鐵路安全是相當重要的，因為鐵路運輸具有車輛重以及速度快兩樣特性，因此只要發生重大事故，就會造成嚴重的傷亡。過去的報告指出，鐵路司機員乃是鐵路安全中相當重要的一環，許多的事故均是因為司機員的人為因素所造成，因此若想提升鐵路安全，勢必從司機員這裡切入。自動列車防護系統ATP是近年來世界各地鐵路公司陸續開始安裝的列車安全裝置，目前主要的作用在於不讓司機員做出不合乎規定的駕駛行為或是在司機員逾越規定時，做出導正的動作，以防止列車發生意外事故。

但是雖然安裝了自動列車防護系統ATP，研究仍指出使用自動列車防護系統ATP會有一些負面的狀況發生，如果自動列車防護系統發生故障，而司機員又做出不符合規定的虛驚事件，就有可能發生事故。因此本研究利用自動列車防護系統ATP取得的記錄中，找出虛驚事件，並利用廣義估計方程式進行歸因，找出造成司機員虛驚事件行為發生的人、車、路、環境因素，並提出建議加以改進。

　　研究結果顯示，司機員的虛驚事件確實與人、車、路、環境有相關。本研究發現「減速過慢」以及「超速」兩個虛驚事件(Near miss)，都有其顯著對應的發生因素，其中司機員記錄在所有模式中均顯著，代表在自動列車防護系統中越多記錄的司機員越容易發生虛驚事件；而駕駛年資越高則越不容易發生減速過慢，但是卻越容易發生超速；而車種上的差異也有可能造成虛驚事件；環境因素如路段、下坡、以及下雨也有可能發生虛驚事件。

Rail safety is very important, because trains are heavy and fast. Their kinetic energy means that the consequences of an accident are severe. In past investigations, train driver was one of the important factors in rail safety, because many accidents were caused by human factors of the train driver. So, if we want to improve rail safety, we must begin from the train driver. Recently, many railway companies started to install the Automatic Train Protection (ATP) in the driving cabs in order to prevent train drivers’ lapses and correct some incorrect driving behaviors to avoid major accidents.

But even if the rail system were under Automatic Train Protection’s protect, there were still some potential negative if we depended on the system too much. If the system failed and the train driver was doing an incorrect behavior, an accident might happen. So we use the ATP’s records to find out the near miss incidents, and then use Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) to attribute possible reasons from engineer (driver), train, track and environment.

The results shows the near miss incidents and those four factors were significant related. There are two kinds of near miss incidents: “Late Brake” and “Over Speed”. Drivers’ records were significant in both near miss incidents and if seniority rose up would cause less Late Brake and more Over Speed incidents. Furthermore, train types and environment factors like slope and rain would also cause near miss incidents.

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其他參考資料
1. BBC News - German train crash kills nine: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/632512.stm
2. BBC News - Train crash kills 35 in Valencia: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/5141542.stm
3. NTSB Publications: http://www.ntsb.gov/publictn/R_Acc.htm
4. Wikipedia - List of rail accidents: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_rail_accidents
5. Wikipedia - Near miss (Safety): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Near_miss_(safety)
6. 日本國土交通省 – 航空、鐵道事故調查委員會: http://araic.assistmicro.co.jp/araic/railway/report/detail.asp?ID=1682