隨著全球化貿易日益頻繁，企業面對的是全球的競爭對手，因此供應鏈管理也就越來越重要。有效的供應鏈管理可以幫助供應鏈上各成員將正確數目與品質的產品在正確的時間及地點送達正確的顧客手中。「長鞭效應」是供應鏈中常見的現象，所謂的長鞭效應就是供應鏈下游需求有些微的改變，會造成供應鏈上游訂購量及存貨量較大的波動，且是越往上游波動起伏越大。混沌需求型態下的長鞭效應並未被深入研究及探討，因此本篇論文主要針對混沌需求型態的供應鏈探討其長鞭效應的成因。事實上並非一定要非常特殊的商品才具有混沌需求的特性，舉凡像是冷氣機和電源供應器相關裝置等等，都已經有學者證實其需求為混沌系統。因混沌型態的需求特性，導致需求更不容易預測，因而增加供應商的存貨或零售商的訂貨量，使得長鞭效應的情形更為嚴重，因此混沌系統的需求不穩定的特性對於長鞭效應的影響也是本篇論文所要探討的重點。
本研究利用Gupta改良之Mackey-Glass方程式進行需求端數學模式的建立，在供應端則定義最佳訂貨量為使預期存貨達到管理人員訂定之目標存貨量，最後根據這兩個數學模型推導出能夠衡量需求端和供應端長鞭效應的兩個衡量指標值，藉此找出影響混沌需求型態下長鞭效應的主要成因，並探討兩指標值背後的管理意義。
經由模式推導及實證結果分析，影響混沌需求型態下長鞭效應的主要因素為前置時間，且前置時間的長短和兩衡量指標值有顯著的正相關。也就是說前置時間越長則會使得需求和供應兩端長鞭效應的情形越顯著。最後經由敏感度分析可以找出管理人員須盡力將前置時間控制在變動幅度較小的可接受範圍內，並且讓管理者了解模式建立時各參數值設定的合理數值。

Supply chain management is getting more important to an enterprise because of the blooming international business and the intensive competition. The efficient SCM can create common benefit among suppliers, distributors, retailers, and other firms within the supply chain. Bullwhip effect is a well known phenomenon in the supply chain and it makes the order costs or the holding costs of the members in the supply chain increasing. Previous researches haven't profoundly studied the bullwhip effect based on chaotic demand. Thus, this research will study the bullwhip effect based on chaotic demand in a supply chain.
In this study, we use the adjusted Mackey-Glass equation as the demand model, and the best order quantity that makes the expected inventory up to the target inventory is obtained. Finally, the main cause of the bullwhip effect based on chaotic demand is found by using the demand model and the supply model.
Through empirical analysis, it is found that the major factor of the bullwhip effect with chaotic demand is lead time. The longer the length of lead time is, the more distinct the bullwhip effect is. Finally, the acceptable scope of lead time and the parameters of the model by using sensitive analysis are obtained.

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