| 研究生: |
彭敬芫 Peng, Ching-Yuan |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
整合深度時序學習與成本軌跡穩定化之預燒測試最佳終止時機決策架構 A Cost-Driven Framework for Estimating Optimal Stopping Time in Burn-In Tests via Deep Learning and Trajectory Stabilization |
| 指導教授: |
劉任修
Liu, Ren-Shiou |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
管理學院 - 資訊管理研究所 Institute of Information Management |
| 論文出版年: | 2026 |
| 畢業學年度: | 114 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 83 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 預燒測試 、可靠度分析 、深度學習 、時間序列學習 、成本最佳化 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | Burn-in Test, Deep Learning, Time-Series Learning, Cost Optimization |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:43 下載:4 |
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在高可靠度電子元件製造中,預燒測試 (Burn-in Test) 是用來篩選出早期失效品並確保產品品質的關鍵製程。然而,現行預燒策略多依賴統計衰退模型推估最佳測試時長,當失效樣本稀缺且衰退行為複雜時,容易因統計分布假設偏差而影響停止決策,造成測試成本增加與資源浪費。
為解決上述問題,本研究提出一套結合深度時間序列學習與成本導向決策之資料驅動 (Data-driven) 預燒終止決策架構。針對砷化鎵 (GaAs) 雷射元件之電流衰退資料,本研究建立時間序列分類模型,使模型能夠根據不同測試時間下已觀測到的衰退資訊,逐步判斷產品狀態,模擬實際預燒過程中的終止決策。此外,考量預燒資料通常具有樣本數有限與不良品比例偏低的特性,本研究透過資料擴增方法增加訓練資料的多樣性,降低模型偏向多數類別的情形,並提升其在有限資料下的穩定性。在決策層面,結合成本模型並進行成本軌跡穩定化處理,同時考量測試運行成本與誤判風險損失,建立最佳終止決策機制。
實驗結果顯示,所提出之方法能有效提升早期不良品辨識能力,並在維持產品可靠度的同時,有效降低整體預燒成本。相較於傳統統計方法與既有深度學習方法,本研究提出之架構可使預燒停止時間縮短約六成,並降低整體預燒成本。此外,研究結果亦顯示,當統計分布假設存在偏差時,容易造成分類效能下降,而本研究所提出之架構因不依賴特定統計分布假設,因此在不同衰退情境下具備較佳之決策穩健性與實務應用潛力。
Burn-in test is a critical quality assurance process in high-reliability electronic manufacturing. However, conventional burn-in strategies often rely on statistical degradation models, which may lead to unreliable stopping decisions when defective samples are scarce and degradation behaviors are complex. To address this issue, this study proposes a data-driven and cost-driven framework for estimating the optimal stopping time in burn-in tests. A time-aware GRU model is developed to learn degradation patterns from partially observed sequences, and prefix slicing is used to simulate sequential decisions. SMOTE, transformation-based augmentation, and TimeGAN are applied to mitigate small-sample and class-imbalance problems. The prediction results are integrated with a cost model, while Savitzky--Golay smoothing and PAV-based slope stabilization are used to obtain a stable cost trajectory. Experimental results show that the proposed framework improves early defective-product identification and reduces total burn-in cost. Compared with statistical and CNN-based methods, the proposed approach reduces the stopping time to 757.5 hours and the total cost to 165.25.
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