| 研究生: |
楊琇婷 Yang, Hsiu-Ting |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
全球冷陰極管與發光二極體液晶電視創新擴散與市場競爭模式之研究 The Research of Innovation Diffusion and Competitive Model-The Case of CCFL TV and LED TV |
| 指導教授: |
耿伯文
Kreng, Victor-B. |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
管理學院 - 工業與資訊管理學系碩士在職專班 Department of Industrial and Information Management (on the job class) |
| 論文出版年: | 2013 |
| 畢業學年度: | 101 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 66 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 創新擴散 、Lotka-Volterra競爭模式 、發光二極體液晶電視 、冷陰極管液晶電視 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | Diffusion of innovation, Lotka-Volterra competition model, LED TV, CCFL TV |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:116 下載:1 |
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在輕薄、節能、綠色環保趨勢下,液晶電視市場採用LED(Light Emitting Diode)背光的比重不斷提高,而傳統採用CCFL(Cold Cathode Fluorescent Lamp)為背光的液晶電視機種出貨量則逐步下修。以LED TV 命名與綠色環保之教育性行銷,讓使用LED 背光模組的電視成為高品質、高畫質的代名詞,不但扮演支撐起液晶電視價格的要角,更引發液晶電視發展史之革命。
本研究採用Bass Model 探討LED TV 技術創新擴散現象,並探討其區域性之差異,結果發現,LED TV在各區域的創新係數(p)比較發現,日本的創新係數(p)最高,而北美次之,亞洲區域最低;此現象是由於已開發區域的液晶電視滲透率已幾近飽和,各家電廠商必須透過更創新的規格來刺激消費者換機或新增電視機;相對於新興國家,其液晶電視的滲透率仍低,其市場仍處於液晶電視取代CRT電視的時期,而液晶電視的規格則不是重點。另外,各區的模仿係數(q)以日本最高,中國次之,而北美最低,且發現各區域在模仿係數(q)皆明顯大於創新係數(p)許多,這現象與日本及中國政府施行的節能補貼政策有關。接著,本研究針對模型計算的市場潛量與本研究觀察期間之實際出貨量做比較,並計算期間滲透率,發現日本在LED TV的滲透率已達100%,次之為中國的56%,而北美與歐洲則在46%~47%左右的水準。本研究另應用Lotka-Volterra競爭模式,建構LED TV與CCFL TV彼此競爭關係,結果發現,CCFL TV 與LED TV兩者之間存在著純競爭(Pure competition),也就是你死我活的競爭關係。
Under the trend of being light,energy saving, and green, the proportion of using LED (Light Emitting Diode) as the backlight for LCD TV is increasing while the use of traditional CCFL (Cold Cathode Fluorescent Lamp) backlight is decreasing. Meanwhile, naming after LED TV and the green educational marketing have made LED TV the synonym of high quality and high definition, driving it to prop up the LCD TV price and trigger the LCD TV revolution.
This study adopts the Bass Model to discuss the diffusion of the innovative LED TV technology, and explore the regional discrepancy. The results of this study reveal that Japan has the highest LED TV innovation coefficient (p), followed by North America, while the Asian region is the lowest. This situation tells the truth that in the developed regions, the LCD TV penetration has been so saturated that all the market players have to constantly launch new innovative products to stimulate consumers to replace TVs. In contrast, developing regions are low in the LCD TV penetration, and are in the stage of replacing CRT TVs with LCD TVs, thus not quite concerned about the LCD TV specification. As for the imitation coefficient (q), Japan also takes the lead, followed by China, while North America is the lowest. however, in all the regions, the imitation coefficient (q) is much greater than the innovation coefficient (p), a situation that has something to do with the energy subsidies by the Japanese and Chinese Governments. After comparing the model-calculated market potential figures against the real market shipment volume measured during the study, this study has found that Japan has already had a 100% penetration rate, followed by China's 56% , while North America and Europe have a rate between 46%~47%. This study has also used the Lotka-Volterra competition model to construct the pattern of competition between LED TV and CCFL TV, and found that there exists a pure competition between the two.
書籍:
1. Rogers, E. M. (1962) Diffusion of Innovation, TheFree Press ,New York
2. Rogers, E. M. (1983) Diffusion of Innovations,The Free Press,New York
Journal:
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PP. 342-365
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8. Kreng ,V.B.,& Wang ,H.T.(2009) "The Interaction Of The Market Competition Between LCD TV And PDP TV ",Computers & Industrial Engineering, Vol.57 No.4,PP.1210-1217
9. Kim , J. , Lee,D.J.,& Ahn,J.(2006) "A Dynamic Competition Analysis on the Korean Mobile Phone Market Using Competitive diffusion model", Computers & Amp;Industrial Engineering,Vol.51 No.1,PP.174-182
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14. Mansfield , E. (1961) "Technical Change and the Rate of Imitation",Econometrica,Vol.29 No.4,PP. 741-766
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23. 葉哲良教授(2012) “全球與我國LED照明產業環境 (政策、市場、產業與技術) 趨勢與我國產業競爭優勢來源及策略建議分析報告” 清華大學動力機械工程學系
碩博士論文:
1. 林志勳(民100) “全球高亮度LED 市場趨勢分析”,IEK產業經濟與趨勢研究中心
2. 王聖閔(民100) “電視機錄放影機製造業基本資料”,台灣經濟研究院產經資料庫
3. 施順仁(民99) “田口實驗法於TFT-LCD 之PI 製程改善研究”,逢甲大學資訊電機工程研究所
4. 張柏寧(民90) “液晶薄膜相位光學鑑定分析與研究”,國立中央大學物理研究所
5. 張綺紋(民100) “台灣 LED 背光電視產業市場分析與營運績效研究”,國立中央大學產業經濟研究所
6. 廖育斌(民98) “中小尺寸OLED 顯示器之產業分析”,逢甲大學經營管理所
7. 謝芳玫(民99) “合資企業分享式庫存管理系統發展-以LCD TV供應鏈為例”,中原大學工業與系統工程研究所
8. 林雅蘭 (民98) “LED 背光模組設計”,國立中央大學光電科學與工程所
9. 林應輝 (民(101)”以CCFL背光模組與LED 背光模組之差異研究”,北台灣科學技術學院嵌入式系統產業研發所
研究機構Report:
1. DisplaySearch (2010) “Quarterly LED & CCFL Backlight Cost Report”
2. NPD DisplaySearch(2012)” Advanced Quarterly Global TV Shipment and Forecast Report”
3.拓墣產業研究所(2012) “在環保節能的趨勢下看LED TV 背光模組之發展”
網站:
1. 影像顯示科技知識平台” LCD (Liquid Crystal Display; 液晶顯示器)” http://display.ee.ntu.edu.tw/dtkp/html/modules.php?name=Encyclopedia&op=detail&tid=2
2. 何致中(民101) "2012年下半液晶電視產品趨勢",digital Time;http://www.digitimes.com.tw/tw/dt/n/shwnws.asp?CnlID=10&id=0000292460_C7K51PBY5ZO59U1Y2HIES
3. 謝忠利 (民99 ) “經營模式推陳出新 LCD TV產業備受關注”;新電子;http://www.mem.com.tw/article_content.asp?sn=1001130001
4. 姚嘉洋、張世文(民100) “光芒閃耀的LED照明”,電子技術雜誌櫃, http://mag.nownews.com/article.php?mag=11-58-5641#ixzz2SqYfKyqs
5. 友達光電官方網站, http://auo.com/?sn=47&lang=zh-TW