腸病毒是台灣常見的小兒疾病，多發生於夏季或初秋之時，且流行趨勢具有明顯的季節變化，回顧許多過去的文獻認為，這樣一個變化可能與氣候因素的影響有關，然而目前對於環境中氣候因素所扮演的角色仍不甚了解，因此有許多研究者試圖找出腸病毒流行與氣候因素上的關連性，但鑑於台灣腸病毒研究中少有結合氣候尺度進行時間序列分析的相關探討，為此，希望借由台灣腸病毒監測資料找出其它可能影響腸病毒流行變動之危險因子。
基於上述原因，本文希望能全面探討氣候因素的影響，因此，採用不同面向切入，將氣候的影響分成短期效應以及長期效應，並以台灣疾病管制局腸病毒監測資料進行分析，試圖找出影響腸病毒流行的環境相關危險因子。分析結果顯示，於一般流行之短期效應分析，台北、台中、高雄腸病毒陽性數與前一週到兩週的溫度有正向相關，此外，上半年的流行與前一週學校是否開課有正向相關；下半年的流行則與前幾週的濕度有正相關。長期分析的部分則發現壓力與濕度上有顯著差異，流行年濕度較非流行年高，而壓力則為流行年較非流行年低。
除了短時間的溫度變化會影響腸病毒流行個案數的多寡外，本文也發現濕度與壓力的長期效應可能也是一個影響未來腸病毒是否發生流行的氣候因素。希望本研究的發現可提供政府部門參考，作為未來預測腸病毒是否發生大流行的一個指標。

Enterovirus was a common childhood infection disease in Taiwan. Outbreaks usually occurred in summer or early fall. Enterovirus epidemically has seasonal patterns, and climate was one of the factors that affects the epidemic enterovirus. Nevertheless, enterovirus outbreaks have unapparent association with climate factors, which leads researchers to try even harder to find out relevance in between.To date, few studies linked weather and enterovirus in Taiwan. So We tried to identify the risk factors that may affect enterovirus epidemic by using the data from Centers for disease control surveillance in Taiwan.
The studies are aimed to explore the influence of climatic factors. In order to find out how climate factor impact on enterovirus epidemic, we divide the factors into two dimensions, long-term and short-term effects, to analyze the association between epidemic enterovirus and climatic factors by using Taiwan Centers for disease control surveillance data. In the general epidemic of short-term effect analysis, weekly temperature showed statistically significant association with enterovirus epidemic at lag of 1-2 week in Taipei, Taichung, Kaohsiung. In long-term effect,We also found that humidity was significantly different between epidemic years and non-epidemic years .
Apart from temperature, humidity is a vital importance that causes the prevalence of enterovirus in our studies. These findings suggest that weather parameter could be use as a indicator for epidemic enterovirus to prevent from outbreaks, and as references that help the government predict and take the enterovirus outbreaks under control.

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