2011年3月日本福島核電廠災害，引發各國對於核能安全之關切；有鑑於此，政府於同年11月頒布《新能源政策》，希望可以確保穩定供電、維持合理電價，並達成國際減碳承諾。本研究以系統動態學方法，建立經濟─電力─環境系統模型，並設計策略選項，對《新能源政策》進行電力供需平衡策略之權衡分析，以作為相關單位之參考。
研究中先對台灣在不同之核能商轉方案下，分析未來是否有電力供需失衡之疑慮；其次，分別由供給面、需求面與價格端，研議因應策略，並探討在達成電力供需平衡的狀況下，其對經濟、電力與環境之影響。
依本研究之核能方案模擬顯示，若台灣核一至核三屆齡除役，不論核四是否商轉，在未來均會有電力供需失衡之疑慮；而因應策略模擬結果顯示，僅就電力供需平衡而言，供給面、需求面與價格端之綜合策略皆可有效改善電力供需失衡；但在電力消費之CO2排放方面，上述之綜合策略皆無法達到政府於「永續能源政策綱領」宣示之目標。
模擬結果之政策意涵為：
1. 欲解決電力供需失衡，亦考量經濟發展，除了可在供給面積極發展低碳能源的使用之外，亦可由需求面，藉由技術進步提升能源效率；但其伴隨之代價為二氧化碳排放增加。
2. 欲解決電力供需失衡，亦考量國際減碳承諾，除了可藉由技術進步提升能源效率之外，亦可由價格端提高電力價格，減少電力消費；但其伴隨之代價為對經濟成長將造成影響。

Since the subsequent Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident in 2011, the nuclear power safety and energy policy reform have emerged and became urgent issues on a global scale. In response to the event, the Government issued “The New Energy Policy” at that same year. The policy objectives are to ensure a resilient power supply, to maintain reasonable electricity rate, and to achieve our CO2 reduction commitments to UNFCCC.
Considering the importance of “The New Energy Policy”, it is desirable to conduct full-fledged study as much as possible. The purpose of this study is to develop a Economic-Electricity-Environment model by using System Dynamics approach. Providing trade-offs analysis to discuss the electricity balance strategies. Systematic investigation on “The New Energy Policy” will be implemented.
This study analyzes whether there will be a power gap under the different alternatives of nuclear supply in Taiwan. The scenarios designs with this research are based on “The New Energy Policy”, including the main dimensions like the supply, the demand side and the pricing mechanism. This study will provide trade-offs analysis based on the above scenarios to discuss the electricity balance strategies of Taiwan.
Through the analysis of our research, it shows that if the first, second and third Nuclear Power Plant would to be shut down on the appointed date, there will be a power gap in the future. However, according to the simulation results, it shows that the suspicion of the power gap can be solved by all kinds of scenarios, but cannot achieve our CO2 reduction commitments to UNFCCC.
Regarding to the strategy implications of this study, decision makers can come up with the best choice for Taiwan. Policy implications are:
 Due to the consideration of economic growth, the development of lower carbon energy use should not only be on the supply side, but also improving the energy efficiency with new technology innovations on the demand side. However the cost is the increase of CO2 emissions.
 Considering the promise to a more sustainable environment, the increase of electricity prices with the pricing mechanism can result in a reduction of electricity consumption. However, the cost is an impact on the economic developments of our country.

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