本文研究範圍為淮河水系中河南光州、安徽鳳陽、江蘇淮安三府州。光州、鳳陽為淮河中上游的米糧產區，糧食生產有餘，足以外銷他省；而淮安位處淮河下游，糧食生產不足，需靠外地米糧補充，透過淮河水系將三地之間的米糧往來流通，以有餘供不足。目前學者在進行糧食市場整合研究時，多由同一行政區畫、自然地理、糧食作物分布與輪作制度等角度來進行探究，尚未有從同一糧食流通（運輸）體系來研究者。故本文研究目的，正是透過淮河水系這三府州的米價數列與稻米流通的情況，來探究位於同一糧食流通（運輸）體系的地區，是否會形成高度整合的糧食市場。
關於「糧食市場整合」的議題，學者探究的方式有二，一是從量化的糧價數據搭配施堅雅「經濟巨區理論」進行研究者，如王業鍵、謝美娥、張瑞威、馬立博、陳春聲、李中清、李明珠、濮德培、王國斌、鄭生芬、李建德、陳金月、黃美芳等；二是從質性的文字史料中描繪出一個或多個糧食市場流通路線，來研究市場整合程度者，如鄧亦兵、王業鍵、張瑞威等。多數學者兼採量化與質性研究方法來描繪糧食流通路線，並研究其糧食市場整合。因此，筆者將依循前人的研究方法，運用王業鍵主編的「清代糧價資料庫」，從中選取三府州1740-1795年的米價原始數據，進行統計分析，並搭配專書、地方志、宮中檔奏摺、《清實錄》等文字史料，來驗證1740-1795年間同處淮河水系的三府州糧食市場整合情況。
筆者先從「清代糧價資料庫」取得光州、鳳陽及淮安三府州1740-1795年的米價原始數據，建立一組糧價時間數列，經可靠性評估及遺漏值補值後，運用統計方法，分析此一數列的長期趨勢及相關分析。在長期趨勢分析中，觀察到三府州米價皆呈現緩步上升，且變動趨勢極為相似，可間接證實三府州的米糧市場呈現高度整合。而由地方志、「清代宮中檔奏摺及軍機處檔摺件」與「漢籍全文資料庫」等史料紀錄中關於水、旱、蝗等自然災害，來考察其與糧價變動的關聯性，發現大部分極端價格出現的當年或前幾年，都有相應的自然災害發生，足以證實此糧價時間數列是可靠的。
相關分析的結果，鳳陽與淮安在1740-1795年間的相關係數值為0.804；而1749-1795年間，光州與鳳陽府相關係數值達0.762，光州與淮安府相關係數值達0.787，鳳陽與淮安在這時段的相關係數值達0.815，每組相關係數值皆接近0.8或以上，且數值皆為正值，表示三府州的米價波動密切相關。由方志、奏摺、史籍的文字記載，可看出光州、鳳陽及淮安三府州因同屬淮河水系，光州、鳳陽為糧食產區，透過船載貨運，將多餘米糧販售至糧食不足的淮安，故三府州間米糧流通頻繁、密切。因此，在相關分析與文字史料相互驗證後，足以證明光州、鳳陽、淮安三府州間已形成了以淮河水運為主的糧食市場整合。
本文雖開創了以糧食流通（運輸）體系來研究市場整合的先例，但僅以淮河為研究個案，若未來研究者能再以黃河、長江、大運河為研究課題，探究位於同一糧食流通（運輸）體系上的市場是否呈現高度整合情況，更能豐富清代糧食市場整合研究的新面向。另外，本文所採用的糧食作物為稻米，但淮河流域主要糧食作物尚有大麥、小麥、高粱，若未來研究者能再透過二麥、高粱等旱地作物的價格數據來進行研究，或許可更加強化此結論。
最後，本文研究顯示，鳳陽、淮安同屬華北巨區，而光州位處長江中游巨區，且主要糧食作物為稻米，與鳳陽、淮安以二麥為主不同，但相關結果卻呈現市場整合程度高，與施堅雅所言「各巨區間各自孤立」的論點不同。究其原因，應是三府州雖跨越不同省分、巨區，但皆位於同一個運輸路線上，淮河貫穿三府州，將上游盛產的米糧透過船載運銷至下游的市場，再將市場聚集的日常雜貨透過回空船隻銷往上游，因此上、下游的區域透過相同的水路運輸系統，形成了高度整合的糧食市場，打破省分與巨區的限制，也證實位於同一糧食流通（運輸）體系上，就會形成高度整合的糧食市場。

The Research on Grain Market Integration in Guangzhou, Fengyang and Huaian Prefectures in China during the 18th Century

Author: Ying-Ju Chen
Advisor: Mei-E Hsieh
Institute of History, College of Liberal Arts

SUMMARY

This paper aims to investigate the grain market relationship among three prefectures, namely, Guangzhou in Henan Province, Fengyang in Anhui Province, and Huaian in Jiangsh Province. As the main regions of rice production, Guangzhou and Fengyang, located at the middle and upper streams of Huaihe River, can even export their superfluous grains to other prefectures. However, Huaian, at the lower stream of Huaihe River, in contrast, needs grain supply from other prefectures due to its rice production deficit. Accordingly, the main purpose of this paper is to discover whether regions under the same transportation system will become a highly integrated grain market. Based on the data of rice prices in these three prefectures from 1740 to 1795, attained from The Database of Grain Prices in Qing Dynasty, together with publication works, region records, memorials and reports to Emperors and documents from Scripta Sinica Database, this paper shows both qualitatively and quantitatively that these three prefectures are proved to be highly integrated in terms of grain market relationship.

Key words: Guangzhou, Fengyang, Huaian, rice price, grain market integration

INTRODUCTION

The paper attempts to delve into the grain market integration phenomenon among regions located at the same transportation system through the interaction between rice price series and rice distribution in Guangzhou in Henan Province, Fengyang in Anhui Province, and Huaian in Jiangsh Province. In literature, the issue of grain market integration is normally dealt with in two ways. Some scholars, such as Yeh-Chien Wang, Mei-E Hsieh, Ruei-Wei Chang, Robert B. Marks, Chun-Sheng Chen, James Z. Lee, Lillian M. Li, Peter C. Perdue, and R. Bin Wong, do research by quantitative rice prices, along with Economic Macroregion Theory by G. William Skinne, while others, such as Yi-Ping Teng, Yeh-Chien Wang, and Ruei-Wei Chang, analyze the degree of market integration from qualitative documents to depict one or more distribution routes of grain market.
Most scholars illustrate the grain distribution route and grain market integration both quantitatively and qualitatively. Therefore, following previous methods of studies, this paper chooses three prefectures to be the research targets, and analyzes the raw data of rice prices in these three prefectures from 1740 to 1795, mainly employing The Database of Grain Prices in Qing Dynasty edited by Yeh-Chien Wang and publication works, region records, memorials and reports to Emperors and Office of Military and Political Affairs, and documents from Scripta Sinica Database. All these findings lead to the conclusion that from 1740 to 1795, the three prefectures in the Huainhe River System display high grain market integration.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The research method of this paper is binary. Quantitatively, the paper establishes a time series of grain prices based on the raw data of rice price in Guangzhou, Fengyang, and Huaian prefectures, attained from The Database of Grain Prices in Qing Dynasty. By means of reliable evaluations and repairs of missing values, this paper also analyzes the long-term trend of this time series and its relative analysis through statistic methods. Qualitatively, the paper focuses on the degree of grain market integration in these three prefectures by explaining the statistic results with region records, publication works, memorials and reports to Emperors and Office of Military and Political Affairs, and documents from Scripta Sinica Database.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Given the grain price series in Guangzhou, Fengyang, and Huaian prefectures from 1740 to 1795, it has been observed by long-term trend analysis that the rice price in these three prefectures displays a relatively slow rise, and the variation trend shows great similarity, in turn proving that the grain market among Guangzhou, Fengyang, and Huaian prefectures is highly integrated. On the other hand, according to region records, memorials and reports to Emperors and Office of Military and Political Affairs, and documents from Scripta Sinica Database, the correlation between price variation and natural disasters demonstrates that most of the extreme prices take place with corresponding natural disasters, which further evidencing that the grain price series is reliable.
It is illustrated from the relative analyses that the correlation coefficient between Fengyang and Huaian from 1740 to 1795 is 0.804; in similarity, the correlation coefficient is 0.762 between Guangzhou and Fengyang from 1749 to 1795, 0.787 between Guangzhou and Huaian, and 0.815 between Fengyang and Huaian. The correlation coefficient values of each group are not only positive but close to or over 0.8, which concludes close correlation of the rice price fluctuation among these three prefectures. Along with region records, memorials, and historical documents, it can be discovered that Guangzhou, Fengyang, and Huaian belong to Huaihe River System. Moreover, the former two are the main regions of grain production with excess stock of grains to be shipped to Huaian, which leading to the consequence of frequent connection among these three prefectures. Therefore, having cross-examined the relative analyses and the historical documents, it is undoubtedly evident that Guangzhou, Fengyang, and Huaian are formed as a grain market region.

CONCLUSION

A full-fledged research on grain price should consist of two related levels, basic and extended. In this paper, the basic level is fulfilled by the construction of rice price series based on the price data from 1740 to 1795. On the other hand, the extended level is accomplished by the analysis of time series based on the investigation of the long-term trend of rice price among the three prefectures in the 18th century. Within the two-level analysis structure, it has apparently concluded that the three prefectures has unified as an integrated grain market. For further research, several topics can be more developed on the basis of this paper. For example, this paper has initiated a new method, that is, grain distribution system to discuss the integration of grain market. However, the scope under research is limited to Huaihe River System. If future researchers can broaden the scope of discussion to Huanghe River, Changjiang River, and the Great Canal to see if the integration phenomenon takes place, that way, the research on grain market integration will definitely enrich the current studies. Moreover, the data in this paper is primarily restricted to rice, but along the Huaihe River, there are other crops, such as barley, wheat, and broomcorn. Similarly, if further research can incorporate these corps into the price analysis, perhaps it can strengthen the conclusion drawn in this paper.
The conclusion drawn in this paper is summarized as follows. First, Fengyang and Huaian both belong to Huabei macroregion and mainly grow barley and wheat, whose relative analysis result presents a highly integrated market relation. Guangzhou, on the other hand, belongs to Changjiang macroregion, but contrary to the other two prefectures, grows rice. To our surprise, the relative analysis result turns out highly integrated as well. This finding contradicts the argument proposed by Chien-Ya Shih, that is, “High market integration appears within macroregions, and isolation occurs among each macroregion.” The seeming contradiction may be attributed to the fact that in spite of different provinces and macroregions theses three prefectures lie in, they all belong to the same transportation system, namely, the Huaihe River Basin. The grains from the upper stream can be sent to the market at the lower stream by ship. In exchange, the empty ships can be loaded with groceries and then exported to the market at the upper stream, thus forming a highly integrated relation, and so breaking the boundary of provinces and macroregion.

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