to DVB-T2. Retrieved from: http://www.broadbandtvnews.com/2013/04/06/belgium-switches-to-dvb-t2/
[3] Davidson, Isnardi, Fielder, Goldman, and Todd (2006). ATSC video and audio coding, IEEE, 94(1), 60-76.
[4] Digital TV research (2013). Digital Terrestrial TV Forecasts. Retrieved from: https://www.digitaltvresearch.com/ugc/DTT%20Forecasts%20TOC%20pdf_toc_78.pdf
[5] DiBEG (2013). Introduction of ISDB-T. Retrieved from: http://www.dibeg.org/
[6] DigiTAG (2009). Understanding DVB-T2: Key technical, business& regulatory implications. Retrieved from: http://www.digitag.org/DTTResources/DVB-T2_Handbook.pdf
[7] DVB Project (2012). DTT boom extends beyond Europe. Retrieved from: http://www.digitaltvresearch.com/press-releases?id=63
[8] DVB Project (2012). DVB Fact Sheet. Retrieved from: http://www.dvb.org/news/worldwide
[9] DVB Project (2012). DVB worldwide map. Retrieved from: http://www.dvb.org/news/worldwide
[10] DVB Project (2014). DTT deployment data. Retrieved from: https://www.dvb.org/resources/public/documents_site/dtt-deployment.xls
[11] Clarasó J. A, Baldo D, Benelli G, Daino G. L, and Zambon R(2009). Interactive digital terrestrial television: The interoperability challenge in Brazil. International Journal of Digital Multimedia Broadcasting. 2009, Article ID 579569, doi:10.1155/2009/579569.
[12] Norkring (2012). Belgium switches terrestrial TV. Retrieved from: http://www.norkring.com/norkring-belgium-switches-terrestrial-tv/
[13] OECD (2013). DTT penetration rate. Retrieved from: http://www.oecd.org/statistics/
[14] Rapidtvnews (2012). ORS to launch DVB-T2 package simpliTV in Austria. Retrieved from: http://www.rapidtvnews.com/index.php/2013020526179/ors-to-launch-dvb-t2-package-simplitv-in-austria.html
[15] Screen Digest (2011). Penetration rate on primary sets and in total, cable, satellite, and DTT. Retrieved from: http://www.screendigest.com/reports
[16] Transnational cooperation programme (2012). Pay-TV service in Croatia. Retrieved from: http://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/cooperate/cooperation/transnational/index_en.cfm
[17] Wikipedia (2013). World map of digital television transition progress. Retrieved from: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_television_transition

校內：2016-08-15公開
校外：不公開電子論文尚未授權公開，紙本請查館藏目錄

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