於氣候變遷風險日益升高與全球淨零轉型趨勢推動下，如何於維持地區發展動能同時減少溫室氣體排放，已成為當前永續治理重要課題。傳統觀點常將環境治理視為發展阻力，憂慮其可能推高成本、抑制投資，然有學者指出此觀點忽略環境與經濟間潛在長期正向效益。若能透過技術創新與制度調整，有機會同步實現成長與碳減量目標 。而隨臺灣氣候治理重心由中央逐步下移至地方，並由縣市層級延伸至鄉鎮地區，地區角色益顯重要。 本研究即聚焦於此落差，試圖釐清「發展與碳排是否可以兼顧」，並剖析鄉鎮尺度下各地區於不同發展面向中所面臨之潛力與挑戰。
為此，本研究跳脫「發展＝污染」傳統框架，整合「地區發展」與「溫室氣體排放」兩大面向，引介脫鉤分析概念，評估各地發展與碳排放協調程度與轉型潛力，並據以提出相應策略建議。實證空間以北臺都會區107 個鄉鎮為範圍，分析時間涵蓋2011 、2016 、2021 年三個年度 ，透過文獻回顧整理地區發展衡量方式、碳排與碳匯估算方法與脫鉤分析相關應用，建立包含永續發展與碳排放壓力之整合性評估架構。研究以三生空間(生活、生產、生態)理念為基礎 ，透過探索性因素分析歸納三大發展構面：「生活環境資源效率與品質」、「產業資本集聚與空間經濟表現」、「 低碳生活與產業結構轉型」，作為衡量地區永續發展依據。碳排放與碳匯則分別依能源活動數據與土地利用類型進行估算 ，運用Tapio 脫鉤彈性模型 ，分析各時期鄉鎮於發展與人均淨碳排放間之脫鉤關係與趨勢變化。
研究結果顯示，各構面發展得分與碳排放變化高度相關，多數地區發展行為伴隨碳排放壓力變化， 且脫鉤趨勢依不同地區特性而異。 整體看來， 後期(2016至2021年)多數地區未能延續前期(2011 至2016 年)協調成效，正向脫鉤比例下降，顯示現行制度設計與資源配置仍不足以支持發展與減碳同步推進，反映永續退化與轉型潛力不足。若進而就地區特性觀察 ，城鄉地區雖碳排放量相對較高，但脫鉤表現呈現穩定改善趨勢 ；反觀農村與山地地區 ，則受限於交通可及性 、建成區擴張、產業條件等因素 ，脫鉤狀態多呈惡化，為整體地區發展與碳排放脫鉤協調退化主因 。本研究進而指出，此脫鉤差距反映地區發展不均問題 ，未來應優先補強農村與山地地區低碳 、淨零轉型條件，透過如基礎建設改善 、節能技術導入與產業升級推動等措施 ，建構永續發展所需之制度與資源基礎。

In response to rising climate risks and the global shift toward net-zero, balancing local development with greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction has become a key issue in sustainable governance. While environmental regulations are often seen as growth barriers, emerging views highlight potential long-term synergies. As Taiwan’s climate governance shifts from national to local levels, the role of local areas grows more critical. This study explores whether development and emissions can be decoupled, focusing on the potentials and challenges faced by different local types.
Integrating development and GHG emissions, the study applies a decoupling analysis framework to assess coordination and transformation capacity. Using data from 107 townships in Northern Metropolitan Area of Taiwan for 2011, 2016, and 2021, it constructs an evaluation model based on the "production-living-ecological" concept. Exploratory factor analysis identifies three development dimensions: (1)resource efficiency and environmental quality of living environments, (2)industrial capital agglomeration and spatial economic performance, and (3)low-carbon lifestyle and industrial structural transformation. GHG emissions and carbon sinks are estimated from energy use and land use data, respectively, and Tapio decoupling model is used to analyze decoupling trends.
Results show strong links between development and carbon emission changes, with divergent decoupling patterns across localities. From 2016 to 2021, most townships showed declining coordination. Urban-rural areas improved steadily, while agricultural and mountain areas worsened due to infrastructure and industrial constraints. The study highlights local disparities and calls for targeted support to advance low-carbon and net-zero transitions.

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