豐田汽車於2009至2010，在全球召回近一千萬輛汽車，為歷史上最大規模的汽車召回行動。豐田召回事件爆發之際，競爭對手也人人自危，紛紛展開自願性召回行動。豐田總裁選擇在三個月後才出席美國國會聽證會並公開致歉，競爭對手卻在此時推出優惠的促銷方案意圖吸引豐田車主。本研究認為，研究豐田召回事件，必須一併討論其他相關的事件，包含上述的產業間競爭行為，以及美國政府提供的購車優惠，才能以較宏觀的視野，並從危機管理角度探討此一事件的始末。

本研究以豐田汽車為研究對象，探討此次召回事件對於豐田營收與股價的影響。取樣自2005至2010的美國月資料：包括豐田和福特的營收、資產報酬率、股價、美國國內實質生產毛額、利率、消費者物價指數、工業生產指數、與油價。本研究使用迴歸分析的最小平方法分別建立營收與股價兩組模型，並透過共線性檢定、顯著性檢定、以及自我相關檢定以修正模型，並得到符合迴歸分析與統計假設的最終模型。本研究建立營收與股價模型，分別得到調整後R平方值為0.96與0.93，代表兩個模型皆具有良好的解釋能力，而實證研究結果與解釋摘要如下：

1.豐田召回事件造成公司聲譽損失，且對營收具有顯著的負面效果。

2.豐田總裁公開致歉對營收與股價皆呈現顯著的負面影響，可見遲來的解釋以及對消費者認錯，已難挽回流失的消費者信心，仍嚴重影響公司的營收與股價。

3.福特召回行動造成已蒙上陰影的車市雪上加霜，對豐田營收產生顯著的負面效果。

4.福特促銷方案也刺激豐田推出優惠措施，對豐田營收具有顯著的正面影響。

5.美國政府提供民眾購車補貼，由於優惠時效性過短，只能刺激車市短期需求，因此對豐田營收和股價的長時間正面效果皆不顯著。

From 2009 to 2010, Toyota recalled nearly 10 million automobiles worldwide. The largest recall in history was so serious that it could cause a great impact on the global automobile industry. This research analyzes the impacts of the Toyota recall event with other related events, which includes inter-industry competition and the U.S. car rebate program on Toyota’s revenue and stock price. In this way, this research could discuss the whole story with a broader perspective of crisis management.

This study uses the U.S. monthly data from 2005 to 2010 including Toyota’s and Ford’s revenue, ROA, and stock price, as well as real GDP, interest rate, CPI, IPI, and oil price. After using OLS for building models, this research employs statistical tests to improve the models. The revenue and stock price models both have high explanatory power. The empirical results are summarized as follows:

1.Toyota’s recall event caused the loss of reputation and significantly negative effect on its revenue. The Toyota CEO’s apology to customers also had a significantly negative impact on both revenue and stock price.

2.Ford’s recall action made the automobile market worse and caused a significantly negative effect on Toyota’s revenue. However, Ford’s sale promotion stimulated the preferential discount provided by Toyota. It had a significantly positive impact on Toyota’s revenue.

3.The U.S. car allowance rebate system only stimulated the demand for the automobile market in a short term due to the short favorable period. Therefore, the positive impact on Toyota’s revenue and stock price was not significant.

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