中文摘要
在相關金融機構進行授信或投資人進行投資行為之前，必須對於目標公司的財務狀況有所了解，避免誤觸地雷公司而蒙受損失。本研究主要係建構模糊預警模型，以對公司發生財務危機的可能性進行分析預測，提供相關機構或投資人財務危機風險的參考警訊，規避可能遭受的損失。
林金賢等(2004) 建立的模糊專家系統架構只考慮財務面因素，選取三項財務比率（現金流量比率、負債比率和資產報酬率）作為財務危機預警模式的指標變數。本模糊預警模型則選取流動比率、負債比率、稅後淨利率和存貨週轉率、應收帳款週轉率與總資產週轉率的乘積作為財務性模糊輸入變數。另外，選取董監持股%、董監質押%、獨立董監席次、董事長兼總經理、監察人內部化、席次控制%、控制持股%、財務主管異動次數、會計師保留意見等九種和公司治理相關的指標作為積分制的非財務性模糊輸入變數，並由專家制定模糊推論規則庫，建立模糊預警模型的架構。
以軟體實現預警模型，分別計算問題公司和正常公司的風險指標值進行比較和檢定，並設定警訊規範提供使用者參考。風險指標是比較各公司財務狀況的相對性指標，公司發生財務危機的原因錯綜複雜，指標值只代表相對可能性而非絕對必然性，但是指標的趨勢所顯露的公司財務狀況走向的意義更值得重視。
將模糊理論應用於企業管理等領域有其適用之處，其彈性的架構可提供設計者更多的自由度，藉由調整各項要素，使得系統的表現更符合設計者的要求。由實證的結果，我們對本研究的模型進行檢討，思考改善鑑別度和敏感性的方向，並且提出後續研究方向的展望。本研究的貢獻是使用模糊理論考慮包含財務性和非財務性的五大構面以建構預警模型，對於上市櫃電子公司的財務風險提供客觀的評估模式，以便使用者參考財務風險指標決定投資策略。

Abstract
Prior to the investment, the banking institute and the investor should take the financial situation of the target company into consideration to avoid the investment loss. The main goal of this thesis is to construct a fuzzy financial alert model to forecast the possibility of the financial crisis in the corporation. The model result can provide the risk reference of the financial crisis.
Lin(2004) considered only three input factors, including cash flow ratio、debt ratio and total property return ratio. However, our fuzzy financial alert model selects flow ratio、debt ratio and after tax net profit ratio as the financial fuzzy input variables as well as the product of circulation ratios of stock、account receivable and total property. In addition, the non-financial input variable, including 9 elements related to the company management, is also taken into evaluation. The expert then sets up the fuzzy inference rule base to construct the fuzzy financial alert model. Application software is utilized to implement this model and to calculate the corresponding risk indices for the normal group and the risky group. We compare these risk indices to set up the alert criterion for user reference. The risk index indicates the corresponding possibility, not the absolute certainty. However, the index tendency reveals an important meaning to the company financial situation.
Fuzzy theory is applicable to the management field because of its flexibility and design freedom. One of the construction processes is proposed in this research to implement the fuzzy model. It is expected to enhance the system performance by adjusting these flexible factors. Based on the result, we discuss the model properties and propose the improvement direction and the prospective research. The contribution of this research is to provide an investment reference about the financial risk in order that the user is able to waive the financial loss in advance.

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