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研究生: 彭敬芫
Peng, Ching-Yuan
論文名稱: 整合深度時序學習與成本軌跡穩定化之預燒測試最佳終止時機決策架構
A Cost-Driven Framework for Estimating Optimal Stopping Time in Burn-In Tests via Deep Learning and Trajectory Stabilization
指導教授: 劉任修
Liu, Ren-Shiou
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 資訊管理研究所
Institute of Information Management
論文出版年: 2026
畢業學年度: 114
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 83
中文關鍵詞: 預燒測試可靠度分析深度學習時間序列學習成本最佳化
外文關鍵詞: Burn-in Test, Deep Learning, Time-Series Learning, Cost Optimization
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  • 在高可靠度電子元件製造中,預燒測試 (Burn-in Test) 是用來篩選出早期失效品並確保產品品質的關鍵製程。然而,現行預燒策略多依賴統計衰退模型推估最佳測試時長,當失效樣本稀缺且衰退行為複雜時,容易因統計分布假設偏差而影響停止決策,造成測試成本增加與資源浪費。

    為解決上述問題,本研究提出一套結合深度時間序列學習與成本導向決策之資料驅動 (Data-driven) 預燒終止決策架構。針對砷化鎵 (GaAs) 雷射元件之電流衰退資料,本研究建立時間序列分類模型,使模型能夠根據不同測試時間下已觀測到的衰退資訊,逐步判斷產品狀態,模擬實際預燒過程中的終止決策。此外,考量預燒資料通常具有樣本數有限與不良品比例偏低的特性,本研究透過資料擴增方法增加訓練資料的多樣性,降低模型偏向多數類別的情形,並提升其在有限資料下的穩定性。在決策層面,結合成本模型並進行成本軌跡穩定化處理,同時考量測試運行成本與誤判風險損失,建立最佳終止決策機制。

    實驗結果顯示,所提出之方法能有效提升早期不良品辨識能力,並在維持產品可靠度的同時,有效降低整體預燒成本。相較於傳統統計方法與既有深度學習方法,本研究提出之架構可使預燒停止時間縮短約六成,並降低整體預燒成本。此外,研究結果亦顯示,當統計分布假設存在偏差時,容易造成分類效能下降,而本研究所提出之架構因不依賴特定統計分布假設,因此在不同衰退情境下具備較佳之決策穩健性與實務應用潛力。

    Burn-in test is a critical quality assurance process in high-reliability electronic manufacturing. However, conventional burn-in strategies often rely on statistical degradation models, which may lead to unreliable stopping decisions when defective samples are scarce and degradation behaviors are complex. To address this issue, this study proposes a data-driven and cost-driven framework for estimating the optimal stopping time in burn-in tests. A time-aware GRU model is developed to learn degradation patterns from partially observed sequences, and prefix slicing is used to simulate sequential decisions. SMOTE, transformation-based augmentation, and TimeGAN are applied to mitigate small-sample and class-imbalance problems. The prediction results are integrated with a cost model, while Savitzky--Golay smoothing and PAV-based slope stabilization are used to obtain a stable cost trajectory. Experimental results show that the proposed framework improves early defective-product identification and reduces total burn-in cost. Compared with statistical and CNN-based methods, the proposed approach reduces the stopping time to 757.5 hours and the total cost to 165.25.

    摘要 ii EXTENDED ABSTRACT iii 誌謝 xi 1 緒論 1 1.1 背景與動機 1 1.2 研究目的 3 1.3 研究貢獻 4 1.4 論文架構 4 2 相關文獻探討 5 2.1 現行預燒策略的發展與限制 5 2.1.1 傳統預燒最佳化策略 6 2.1.2 衰退模型應用 7 2.2 資料擴增與不平衡資料處理 8 2.2.1 過採樣方法與轉換式資料擴增 9 2.2.2 生成式資料擴增 9 2.3 深度學習於時間序列分析之應用 10 2.3.1 深度學習於時間序列異常偵測的應用 11 2.3.2 深度學習於預燒測試決策的應用 14 2.3.3 時間位置資訊與嵌入 15 2.4 成本模型與序列穩定化方法 15 2.4.1 成本模型與停止決策基礎 15 2.4.2 序列平滑與結構穩定化 16 2.5 小結 17 3 研究方法 19 3.1 研究流程概述 22 3.2 資料處理與擴增方法 24 3.2.1 資料前處理與類別平衡 24 3.2.2 轉換式資料擴增 26 3.2.3 TimeGAN 28 3.2.4 Gamma衰退資料模擬 30 3.3 分類模型架構與訓練流程 31 3.3.1 前綴序列輸入與GRU編碼器 32 3.3.2 時間嵌入與串接 32 3.3.3 MLP Head與分類輸出 33 3.3.4 分類錯誤風險與正類定義 34 3.4 最佳預燒終止決策機制 34 3.4.1 預燒決策成本模型 35 3.4.2 最佳終止時間判定 36 3.4.3 成本軌跡穩定化與終止判定細節 38 4 實驗與分析 44 4.1 實驗流程 44 4.2 實驗資料集概述 45 4.3 實驗環境與參數設定 46 4.4 實驗評估指標 47 4.4.1 混淆矩陣與基本元素 47 4.4.2 核心分類指標 48 4.4.3 成本評估指標 49 4.5 實驗結果與分析 49 4.5.1 實驗一:輸入特徵設計對預燒決策之影響 49 4.5.2 實驗二:資料擴增策略對預燒決策之影響 51 4.5.3 實驗三:成本軌跡穩定化對預燒決策之影響 53 4.5.4 實驗四:Gamma 衰退下之基準方法比較 55 4.5.5 實驗五:不同統計衰退假設對預燒決策之影響 56 4.5.6 實務應用情境說明 58 5 結論與未來發展 59 參考文獻 60

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