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研究生: 許竹寬
Hsu, Chu-Kuan
論文名稱: 地緣政治風險對上市國籍航空公司財務績效之影響
The Impacts of Geopolitical Risk on the Financial Performance of Listed National Airlines of Taiwan
指導教授: 林軒竹
Lin, Hsuan-Chu
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 經營管理碩士學位學程(AMBA)
Advanced Master of Business Administration (AMBA)
論文出版年: 2023
畢業學年度: 111
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 91
中文關鍵詞: 地緣政治風險中華航空長榮航空財務績效
外文關鍵詞: Geopolitical Risk, China Airlines, EVA Air, Financial Performance
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  • 當保護主義竄升揚起民族大旗,挑戰全球化深耕下的世界經濟,國際制度發生鬆動,遂政治手段韜晦地主導企業利益。臺灣陷在地緣政治熱區內,國家的外交政策左右企業佈局歷歷如繪,本研究摶心揖志國際關係與企業財務績效,以我國上市國籍航空公司為研究標的,秉持最大化股東權益之圭臬,探析地緣政治與財務績效間的正負關聯。
    於焉,從企業風險管理作為研究濫觴,重新解釋全球化前企業總體與個體之風險評估,以因應當下全球化可能腹背受敵的窘境;政治主軸遵循國際關係現實主義霸權穩定論為核心,逐一探討何謂地緣政治,歸納之於航空公司的廣義與狹義地緣政治風險對經營之衝擊。援引美國聯準會(FED)兩位經濟學家研擬之單一國家地緣風險指數(GPR Index)迥異於文獻常見的全球地緣政治風險指數,以布蘭特原油價格、美國地緣政治風險指數和臺灣地緣政治風險指數作為自變數,4項股東權益與避險工具損益率作為應變數,另設5項控制變數,量測與國籍兩大航空公司財務績效的正負關聯性。
    研究結果顯示,取樣期間2013年至2022年長榮航空財務績效受到地緣政治風險影響較中華航空顯著,布蘭特原油價格與美國地緣政治風險指數同時具顯著性負相關。

    When protectionism triggers the nationalism and threatens the global economy as a result of globalization, the international system is weakended and political strategies are employed to control corporate interests. Taiwan is caught in a geopolitical flashpoint, and the nation's foreign policy is influencing the corporate configuration. This study has devoted to international relations and corporate financial performance by examining the positive and negative correlation between geopolitics and financial performance, which uses the listed national airlines as the study as subject, it adheres to maximized shareholders’ equities.
    The study would also reinterpret the risk assessment of pre-globalization firms in general and at the individual level through the prespective of enterprise risk management to address the current globalization dilemma.
    The political axis would follow the realist hegemonic stability theory of international relations as its core which defines geopolitics and summarizes the broad and narrow geopolitical risks faced by airlines in terms of their business impact. In this study, utilized the Brent crude oil price, the U.S. geopolitical risk index, and the Taiwan geopolitical risk index as independent variables; four shareholder equity and hedge profit and loss ratios as dependent variables; and five control variables to measure positive and negative correlations with the finances of the two largest national airlines in Taiwan.
    With a negative correlation between the price of Brent crude oil and the U.S. geopolitical risk index, the study has revealed that EVA Air's financial performance is considerably impacted by geopolitical risk compared to China Airlines.

    摘要I ABSTRACT II 誌謝VI 目錄VII 表目錄IX 圖目錄XI 第一章 緒論1 1.1研究背景2 1.2研究動機5 1.3研究目的6 1.4論文架構6 第二章 文獻回顧與探討12 2.1企業風險管理13 2.1.1政治風險與管理17 2.1.2總體與個體風險18 2.1.3地緣政治與經濟20 2.1.4小結24 2.2航空公司廣義地緣政治風險25 2.2.1供應與環境風險26 2.2.2油價避險29 2.2.3華府與利雅德的石油博弈30 2.2.4小結40 2.3航空公司狹義地緣政治風險41 2.3.1財務與管理風險42 2.3.2 WTO民用航空器採購法44 2.3.3美中臺與修昔底德陷阱46 2.3.4小結51 2.4總結52 第三章 研究方法與設計53 3.1研究架構53 3.2數據設定55 3.3數據來源與定義55 3.4自變數相關性分析60 3.5分析方法與模型建立63 第四章 實證結果65 4.1 敘述統計65 4.2 中華航空實證結果67 4.3 長榮航空實證結果71 4.4 地緣政治風險之影響74 第五章 結論77 5.1 管理意涵77 5.2 研究建議79 5.3 研究貢獻80 5.4 結論80 參考書目82

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